We will resume our mock draft later today, as I have the Philly pick in hand and expect the LA one shortly. But Larry Brooks' dropped a whole lot of speculation in his column today. I will provide my views below each section. There is likely lots of truth but potentially some fiction as well.
Chances are that if the Rangers make a substantial move leading into Friday’s first round of the entry draft in Dallas, it will involve Kevin Hayes. Multiple sources report the 26-year-old impending Group II free-agent center has attracted significant interest from around the league as general manager Jeff Gorton sifts through various scenarios both connected to and independent of improving the club’s ninth-overall position.
The Blueshirts have talked with Carolina about moving up to second overall, where the team would jump all over right wing Andrei Svechnikov, but though the dynamic could change through the week, such a deal seems extremely unlikely.
And while the cost of doing business could change on the draft floor, the price of moving up 3-8 spots appears prohibitive for the Blueshirts, who may be able to get their man — perhaps winger Oliver Wahlstrom, committed to BC; perhaps righty defenseman Evan Bouchard of OHL London — right where they are.
As Brooks notes in the next paragraph, with four RFAs, New York is active in trying to move at least one. Hayes would bring back the biggest return if moved, even though he will net the biggest contract, both in terms of years and dollars. The Carolina rumor started right after the lottery and then was shot down by the 'Canes new management. Maybe they still will move the pick, but all signs point to Carolina holding the pick and taking Svechnikov. Unless New York gets that pick, there is no way I would move Hayes for a draft selection, unless it's packaged with an additional asset or two back in return. With what we have seen in the mock drafts, staying put or surrendering a small asset to move up from nine looks to be a better course of action.
But Gorton, whose team also holds the 26th and 28th selections, is expected to make a move or two this week. In addition to Hayes, Jimmy Vesey, Ryan Spooner and Vladislav Namestnikov are also impending restricted free agents. All have been qualified, Slap Shots has learned, but the chances of them all being on the ice for David Quinn’s first training camp range from none to none.
The key takeaway here is that all four have qualified. Not that this is surprising at all. But that also means if the team and a player does end up in arbitration and one of the rewards is above the minimum in which to walk away, New York could do, as unlikely as that might be.
At this point, too, the Blueshirts have a glut in the middle, with eight potential centers — Mika Zibanejad, Hayes, Filip Chytil, Lias Andersson, Namestnikov, Spooner, Boo Nieves and Brett Howden — vying for spots. No, it’s not as if Quinn will have to decide how to apportion ice time among Steve Yzerman, Sergei Fedorov and Keith Primeau as Scotty Bowman did a couple of decades ago, but still, center is one area in which the Rangers have at least a promise of depth.
Remember way back to last year when depth at center was an issue. Based on the above, depth exists. But as Brooks notes, the quality of that depth is still in question, largely because the majority is unproven. That view extends even to the upper part of the depth due either to injury (Zib) or slumps (Hayes).
Teams have been nibbling at Spooner, arbitration-eligible and one year away from unrestricted free agency, but it is Hayes, in the very same contractual spot, who has the most value on the market. Coming off a year in which he scored a career-high 25 goals while embracing his role as a matchup center, Hayes will likely command a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $4.75 million per.
The Rangers have the space, but that is second-line money for a player the team projects as its third-line center, for if Chytil makes the team out of camp — and if he doesn’t, it will be a disappointment — he will get a top-six opportunity. A depth chart of Zibanejad, Chtyil and Hayes leaves the fourth line for Andersson, and is that really what the Rangers want to do with last year’s seventh-overall pick if he is ready this time? Then there is Howden, generally projected as a third-liner. Again, a glut.
The Rangers don’t seem keen on including Hayes in a deal to move up a few spots in the first round. The inference is that if he’s moved, it would be as the centerpiece as a deal to add a righty defenseman. Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba seems out of reach, but the Flames could be make for an interesting match. There seems to be little interest in dealing for Dougie Hamilton, but, and we have made this point before, the Blueshirts might be able to get Adam Fox, the Harvard defenseman who paired with lefty prospect Ryan Lindgren for Team USA at the past two World Junior tournaments.
When Spooner was acquired, you all know that I thought he, Hayes and J.T. Miller would make a fine trio. While their styles were similar, I felt that each complemented once another. That line lasted for one game, against Detroit, before Miller was sent to Tampa. I still would like Spooner to be one that remains. I have seen some say he is too soft and doesn't go to the net, preferring to play on the periphery. But thats not the player I saw in New York. Plus, he can swing between center and wing.
Counting on Chytil as a second-line center may be a bit of a stretch. Hoping he can fill the role, yes, inking him in and counting on it, no. We saw signs last year, both in the NHL and AHL, but not at the level where it's a lock he can slide into that role. Plus, that means Andersson is the third-line center, which also might be feasible and his best spot initially, but not a given. In addition, I still think Chytil can move to wing, which is where he played large stretches of time in the past.
Hayes for five years in the neighborhood of $4.75 million per is likely underestimating where he will land. I still think it will be in the $5.25-$5.35 mil range per season. Hayes showed last year he could be a shut down center. Then switched back to a scoring mode. If he can put both parts of the game together, which to me is a strong possibility of occurring, he becomes the perfect second or even third line center. In addition, I think he thrives in Quinn's system, in which he should have a ton of responsibility heaped on him.
Now if he could bring back Trouba, then I get moving him. But not for Hamilton. I view Hamilton as a step down, and regardless of what his advanced metrics show, I don't think of him as a shutdown blueliner. Plus he is making $5.75 mil per and will be a UFA in three years. If going for the defenseman, get the one who can be locked up longer term at maybe the same rate. Plus, he has now "worn out his welcome" in two places, which to me raises some red flags as well. Brooks loves Fox, who reportedly has said he doesn't want to play in Canada, but that has not yet been proven to be 100% true.
Neither Vesey nor Namestnikov carry enough heft on the market to merit a substantial return on his own, but it is possible that one or the other — I would prefer that Vesey gets a shot playing for Quinn — could go as part of a package including one of the late first-round picks in draft floor maneuvering.
I want to see Vesey in this system and the bridge he should get is cheap enough to warrant keeping him. Nam, well you know my view on him. That view may be shared by much of the league, as he is likely thought of as a player who excelled because of Stamkos and Kucherov and is a product of skating with those two.
The Rangers have no interest in putting a skeleton squad on the ice in October. Unless there is a dramatic shift this week, Mats Zuccarello is therefore expected to report for duty at training camp heading into the final year of his contract.
If true, for now, this ends the rumors that Zucc will go before the draft. Of course, an offer still could come in that warrants moving him. As you know, I am a huge Zucc fan and understand the rationale for dealing him if starting fully a new. But if the rebuild isn’t a long term one, then having at least start the season and possibly be a trade deadline transaction, makes sense. Plus, this also could signal that he might end up as the team’s captain.
Gorton is believed to have talked with Edmonton, and might be willing to accept Milan Lucic and his five-year, $30 million contract commitment if Leon Draisaitl comes the other way. There is, however, zero evidence the Oilers have the slightest inclination to make a deal like that, even if it would involve, say Brady Skjei, also an impending Group II free agent.
I want nonpart of Lucic, even at a discount, unless it’s a major one. Dealing Hayes possibly and Skjei to get Draisaitl would certainly improve the center position while weakening the team’s defense. Draisaitl could play center or wing and at $8.5 mil, the AAV for a possible true #1 pivotman, if you think of it that way, is reasonable.
Skjei no question struggled last season. But I think he could thrive under Quinn. As I have said before, defenseman growth is not linear. In addition, if he is dealt, who is a possible top pair blueliner on this team or in the system, at least in the short term? You have to give to get and even if Hayes and Skjei and possibly a pick would bring Draisaitl, are you making that move? Draisaitl could move to wing if need be and I think he is just scratching the surface of how good he could become. So it’s likely a move I would reluctantly make and that should team you what I think of Skjei and Hayes.
Brendan Smith, meanwhile, has remained in New York following the season in order to work on his fitness with Ben Prentiss. The Rangers expect him to not only be in the mix for a job, but to be the player to whom they awarded that four-year, $17.4 million deal last June.
I would say a good portion of the fan base wants Smith bought out or buried. Quinn coming in gives Smith a new lease on life. If he comes to camp in the kind of shape he was in last season, then he has no one to blame but himself. But if he is truly rededicated and wants to eradicate the bad taste of last year and could play as he did in the stretch run and playoffs in 2017, then you might have Skjei’s pair mate.
Ilya Kovalchuk has not eliminated the Rangers from his list, but we’re told that the dynamic free agent winger would only come to Broadway if the Blueshirts acquire a player or two who would vault the club into contending status. In other words, probably not.
What Brooks wrote is what’s been reported for a while. If you want Kovy, he has to believe you will contend. Based on what we know and the other teams pursuing Ilya, he is a long shot to come to the Rangers.
Quinn, who has already met with a number of players, is expected to travel to Sweden early next month in order to chat with Henrik Lundqvist, and perhaps Zibanejad and Jesper Fast. Though Lindy Ruff is going to remain part of the coaching staff in a position yet to be determined, the Blueshirts appear to be waiting on assistants whose contracts with other organizations expire on June 30 before filling their staff.
We wonder if Boston’s Joe Sacco, who was head man in Colorado while Quinn was his assistant in 2012-13, might be a target.
Ruff as an eye in the sky and coach who can help out the D using Quinn’s system works for me. I don’t place the blame of last year’s debacle on him. My rationale is three defensive coaches in three years and the blue liners all struggled in that period, so it’s not on the assistant coaches but on the system. New system, new philosophy and hopefully improved play. Sacco has been rumored to be a target and you wonder who else might be in play whose deals expire June 30. In addition, does this make Scott Stevens even less likely since others remain in the mix.
The Rangers do have cap space to take on another team’s problem contract but have no intention of becoming a depository for faded veterans. But if the Penguins were to often a sweetener along with Carl Hagelin, with one year at $4 million on his deal, then maybe.
Hagelin was eventually replaced by Grabner. If Hags could fill that role again with Pittsburgh eating part of the contract and sending along a pick, for one year, that means sense. But the asset would have to warrant it and we would have to see what the Penguins would utilize the cap room on, since that would have be part of what’s used to evaluate the deal.
And if Tampa Bay has the need to move Ryan Callahan, who has two years at $5.8 million per remaining on his deal, the Rangers could be in. That, by the way, is assuming Callahan — who probably will miss the first month or so of the season recovering from shoulder surgery — does not have the Blueshirts on his no-trade list.
This is just me, but if the Blueshirts could get Callahan (with a suitable inducement), I’d sew that “C” back on his sweater the moment the hypothetical deal were completed.
Larry, we love you, but you crazy. Tampa Bay would have to eat a large portion of the contract for this to even feasibly work. Factor in the manner in which Cally left and why he departed and why would you want to go back to the well again. He would bring leadership for sure, but his repeated injury history makes expecting much from him doubtful. Plus, why would Quinn and the organization who wants a new start think it wise to go back to the past, especially in a situation that didn’t end well.
New York Rangers Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»