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Karlsson, Karlsson and more Karlsson, plus RFA news |
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Once again the specter of Erik Karlsson dominated Rangers land Thursday. In this case, as it was Wednesday and several data prior, it wasn’t that the Rangers were in discussions to acquire EK65 but rather to facilitate another team - likely the Lightning - obtaining the 28-year Swedish blueliner. A minor but still important point was the as expected filing for arbitration by the Rangers’ four eligible restricted free agents.
First on Karlsson. The speculation on who New York might take back was whizzing back and forth across the World Wide Web and blogosphere and twitter universe all day yesterday. Would it be Ryan Callahan and his two years left at $5.8 million? Maybe Bobby Ryan and the four years at $7.25 million remaining in his contract? Could the Rangers receive Yanni Gourde (though his 16.4% shooting percentage has name concerned that he could be Cory Conacher 2.0) what about Anthony Cirelli or Taylor Raddysh, maybe it’s Alex Killlorn or Ondrej Palat? What type of picks might be involved? Was there as feasibility of New York taking on board both Callahan’s and Ryan’s contract? Then. The really wacky one had the Blueshirts obtaining Nikita Kucherov.
We have discussed that New York should use the abundance of cap space by taking on bad assets in short-term deals and obtain future assets. Callahan would certainly fit that description, as he could be bought out after the season, or if his injury history lingers, New York could eventually place his on LTIR. A few caveats associated with any deal.
First, New York has to truly identify their window for contention. Does it start next season and take a major step forward in 2020-21? Are they in this rebuild mode for two years, then start the rise up in 2020-21 and contention in 2021-22? The answer to these questions will drive how the Rangers approach any of these deals. This is especially true if the Rangers Wang to be players in the Artemi Panarin sweepstakes, as expected, next season. So keeping an eye on dead cap space and future availability alongside the window for contending are keys.
Second, and related to my first comment, facilitating a deal for Tampa will potentially help create a super team. Once you have identified when the turnaround is supposed to begin in earnest, then New York has to look at the team to the south and in Toronto and figure what’s the impact of helping a team such as this on our ability to contend in the future, sort of like what’s happened in Golden State in the NBA with other teams having to decide to a certain extent their moves around the behemoth in Northern California. I have no issue helping Tampa in the short term but New York has to receive enough to warrant facilitating the Lightning improving while also considering the future impact.
Late Thursday, David Pagnotta reported that New York might not necessarily be the third team. Others noted this as well. Pagnottta mentioned the Devils, who also have $23 million in cap room but unlike the Blueshirts, don’t have any pending RFA who will receive a healthy amount of allowing New Jersey to be aggressive in participating in this type of deal. Ray Shero has shown a willingness to be bold, so don’t be shocked if it’s the Devils and not Rangers as the third team in.
Before the 5pm deadline Thursday, all four Rangers eligible for player elected arbitration filed as expected. Kevin Hayes, Ryan Spooner, Jimmy Vesey and Brady Skjei filed. One important fact to keep in mind is is that just because each player filed, New York is not precluded or prevented from trading any of the four.
In that regard, the names prominently mentioned as possible trade bait have been Hayes and Spooner. My view on dealing either has been well-known since the season ended. If choosing one to deal and GM Jeff Gorton felt that one certainly had to go, I would trade Spooner. But as I have said, I disagree with the notion that he is soft and a perimeter player. Personally, I think he and Hayes could play nicely off each other possible with Vladislav Namestnikov on the off wing. Spooner should end up AAV wise slightly below Boone Jenner’s $3.75 million per year on a short term deal. He made $2.825 million last season and New York offered him arbitration, so a 10% raise is expected. My take is that if NY keeps him, it will be a 1 or 2-year deal in the $3.5-3.75 mil range.
Hayes is the more challenging one. I have discussed my thoughts on him so often, I am reluctant about appearing to be a broken record. Suffice it to say I understand why he has been brought up as a trade target and personally think he has another level or two he could reach, which is why I don’t want him dealt.
Vesey is coming off his ELC. Under new coach David Quinn, my hope is that his deployment and still of play using his physicality will be on display more often. Signing him to a two-year deal in about the $1.75 million range seems fair to me. That gives him a healthy enough raise while also doesn’t hamper New York from pursuing other deals down the road or including Vesey in trade talks.
Skjei is the challenging one. Is he the player that showed so much as a rookie or the one who took a major step back last year. As you have read from me, defensemen growth is not linear. Just because he struggled last season, that’s not an indication that his performance as a rookie was an aberration. Skjei struggles at both ends of the ice but I still believe his upside is tremendous. New York should still lock up Skjei long-term. I would prefer a six-year deal in the $4.5-5 mil range if the Rangers truly believe in him. If there are questions, then go with a four-year and not a bridge deal for the American born blueliner.
In the past, the Rangers have managed to get a new deal done before reaching the hearing. This year, hearings are scheduled to take place between July 20-August 4 with the schedule for each announced shortly prior to the kickoff of the entire arbitration hearing process. The most recent time any Blueshirts went through an arb hearing were Sean Avery and Nikolay Zherdev in 2007, and in Zherdev’s case, New York walked away from the arbitrator’s ruling. In addition, for each of the four that filed, an offer sheet - as rare as one has been - is no longer on the table and the players are considered as signed.
As I have written several times and notes above, per capfriendly.com, the Rangers have $23,725,556 in cap space with 16 (projected) roster players signed (including Vladislav Namestnikov and Fredrik Claessen) and including Dan Girardi’s $3.61 buyout cap hit. The possible salaries for Hayes, Spooner and Vesey should total at most on the $13-14 mil range, leaving $10 mil of cap room. A figure such as that is more than workable and also allows for re-signing Skjei long-term if desired, rather than on a bridge deal, along with smaller deals to retain John Gilmour and Rob O’Gara while retaining the ability to take on a bad contract or two for future assets. In addition, if New York believes that Pavel Buchnevich is prime to take a major step forward, locking him up to a team-friendly moderate to long term deal could be an option, though I highly doubt the organization pursues that path.
The NY Post noted in their column today that three Rangers RFA’s with arbitration rights — Gilmour, O’Gara and Boo Nieves — did not file, though I believe that they were not eligible to file. New York gave each one a qualifying offer, meaning if they turn them down, the Rangers still retain their negotiating rights. New York can also file for arbitration against them by Friday at 5 p.m., though little reason exists to go that route. None of the three have any true leverage, though I believe a team might consider offer sheeting Gilmour or Nieves, if New York fails to offer arbitration. But if that happened, based on the probable salary offered to either, the Rangers are likely to match, making the whole exercise somewhat pointless.
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