Today is series #2, consisting of defense and goalies, in what will be three prediction blogs. Yesterday, I posted my forwards breakdown. Thursday will be special teams, unsung heroes and the edges in the series along with my overall prediction.

Here is the second video summarizing the first round win over Montreal to raise the anticipation level a bit more and help get you ready for the Eastern Conference Semifinals..

"Alive" l 2017 New York Rangers First Round (HD)

metranger711



Rangers:

27 Ryan McDonagh - 5 Dan Girardi
76 Brady Skjei - 42 Brendan Smith
18 Marc Staal - 22 Nick Holden

Extras: 8 Kevin Klein (played in game 3 against Montreal in place of Holden, but sat the other five games of the series. Could dress in place of Staal or Holden if the need arises), 6 Adam Clendening (will be inserted if a puck-moving d-man is needed and 43 Steven Kampfer (depth for the blueline).

(McDonagh = McMonster. The Rangers Captain may have had only two points against Montreal but he controlled the action from the blueline, playing 26:24 nightly. In addition, and likely more important, he played with a snarl that we haven’t seen from him that often. McDonagh took that next step forward in the series while matched up against the Canadiens’ top line. His pair mate, Girardi, had a rough season and was considered a major question mark heading into the playoffs. But he turned back the clock with his performance. I know most of you don’t like advanced stats, but this from Larry Brooks o Tuesday nighlights just how good G was last series: “And after an opening two games in which the Rangers were pinned in their own end an inordinate amount of time — with Girardi a 33.3 percent Corsi player — the alternate captain recorded a 52.2 percent Corsi the remainder of the series, and 54.9 percent in victories in Games 5 and 6.” Add in thunderous hits on Max Pacioretty in Game 1, the hardest he’s ever been hit per the Montreal captain, and Brendan Gallagher at the end of the second period in Game 6 and it truly was a turn back the clock performance.

Staal and Holden make up the second pair, but for this series, and really the last one, they should be the third grouping. After a rough end of the year and start to the playoffs, I thought Staal’s play improved to the point where I didn’t close my eyes each time he was out there. Holden brings some offensive, but that aspect of his game dried up the second half of the season, when his defensive liabilities came to the forefront. The lasting images from the last round are both d-men on the ice for Tomas Plekanec’s game-tying goal with 17 seconds left in Game 2, the snow angel each made, forcing Henrik Lundqvist to make a brilliant save on Andrew Shaw in Game 5 and both of them on the ice again and Holden unable to box out Plekeanc, forcing Lundqvist to make a pad save to seal the Rangers’ win late in Game 6. Staal and Holden go down to the ice too easily and each has had issues skating the puck out of trouble and their own zone. Look for Boucher to try and exploit this pair, especially at home when Ottawa has the last change. Hopefully AV makes them the third pairing, and while Klein, who really regressed this year but played in Game 3 against Montreal, is ready, I would prefer Clendening, who is strong in puck possession and zone exists but whose d-zone issues likely mean he will start the playoffs on the bench, or Kampfer, who acquitted himself very well when in the lineup earning a two-year contract extension, to Holden, but that is unlikely to happen.

Skjei, who rapidly became New York’s second best offensive d-man, finishing with 34 assists, the majority coming at even strength, Brendan Smith, a trade deadline acquisition from Detroit, comprise the last pairing. Skjei had the tying goal in Game 5 and was so good in that game, as Brooks pointed out, coach Alain Vigneault rode him with four shifts over the final 10 minutes of regulation and six in OT. But on Saturday, when the rookie was fighting it, Skjei rode the bench for the final 10:53 and played just under 13 minutes in the game. As good as Skjei is, we forget sometimes he is still a rookie but I expect a huge series from him. Smith was a beast the last round. Physical, nasty and gritty; all the aspects the blue line has lacked. He has learned well from associate coach Jeff Beukeboom and raised his game in the playoffs. If he can repeat that performance in this round, New York should be in good shape on the blueline.

During the year, defensive issues in New York weren't limited to just the blue line. Own zone and physical breakdowns coupled with their lack of speed and inability to cover the front of the net made that group a shell of their former self. In McDonagh and Skjei, the Rangers have two mobile, puck-moving d-men. The rebound from Girardi and play of Smith were huge components to the round one win. Similar efforts here will go a long way to helping the Rangers advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Goaltending
30 Henrik Lundqvist
32 Antti Raanta

(Lundqvist notched the 400th win of his career but had a very uneven year. A hot start was followed by a major lull in the middle. A hip injury sidelined him eight games in March, but after returning, he allowed 21 goals in six games. In addition, he went 3-5-2 in his last 10 games and 5-7-3 his last 15 to finish 31-20-4 with a 2.74 GAA and .910 SV%, the latter two numbers the worst of Hank's career.

Coming into the prior round, I wrote: “If he doesn't come close to or match Carey Price's performance and numbers, it could be a short series.” Challenge met, a 1.70 GAA and .947 SV% is all the evidence needed to show that was the case. Each time a defensive breakdown occurred, Lundqvist was there to clean up the mess. The save on Shea Weber on the PP in Game 1, his overall play in the loss in Game 2, the save on Shaw and breakaway one on Pacioretty in Game 5, the robbery by his glove save on Weber and pad save on Plekanec in Game 6. Lundqvist looks to be at the top of his game and will need to remain there to outduel Anderson in this round. All the calls that he was washed up and past his prime seem to have ended rapidly.

Raanta was phenomenal his second season in New York. Working with goaltending coach Benoit Allaire, Raanta went 16-8-2 with four shutouts, a 2.26 GAA and .922 SV% in 30 games. Lundqvist would need to get injured for a goaltending swap to occur, but Raanta waits in the wings if needed).

Senators

Defense
3 Marc Methot - 65 Erik Karlsson
2 Dion Phaneuf- 5 Cody Ceci
6 Chris Wideman - 57 Ben Harpur

Healthy Scratches - 33 Frederik Claesson (was in for Wideman in Game 6 playing with Harpur and played opposite Karlsson late in the season. Could replace Wideman) and Jyrki Jokipakka

Injured: 74 Mark Borowiecki (lower body injury, missed Games 3-6, may be ready for Game 1 but a likely scratch)

(Defensively, it all begins with Karlsson, who sat out the last three games with a foot injury, but returned for the post-season. He tallied 71 points in 77 games while blocking 201 shots, an astonishing number for an elite offensive blueliner. In the first round, Karlsson had six assists in the six games, triggering the Ottawa attack despite playing with with two hairline fractures in his heel, the result of blocking a shot against the Flyers on March 28. Marc Methot, sidelined late with a hand injury, returned for the post-season as well, starting in Game 2, lining up as usual across from Karlsson. After dishing out 164 hits during the year, Methot added 25 in the five games he played while also blocking six shots.

Phaneuf, who every Rangers fan dislikes for ending Michael Sauer's career, is still a physical presence on the blue line but has lost a lot of whatever speed he had while Ceci didn’t take the expected step forward offensively but saw four more minutes of ice time nightly and more than willing to take the body and dish out hits. Phaneuf had the game-winning goal in overtime in Game 2 against Boston along with a pair of assists. His lack of foot speed may be an issue for Phaneuf in this series but he makes up for it in his physical play. Ceci took a step forward against Boston, blocking 23 shots in the series win.

Coach Guy Boucher leaned heavily on the top-two pairings against Boston because the Bruins didn't have the type of four-line rotation the Rangers have. Boston had Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak and David Krejci, so maybe more top-end talent, but not the balance through the lineup New York now has. Coach Alain Vigneault and the team will need to take advantage of their speed and also their depth to exploit matchups, especially the third pairing.

Borowiecki is a hitting machine, with almost 350 hits, and is maybe ready to return to action. Harpur is more of an offensive threat that filled in nicely in the final four games in the series. Claesson played Games 1 and 6 but was sat in the other four games while Chris Wideman was in the lineup the first five games before sitting out the series clincher due to his struggles in Games 4 and 5. Look for Boucher to mix-and-match depending on the desired match up and if home or away, dependent on lineup setting.

Ottawa is built to rely more on strategy and defensive structure, using their 1-3-1 “neutral zone trap” to slow down the Rangers, rather than brute force. The Senators were credited with 225 hits in their six-game series against the Bruins, compared to the Rangers’ 285 against the Canadiens. Ottawa will play their 1-3-1 system, which will require New York to be patient and take advantage of any opportunities arising from when there is a crack in the armor. Look for NY to do what they did in Games 4-6 and were likely practicing on Tuesday with the Black Aces: Soft dump ins not allowing Craig Anderson to play the puck, forcing EK65 to get hit every time he touches the puck. In addition, quick passes through the neutral zone as well as the occasional home run pass off the boards to someone like Kreider for breakaways or deflections into the offensive zone will also be in the game plan).

Goaltenders
41 Craig Anderson
1 Mike Condon

(Ottawa has several story lines, as I have indicated in yesterday’s and today’s blog. MacArthur and Karlsson are two of them but the biggest is Anderson, who missed large stretches of the season caring for his wife Nicholle, who was diagnosed with cancer. Anderson played just 40 games, missing two months, due to his wife’s cancer, but won 25 games with a 2.28 GAA and .926 SV%, the latter two numbers marked improvement over the prior season.

Anderson held Boston to two goals or fewer in three of the six games, including a shutout in Game 4. Overall, he posted a 1.80 goals-against average and .936 save percentage and was a major reason why Ottawa advanced. Anderson is 16-16 with a .931 SV% and a 2.27 GAA in 33 career playoff games. His play between the pipes in 2012 was a big reason why the Senators took the Rangers to seven games and led the series three games to two.

Anderson is a stand-up goalie whose best attribute is his ability and willingness to play the puck. New York faced a similar type netminder in Price, which forced the Rangers to change up their playing style, dumping the puck in softly so that Price couldn’t handle the puck. They will need to the same here to add more wear and tear to the Ottawa d-man and prevent Anderson from triggering the attack.

Mike Condon, after replacing the injured Andrew Hammond, played 12 games during the regular season and backs up Anderson. He won’t play unless there is an injury but did a nice job keeping Ottawa afloat while Anderson was sidelined).

Playoff Schedule:

Ottawa Senators (A2) vs. New York Rangers (WC1)

Thursday, April 27, 7pm: NY Rangers @ Ottawa | CNBC, CBC, TVA Sports
Saturday, April 29, 3pm: NY Rangers @ Ottawa | NBC, CBC, TVA Sports
Tuesday, May 2, 7pm: Ottawa @ NY Rangers | NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports
Thursday, May 4, 7:30pm: Ottawa @ NY Rangers | NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports
*Saturday, May 6, TBD: NY Rangers @ Ottawa | TBD
*Tuesday, May 9, TBD: Ottawa @ NY Rangers | TBD
*Thursday, May 11, TBD: NY Rangers @ Ottawa | TBD

Follow @airjan23