Free agency, aka the silly season, is once again upon us. In the past, the first few hours of free agency was slow, as the "team/player interviews" had reportedly just began when free agency started. Of course, we all knew that contact had to have been had before that. The past few years, including this one, there are no such pretenses, as the interview period started a few days ago, so we could see movement early.
For New York, the focus now is the same it's been since the season ended, which is trying to free up salary to create cap room now and for the future. That would be the case even if free agency wasn't starting. With the silly season now upon us and the Rangers in basically the same cap space they were since they lost in the first round, don't expect much activity, save for shopping at the dollar store, at least initially. What could happen though is that New York lays low early on, allowing the first blush of free agency to play out and then possibly trade one of the big salaried players to a team who miss out on the initial wave of players.
The Rangers enter the fray with a roster of two goaltenders (Lundqvist and Raanta), six defensemen (McD, G, Klein, Staal, Skjei and Holden) and seven forwards (Nash, Stepan, Brassard, Zucc, Fast, Lindberg and Buch with Glass in the minors, so there is about $500k in dead cap space, which is essence is added on to Buch to equal Glass' salary) under contract who account for approximately $57.250 million of the $73 million cap. If you add in the qualifiers for Kreider, $2.6 million, Hayes, $945,000; Miller, $917,000; Jensen, $874,125; McIlrath, $660,000, and Hrivik, $632,500, that adds approximately $6.6 million, leaving about $9 mil in cap space. It would be great if the big three RFAs would sign for that QO, but we all know that won't be the case.
Kreider, Hayes and Miller are all arb eligible, giving them negotiating power. Even though Kreider was up and down, he still had 21 goals and projects to still be a future second tier power forward, if not more than that. What that means is the Kreider is likely looking at about $4-4.5 mil AAV and maybe even more on a longer term deal. Hayes, despite his strong advanced metrics, has a harder case to make. He regressed from his strong rookie season, which might keep his salary down even though he earned substantial bonuses his rookie campaign. Maybe a rise to $1.25-1.5 mil, though it's possible he gets more. Miller will be the more challenging one. He bet on himself by taking just a one-year deal, which looks like it will be pay off In a big way. Miller made $874k last year and I could see him tripling that number to about $2.4 mil, though the Rangers have historically been penurious with bridge deals in the past. That likely will be the case here but Miller has a compelling case to put before an arbitration. In total, the Rangers could be looking at an additional $4.5 mil and maybe more in salaries. If that happened, that will leave maybe $4.5 mil at most in available cap space. If the big four get more than expected or are signed to more than one year deals, which to me would be the wisest course of action, the cap room could shrink well below $3 million.
If you add in those three, then NY has 10 forwards signed, excluding Jensen and Hrivik, who each have good chances to make the roster. That doesn't include the possible return of Viktor Stalberg, who made $1.1 million last year and is on NY's radar, though he made be too pricey to return. Given how well he played last year and speed he possesses, bringing back Stalberg makes a lot of sense. On defense, adding in McIlrath gives the team seven d-men and he can't be sent down to the AHL without passing through waivers. That means that if McIlrath won't make the team because NY couldn't move a defenseman coupled with the addition of Holden, then expect him to get dealt right before the season. Despite needing to improve the roster in several places, initially, as we have discussed, because of the cap crunch the team is in, it's the dollar store for the Rangers. Offer sheets have end rumored in the past, but this year it seems as if it's getting mentioned even more prominently.
As I wrote last year, those two words, “offer sheet,” used to send a chill down a GM’s backs. However, in the past, it was more a threat than a reality. Since the cap era began, there has only been eight offer sheets with only Dustin Penner not matched. In the past several years, Shea Weber and Ryan O’Reilly received offer sheets with each matched. With the current landscape of the NHL such that there are new GMs, who are not part of the old boys network and/or concerned with ruffling feathers, the specter of the offer sheet is reality not fiction. However, that said, some anonymous GMs have made scorched earth threats if a team gives an offer sheet to one of their players. That said, whispers are out that Kreider could receive an offer sheet with Miller also possibly getting one as well.
Here is the current draft pick compensation at the various salary levels if an offer sheet is given:
2016-17 Averaged Salary Draft Pick Compensation
$1,239,226 and below No compensation
$1,239,227 to $1,877,615 Third-round pick
$1,877,616 to $3,755,233 Second-round pick
$3,755,234 to $5,632,847 First- and third-round pick
$5,632,848 to $7,510,464 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-round pick
$7,510,465 to $9,388,080 Two 1sts+a 2nd & 3rd-rnd pk
$9,388,081 and above Four first-round picks
If for example Kreider received an offer for $5.6 mil or Miller for $4+ million enabling NY to a 1st and 3rd, do you match or do you take the picks? We expect Kreider to get about $4-$4.5 mil and Miller maybe around $2.5 mil. If each get a million or more than that in an offer sheet, can you take the risk of matching knowing the impact it has on the roster? If you do match, then Dan Girardi is all but gone as a buyout option. In order to do so, since the buyout period has passed, Kevin Hayes has to be offered arbitration making G eligible for the second buyout period. If you don't match, you have two-1s and two-3s, which will be great if you can offer sheet a player or exchange those picks for a stud winger, because waiting to use them next June means that this year is really lost. Could they afford not to match, due to the lack of available resources in the system and/or in free agency? This is where my criticism of former GM Glen Sather, which you have heard me mentioned over and over comes in. Sign a player long term a year early rather than a year late. If you liked Miller, then why not try and lock up him long-term for two years last year. Same with Kreider and in past, when they signed Benoit Pouliot or Stalberg or wanted to sign Anton Stralman. Are you willing to have the same issue with Fast or Lindberg going into next season?
Free agency this year has some intriguing names and as usual, many that will be grossly overpaid. It’s not a great class, especially with Steven Stamkos, the expected prize jewel, opting to stay in Tampa. The top tier is likely made up of Milan Lucic, David Backes, Andrew Ladd, Kyle Okposo, Loui Eriksson, maybe Frans Nielsen and Kris Russell with several rumored to sign shortly after 12pm. The second tier has some intriguing names though not without flaws in Jamie McGinn, Thomas Vanek, Jiri Hudler, David Perron, Radim Vrbata, Mikkel Boedker, Troy Brouwer, Michael Grabner, PA Parenteau, Joe Colborne, Matt Martin, Darren Helm, Brandon Pirri, Jason Chimera, Michael Latta, Dale Weise, Erik Gryba, Brian Campbell, Jason Demers and James Wisniewski.
Not yet a free agent is Jimmy Vesey, who until August is Buffalo's property after his rights were dealt by Nashville. But he is rumored to want to pick his own team and is good friend with Kevin Hayes, which is why NY may try and keep cap space available just in case he wants to come to the Rangers. One other option might be Alexander Radulov, who has not yet re-signed with the KHL, as was rumored. He also was reportedly in talks with the Red Wings on a one-year deal around $3 mi but those terms are likely higher than the Rangers' budget. While NY is rumored to have interest in Backes and the upper tier wingers would fill holes in the top-six, the limited cap space means move along. Maybe one or two names from the second tier might fit, a few of which I touch on below. But because it is the silly season, expect several to be overpaid both in years and dollars.
From the list, the players who NY could and should target besides Stalberg, as noted above, are McGinn, Vanek, Grabner, Martin, Helm, Colborne, Pirri, Chimera, Weise and maybe Wiz or Gryba for depth on D. Adding one or maybe two of the forwards would help the bottom six, and in case of McGinn, Vanek or Pirri, maybe the top-six. McGinn and Pirri were who I wanted the Rangers to grab at the deadline last year. McGinn had 25 goals while Pirri somehow wore out his welcome and two spots and wasn't offered arb by Anaheim at just over $1 million, which has to make you believe something may not be right with him in either the clubhouse or on the ice. Helm would be a perfect third or fourth liner, the same can be said for Martin, though each may be outside the Rangers price range of the rumored level of interest in the league is true. Vanek, who just was bought out by Minnesota, has his flaws, as his subpar effort level at times and failure to back check are well known. But he is a goal scorer, whose right-handed shot is desperately up front on the PP. Colborne is a big center who has shown flashes of breaking out but been unable to put it all together. Chimera still has good speed and would fit in on the fourth line nicely, though he may be signed, sealed and delivered to Florida. Grabner also would be a good fit and he or Chimera might fill the PK hole left from Dominic Moore's departure. Weise also could fill a similar role. Below are some of their advanced stats charts. What they show is that each were and likely will be productive, some more than others, while that level of perceived future productivity will likely spike Helm's and Martin's price tag.
Jamie McGinn and Thomas Vanek:
Hero Chart:
Darren Helm and Michael Grabner:
Hero Chart:
Brandon Pirri and Joe Colborne:
Hero Chart:
Matt Martin and Jason Chimera:
Hero Chart:
Viktor Stalberg and Dale Weise:
Hero Chart:
More important than any signing is figuring out the direction of the team. Is it to be a speed team, one that physical, both? Before last year, there was a relatively clear direction. Under Torts, it was lunch pail hockey. Initially under AV, it was transitioning to speed. Last year, who knows what it was and the same looks like it will be able to said about this year, since the personnel doesn't seem to fit either style of play. Based upon who can be afforded in free agent, that identity is unlikely to get any clearer. Since based on the cap room and who might be a fit that I laid out above, GM Jeff Gorton's best and only call may be to lay low initially and try and sign someone after the first few days on the cheap. The other possibility, as I noted above, is a trade, though Gorton hasn't had much luck in that regard so far, possibly requiring a drop in expectations of what can be received in return.
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