The Rangers return from their bye-week to practice later today and play the Islanders on Saturday. Tomorrow’s game kicks off a stretch of eight contests in 13 days beginning with back-to-back games against the Islanders and Penguins. Included within this stretch is the team’s annual California road trip, which leads into the All-Star break.
Left unknown is what the forward lines and defense dive pairings will be. Prior to the bye-week, Vinni Lettieri was called up to replace Chris Kreider, who will be sidelined at least six weeks following rib resection surgery, while Pavel Buchnevich was scratched Sunday against Las Vegas. The latter move has been dissected enough. I have given my view several times, but if the goal was to send a message to the young winger, it likely has been received and he should be in the lineup tomorrow.
On the blue line, Brendan Smith was rightfully sat Sunday, replaced by Steven Kampfer, who had a solid, steady performance. The question now is who plays and sits and whoever is in the lineup, what are the pairings. The latter has seemingly been an issue all season as coach Alain Vigneault and Lindy Ruff have struggled to try and find combinations that work and succeed with each pair-mate assisting the other.
If Kevin Hayes is over his upper-body injury, he will be in his usual second-line center spot. Mika Zibanejad is the top center and Boo Nieves the fourth liner. David Desharnais most probably fills the third line role. With Lettieri up, New York has an extra forward. To me, go with Carey-Nieves-Fast on the fourth line. The top trio should restore Buch-Zib-Zucc, the wingers each needing to find and up their game and production. Hayes should be with Miller and Nash, leaving Grabner and Vesey with Desharnais, making Lettieri the odd-man out. But Lettieri is one of the few with a shot-first mentality, desperately needed on this team. So I would put Lettieri in for Desh, have Nieves center the third line, move Carey back to center on the fourth line and have Lettieri and Fast join him there. Feel free toox and match on the bottom-nine and this shows a real good third line center or second liner that scores is needed.
The blue line, where do we start. Justin Tasch wrote today “production from their defensemen is down. They have 77 points from defensemen through 42 games compared to 93 points at this point last season.” Kevin Shattenkirk was brought in to help up that production, but has just three power-play points and six points overall in the last 24 games. As a whole, the defense is likely the biggest disappointment in the team.
Smith has failed to repeat what he showed after his acquisition last year and in the playoffs. With New York counting on him and better play from Shattenkirk, that’s a third of the blueline struggling. Then add in Ryan McDonagh regressing and by far failing to meet expectations, Nick Holden spending much of the year as McDonagh’s pair-mate and to an extent Brady Skjei’s growth not hitting the plateau we figured he would reach in his second full year and it spells out why the back line has had issues.
The best or at least most consistent defenseman this season has been Marc Staal. No one would have expected that after the season, when it sure looked like either he or Dan Girardi would be voted off the Island. The NY Post laid out why Staal has to an extent risen from the dead last year,
The one thing Vigneault pointed to is Staal’s ability to move the puck quickly, something that had never really been a strength of his game but it is what the coach demands of his defensemen in order to play that up-tempo style he so covets.
“I’ve always liked the way he defends. I know he’s got a great stick, he’s strong on his one-on-one’s. But I will say that so far this year, I find him more effective with the puck,” Vigneault said. “He’s been able to find the easy open outlet quicker, which has enabled him and his ‘D’ pair to spend a little bit less time in our zone. He’s had tough matchups, he’s handled them well. I really like the way he came to camp, his attitude, and the work that he put in so far.”
Here is what I would try and I have said this before: play McDonagh with Staal or repair McD and ‘Kirk to see if chemistry can be built. If McD is with ‘Kirk, play Skjei with Staal or possibly even with Kampfer, through if Smith gets back in, he likely will be paired with Skjei. The problem then becomes the third line; dependent on the first two pairings. The “extra d-men” will likely be from Holden, Smith or Kampfer and possibly Staal, impacted by the top-four. I might go Holden-Kampfer, sitting Smith, but if Smith is in, then sit Holden and see what Kampfer has, though Holden at least possibly could provide some production offensively.
The Rangers’ offense as a whole has hit the skids. Earlier in the season, the power play picked up the banner when 5v5 the team struggled. But the man-advantage has gone ice cold, 8-for-69 over the last 24 games. That decline in production takes on even more focus because the team can’t score 5v5. One main culprit of that lack of offense is Rick Nash. As Tasch pointed out, 16 of Nash’s 17 points this season came during a 21-game stretch. He had just one point in his first 11 games and has zero points in his last 10 games. Those wild swings, especially on the downward side, coupled with the questions surrounding just how far this team can go is why Nash’s name is mentioned by many as a possible trade deadline casualty to bring back assets for the future since his hefty contract expires.
Unless the offense starts to percolate, either at even strength or on the man-advantage, both would be the ideal, the team is unlikely to go anywhere even if Henrik Lundqvist and Ondrej Pavelec continue to play otherworldly. Nash has become the poster boy for the offensive ills but several others - and in fact, most of the front line - has been challenged in that regard.
Defensively, ick. Tasch wrote, and it’s a point that we all know too well, “beginning with their Nov. 15 game in Chicago through Wednesday, which encompasses the Rangers’ last 24 games, they’re allowing a league-worst 35.79 shots against per game, surrendering at least 40 shots against eight times. They have the second-worst 5-on-5 shot-attempts differential at -280.” Even if the offense wakes up, if the above isn’t fixed broadly, sooner or later the goalies will crack and the one-goal losses will become larger ones. Lundqvist and Pavelec have bailed out the blue line and forwards for their defensive woes but it’s not a recipe for future success, even if they make the post-season.
One positive has been the penalty kill, which ranks fifth in the NHL and first in the Eastern Conference at 83.7 percent (as of Tuesday). As Tasch noted, the Rangers have not allowed more than one power-play goal in 40 consecutive games (and only once in 42 games this season). One bit of cold water I will throw on that number is that I have seen cracks in the penalty kill, as it hasn’t been as dominant as earlier in the season. If breakdowns occur in this aspect of the team’s game, coupled with the other issues, the impact will be exponential.
The trade deadline is February 26. Before then, we should have a good idea in what direction the team will go. The remainder of this month and first half of February should provide a true indication, either confirming what we already know and pushing the determination in a certain direction. Settle in, the next few weeks will be interesting.
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