Part I of my post-mortem and tear down blogs was
posted Monday . Part 2,
posted yesterday , covers defensemen, save for Dan Boyle, who I wrote about in Part I. Part 3, here, covers some of the forwards, consisting of Nash, Stepan, Brassard, Zuccarello, Miller and Kreider. Hayes, to keep some intrigue, and the remainder of the forwards are in Part IV.
Let's get right to it with
Rick Nash. The big forward tallied just 15 goals in 60 games after posting 42 in 79 games last season. Nash missed 22 games, most of it were due to a knee injury, and struggled after his return to the lineup, tallying just three goals but seven assists in 24 games. His 15 goals and 21 assists were career-lows. In his first two years in New York, Nash scored 21 goals in 44 games in 2012-13 and 26 in 65 games in 2013-14.
Beyond the drop in production, the negatives against Nash include his vanishing act at times in the playoffs. In addition, Nash has two years left on his contract at $7.8 million per season; at the end of which he will be 34 years old. Nash's contract includes limited no-trade protection. He would have to name 10 to 12 teams he would approve a trade to if requested by general manager Jeff Gorton. Of course, that list might be malleable, as it might have originally included teams that now might be acceptable based upon changes in that organization the past few seasons. For example, and not saying this will happen or is the case, but let's say his no-trade list included Buffalo or Edmonton. If a team such as that needed a veteran presence, willing to play both ends of the ice and was willing to take on salary, each could be a decent landing spot. Again, I repeat, this is purely hypothetical and speculation of course is on him going to Toronto.
Interestingly enough, Nash has 18 points his last 24 playoff games, though five of those occurred in one game last year. Against Pittsburgh, with New York struggled to score, Nash had a hand in four of the 10 goals, tallying two goals and two assists in five games. He still plays both ends of the ice, and while the team's penalty kill regressed mightily, he can be a force there.
This won't be an easy decision. Nash brings a ton of intangibles, which will be attractive to suitors. Plus, I don't think he is washed out as a scorer. He will need to get in even better shape to deal with his increasing age. Nash's trade likelihood may well depend on what happens with G and/or Staal as well as Yandle. If one goes and cap space is created, then Nash likely stays. If not, then like Marian Gaborik, he could go to bring in pieces and create cap space, even if some money has to be eaten. Two years, even at that money, isn't completely unmanageable, but if the team opts to revamp and change the complexion of the team, Nash will be even more at risk, especially if his return wouldn't bring pennies on the dollar.
One possible landing spot, as mentioned by others, is Toronto, especially if they miss out on Steven Stamkos. Nash would give the team a two-way veteran presence with a hard working attitude and leadership for the young kids like Nylander and Marner. If not, maybe St. Louis in a deal for local product, Kevin Shattenkirk. but the further the Blues go in the playoffs the less likely a deal like this might become. Another landing spot that would excite the Blueshirt faithful is Montreal for someone like Max Pacioretty, but that probably is a pipe dream.
Derek Stepan is slated to be paid $6.5 mil for five more seasons. He closed the season on a roll, tallying 15 points his last 10 games to finish with 22 goals and 31 assists in 72 games. Stepan's season might have brought even higher production but he missed 10 games with broken ribs in late-November into December and struggled upon his return with just one assists in six games. at one point, he had 19 points in 36 games but posted 34 his next 36 games. Stepan tallied both of New York's goals in the game 1 loss to Pittsburgh but was shutout the rest of the series.
Stepan is the team's most defensively responsible center and one of their best passers. But his lack of foot speed is very apparent and questions remain if he is a 1a or 1b or #2 center. Stepan has tallied at least 44 points each of his first six seasons but at times, you are left wanting and expecting more. Plus, while he normally is excellent on the PK, this year he struggled. To me, Stepan should be safe, based upon his age, his two-way play and right-handed shot. But creating cap room may trump all, which could mean that he ends up on the block for a sniper, especially if Nash goes, and he might be the most coveted in a deal. If not Stepan, then it could be..
Derick Brassard, who is slated to make $5 mil per for three more years. Big Game Brass did have four points in the Pittsburgh series, but he was invisible far too often. When he was on the ice, he was grossly outplayed by whoever he was matched against, as his defensive failings were on constant display. after scoring 19 goals and 41 assists in the first year of his deal, Brassard had 27 goals and 31 assists this year. Seeing how good his shot is, you just wish Brassard would shoot more but that isn't always his game.
The same questions I raised on Stepan apply to Brassard. He too could be a cap creation casualty. A decision on Brassard may depend on just how much change and turnover is desired. His skill set and decent salary for at worst a #2 center should bring back a healthy return. I would say is 55-45 he returns, but I wouldn't be shocked if he goes, though he does have an NTC, which could make any deal complicated.
Mats Zuccarello, who will make $4.5 mil for the next three years, made a miraculous recovery from his scary injury in Game 5 of the 2015 playoffs against Pittsburgh. He scored a career-high 26 goals and added 35 assists for a career-high 61 points. Zucc had a playoff to forget against Pittsburgh, with just a goal and an assist along with a minus-two rating, those though numbers don't really reflect just how difficult of a series he had.
Zucc and Brass used to be a potent duo, showing offensive chemistry. But their defensive lapses resulted in a breakup during the season. At times they were reunited to try and kickstart the offense but then had to be separated again. One defensive aspect about Zucc's game that was positive was his willingness to never give up on a play. Several times he was able to break up rushes by using his long stick while back checking to thwart chances. Zucc is going nowhere. His sublime passing skills, power play ability and energy, let alone his scoring prowess, mean he will be a top-six player again.
The player who likely made the most strides this year was
J.T. Miller. After showing signs of a break out in last year's playoffs, Miller took off this season, notching 22 goals and 21 assists. AV finally showed confidence in Miller, who rewarded him and the team with a stellar season. Miller has a mixture of skill and strength, willing to get his nose dirty and score greasy goals. He made just 874k this season and as an RFA, might not get a huge raise. But if GM Jeff Gorton was smart, he would lock him up now for several seasons, maybe three at $3-$3.5 mil per.
Onto the gold dust twins, the K and K Boys,
Kreider and Kevin Hayes (who will be covered in Part IV). Kreider was invisible for most of the first part of the season, but came on late. He finished the year with 21 goals, including 10 in a 20-game stretch, and 22 assists. But his performance and lack of growth left us wanting more.
Kreider would appear to be the perfect prototypical power forward, possessing great speed and strength. If you point him down the wing and tell him to head to the net, he's fine. Any form of required creativity and you get what we saw most of the first part of the season, floundering. That said, a look behind the early lack of production revealed a player driving possession and chances, which he converted later in the season. Kreider, an RFA, made $2.475 mil in the second season of the two year deal he signed in the 2014 offseason.
When he is going right, he is a beast. If not, you scratch your head and wonder what the hell is going on. Kreider has one more deal left before he becomes a UFA, so NY has to decide do you go one year (which would be crazy), 2-3 years (more likely), long term (somewhat remote) or deal him, possibly with a lousy contract to create room. Kreider would draw a ton of interest if he was made available. So the Rangers better be real careful and have a strong conviction if they do trade him, since it could backfire horribly. Kreider could command around $4 mil this year, but if you can lock him up for two-three years as a reasonable price, even around that amount, I would expect him to return.
The remainder of the forwards, including Hayes, Staal, Lindberg, Stalberg, Moore and Glass, are in Part IV coming to a blog near you Sunday.
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