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Hockey Buzz presents: "You predict the Mika Zibanejad contract" |
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We are basically in the dog days of summer, even though August is not yet here. Yes, we will discuss the offense and also if the team is better now than the one that ended last year. In addition, the discussion of trading for a center will dominate the remainder of the off-season and into the year if one is not acquired or signed. For now, the conversation centers (no pun intended) over how many years and dollars Mika Zibanejad will sign for and if that will occur via arbitration (unlikely) or through agreement with the team.
I covered my view of what the Rangers should sign Zib for in a prior blog (see below). In this blog, I posted two pools. First, New York and Zibanejad are to exchange arb figures in the next day or so with the hearing set for July 25. Zib could go one of two directions: the first is asking for one year and hope to cash in long-term next year. The second, and to me more likely, ask will be for two years, allowing Zib to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of those two years. New York will want to sign him for one year, allowing the team to try and sign him long-term as a restricted free agent.
Good arbitration info from Cap Friendly: https://www.capfriendly.com/arbitration
This is a key one:
The party (Player or Club) who did not elect for Arbitration decides on the awarded term (meaning years) [CBA 12.10(a)&(b)]
Since Mike Zibanejad is the one who elected arbitration, the Rangers get to decide on the number of years, so look for them to elect for one year, if it reaches an arbitrator's decision.
The first poll is to vote on the $ figure New York will present for a one-year deal. The second poll is to vote on for how much and long the Rangers should sign Zibanejad.
In this poll, weigh in with what you think the Rangers will offer to Zibanejad for one-year, keeping in mind that the minimum offer is $3.25 million
In this poll, vote as to how many years and $ the Rangers should give Zib if they sign him long-term to buy out some of his UFA years:
This is the prior blog I wrote on July 12:
For the most part, the heavy lifting of the Rangers' off-season is complete. That doesn't mean that there still isn't work to be done. In no particular order, New York still needs to re-sign Mika Zibanejad, determine their third and fourth line center, which might mean a trade, figure out the offensive line combinations (several of these to be covered in another blog) and their defensive pairings. In this blog, I will cover what options the Rangers have with Zib and how much he could expect to receive in an offer. Also, beyond the blog on the offense that will be forthcoming, any suggestions for the dog days of summer? I could do a player by player report card if that interests you,
The hearings are scheduled from July 20 through August 4 with all rulings handed down by August 6. The team and the players can still negotiate up until and through the hearing. Mika Zibanejad's arb hearing date is July 25, presuming it gets to stage. The Rangers have not had a player go through an arbitration hearing since Nikolay Zherdev in 2009, when the Rangers walked away from his $3.9 million judgement, making him an unrestricted free agent. Once Zib is signed, the second buyout window expires 48 hours after that the signing, at which point, we will have a good idea if Marc Staal opens 2017-18 with the Blueshirts (hint, expect that to be the case).
This will be Zibanejad's third contract. His first was a three-year entry-level deal that slid it's first year in 2011-12, so it ran from 2012-13 through 14-15. His second contract was a two-year bridge deal for 2015-16 and 16-17 that had a cap hit of $2.625 mil but paid him $2.25 mil the first year and $3.25 mil the second year. That latter amount of $3.25 mil is what Zib was qualified at, meaning that's the lowest his salary this year will be.
New York could go in two different ways on a deal with Zibanejad. First, they could offer him a short-term, one or two year bridge deal. By going one-year, New York would still retain his rights as an RFA for 2018-19 while a two-year deal would enable Zib to be a UFA right after the 2018-19 season. If New York really wanted to see what Zib could do as a true #1 center, now that Derek Stepan is gone and no one else is threatening for that role, the one-year option might make sense. But, if Zib has the kind of year many expect he can and will, then the Rangers will pay for it on the back-end in terms of the cap hit for the future contract and/or you risk that Zib will only take another one-year deal and bolt at the end of that season. That's also why a two-year deal makes no sense for New York and trying to buying out some of Zibanejad's unrestricted years makes the most sense. The question are how many years and at what $ figure.
Below is what can and cannot be used in an arb hearing, the two bolded items, one each in both sides of the ledger are interesting to note.
The evidence that can be used in arbitration cases:
- The player's "overall performance" including statistics in all previous seasons.
- Injuries, illnesses and the number of games played.
- The player's length of service with the team and in the NHL.
- The player's "overall contribution" to the team's success or failure.
- The player's "special qualities of leadership or public appeal."
- The performance and salary of any player alleged to be "comparable" to the player in the dispute.
Evidence that is not admissible:
- The salary and performance of a "comparable" player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent.
- Testimonials, video and media reports.
- The financial state of the team.
- The salary cap and the state of the team's payroll
Larry Brooks speculated that Zibanejad will be re-signed at an average annual value of between $4.5 and $5.5 million depending on the length of contract the Rangers offer him. Utilizing examples in line with the first bullet above seem to align with that dollar figure. Due to the nature of who was available in free agency this year, no one likely fits the bill on the second bullet, as to me, players such as Martin Hanzal or Nick Bonino are not truly comparable given the age and years of experience compared to Zibanejad.
Focus on the first bullet are two players that re-signed with their respective teams recently One of the players we discussed recently, as he was a possible NY trade target, while the second just re-signed. In addition, there are a handful of others that re-signed with their teams the past few seasons that also could be viewed as "comparable." Blending all those players together results in a dollar figure aligned with what Brooks wrote and hopefully in the 4-5 year range.
Alex Galchenyuk signed a three-year deal for a $4.9 AAV. This deal has no NTC/NMC, though he would only have been eligible to for that NTC/NMC in the final year based his age, etc., so the lack of one isn't surprising. The contract makes Galchenyuk tradable, as he he has been rumored to be on the block. While I know you aren't a big fan of some of the advanced metrics, looking at Zibanejad and Galchenyuk shows two fairly similar players. Consistency has been an issue with both, but more so with Galchenyuk, though he has a bit more offensive upside than Zibanejad, who is slightly more defensively responsive than the Montreal winger/center.
Zib vs. Galchenyuk
The Galchenyuk move comes shortly after Montreal traded for and then signed Jonathan Drouin to a six-year, $33 million deal. Drouin is likely to move to center, especially if Galchenyuk stays at wing. Offensively, I view him as much more explosive that Zib but someone who has been more inconsistent than Zib, given his history. Montreal decided to go long-term rather than short-term by inking Drouin to six years rather than one more bridge deal and then going long-term. If Drouin explodes, then the contract will be a wise one, if not, then they have the downside risk, especially with a modified NTC the last two years of the deal.
Zib vs. Drouin
Tampa Bay locked up Tyler Johnson for seven years with a $5 million AAV. Johnson, who went undrafted, has a brilliant 2014 campaign, in which he tallied 29 goals and 43 assists after totally 50 points the prior year in his first full season in the NHL. He slumped to 38 and 35 points, respectively, the last two seasons, each of which saw him miss at least 13 contests. Johnson will be the team's #2 center behind
Johnson, who's appeared in 308 games for Tampa Bay across the past five years, racked up 19 goals and 45 points in 66 games last season while serving as the team's primary faceoff specialist. Although his numbers have been down since his stellar 2014 campaign, part of the blame goes to injury, considering Johnson has missed 29 games over the past two years. Tampa may have gotten a discount due to Johnson's injury history, which may have prevented him from matching his 2014 campaign, though his performance in each of the last two years failed to resemble that magical season. Like Drouin, Johnson could outperform that deal, especially if he raises his level to how he played in 2014, or if the last two seasons are closer to what he is, than Johnson is the beneficiary of the long-term deal.
Zib vs. Johnson
Blueshirt Banter did a nice job of comparing Zibanejad to three other players, whose careers to the point they signed long-term deals somewhat resemble Zib and whose contracts received might be a guide as to what Zib can expect. First was Nazem Kadri, who agreed to a six-year, $27 million extension with an AAV of $4.5 million on April 13, 2016. Second, Vincent Trocheck, who inked a six-year pact worth $28.5 million with an AAV of $4.75 million on July 2, 2016. Last, Brayden Schenn, who signed a deal worth $20.4 million over four years with an AAV of $5.125 million on July 25, 2016, Each players performance and games played are not an exact match, but are close enough and provide a gauge, similar to Derick Brassard, who the Rangers signed to a five-year, $25 million deal taking him through age 30 and at the time that represented 7.25% of the salary cap.
New York should try and lock up Zib for five years at around $5.5 million per season. That would take Zibanejad to 29 years old, enabling to be a free agent again relatively in his prime. Zib gets the salary certainty and protects any downside risk, while New York gets a manageable cap hit and the potential for upside performance. in addition, the cap % will be around the 7.50% range, which is reasonable and saves some cash for the next batch of free agents, consisting of J.T. Miller, Jimmy Hayes, Jimmy Vesey, and Brady Skjei.
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