I wrote a quick overview series preview blog Sunday. In the next several blogs, I will provide a breakdown of the forwards, then defense and goalie, followed by one on the special teams and the edges in the series along with my prediction. As a header, here is the first paragraph from that original blog. “The Rangers take on the Senators in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Ottawa defeated Boston 3-2 Sunday thanks to Clarke MacArthur's overtime goal to win their best of seven series four games to two. That win means New York faces a Canadian team in the first two rounds of the playoffs for the first time since 1937 (hat tip to Steve Zipay for that info). The Senators and Rangers have met just once in the postseason, during the 2012 conference quarterfinals, which the Rangers rallied from three games to two down to win in seven games.”
The Senators finished second in the Atlantic Division with 98 points. The Rangers finished fourth in the Metropolitan Division with 102 points and got into the playoffs as the first wild card from the East. Because of the way the playoff brackets work, Ottawa will be the home team and host Games 1 and 2 as well as possibly Games 5 and 7.
In the first round, I posted a behind the numbers article. What happened during the Regular Season can basically be thrown out now, since all that matters is what has happened already and will happen the remainder of the playoffs. Therefore, a similar blog won’t be posted. But, I will reference regular season numbers in the breakdown, but include how players and teams performed in the Quarterfinals.
First, some videos summarizing the first round win over Montreal to raise the anticipation level a bit more and help get you ready for the Eastern Conference Semifinals. I will post a new video each of the three blogs.
Forwards:
20 Chris Kreider - 93 Mika Zibanejad - 89 Pavel Buchnevich
26 Jimmy Vesey - 21 Derek Stepan - 61 Rick Nash
10 J. T. Miller - 13 Kevin Hayes - 36 Mats Zuccarello
40 Michael Grabner - 24 Oscar Lindberg - 19 Jesper Fast
Extras: Tanner Glass (healthy, played the first three games of the Montreal series. Came out not due to performance but because AV wanted to roll four skilled lines. Could play if series gets chippy), Brandon Pirri and Matt Puempel (healthy, likely to fill the role of Black Aces) and Taylor Beck (a big body, who scored in the NHL, but unlikely to see action this series)
(The Rangers finished fourth in the league in scoring but much of the dirty work was done in the first quarter of the season. Since then, it's been a mix of up-and-down, where the offense has disappeared for stretches only to wake up for a few games in a row, then fall back into futility offensively. AV can roll four lines, though save for maybe two of them and components of two others, the combinations could shift game-to-game and at times, in game.
The first round blog had a breakdown of all the forwards scoring during the regular season. I won’t run through that here but focus, as said above, on the playoffs. New York played the first three games with the forward trios mainly similar to how the season ended. That meant Kreider-Stepan-Zuccarello; Nash-Zibanejad-Vesey; Grabner-Hayes-Miller and Glass-Lindberg-Fast. While Glass played well, the switch from Glass to Buchnevich and associated shifting of the lines resulted in four skilled trios, which ultimately led the Rangers over the Canadiens. New York scored 2.33 goals per and averaged 34.3 shots per game against Montreal.
Kreider struggled most of the series, but did have a big third period and overtime in Game 5 to help New York win the game. Zib, who also had a rough series against Montreal, scored the game-winner in that contest. New York will need a lot more from each this round. What the team needs to be careful of is making sure that Zib doesn’t feel he has to justify the deal by outplaying Brass. If he plays his game and helps New York advance, that’s all that will matter. Buch has balanced out that line, adding additional skill to the trio.
Nash was a beast against Montreal. Despite scoring just two goals and an assist, he drove hard to the net and set the tone up front. Both goals were key while the assist was on Brady Skjei’s tying goal in the second period of Game Five. Stepan struggled against Montreal. As you have seen and will see, New York won despite some big games not producing. I expect step to rebound this series, as attention will be paid to the other two lines. Vesey showed he was ready for prime time. Playing with a snarl and bite, he made the play, showing skill and puck possession, setting Nash on Skjei’s goal and then found Max Pacioretty in Game Six. I expect him to have a big series.
Miller and Hayes, like the others mentioned previously, was not great against the Canadiens. But both had big games in the clinch and should build on that here against Ottawa. Zucc is the spiritual and emotional leader of this squad, playing bigger than his size. Two goals in the clincher continued his penchant for big game performances.
I have extolled the virtues of Fast and Lindberg all year. Against Montreal, you saw why. Each was almost always in the right place and on the ice late to protect one-goal leads. Lindberg wins key draws and can contribute offensively while Fast just makes plays. Grabner adds speed to that duo and provides another offensive threat, even if he doesn’t score.
As Miroslav noted in the comments to the prior blog, the long cross ice pass behind Kreider off the boards is a play that can work against the 1-3-1, taking advantage of his speed. In addition, the cross corner dump ins form behind the redline for a player screaming down the wing with a head of steam is another tactic they can use to get through that trap. However, those forwards must be on the same page as the defense and be in top gear when the puck is shot in to avoid the icings)
Semators
Forwards
18 Ryan Dzingel - 7 Kyle Turris - 14 Alexandre Burrows
16 Clarke MacArthur - 19 Derick Brassard - 9 Bobby Ryan
68 Mike Hoffman - 44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau - 61 Mark Stone
24 Viktor Stalberg - 15 Zack Smith - 57 Tommy Wingels
Scratches - 22 Chris Kelly (played in Game 5 against Boston, so he could be in the lineup at any time during the series), 82 Colin White (might play if Ottawa trails in the series and needs an offensive boost), 10 Tom Pyatt (missed Game 5 and 6 against the Bruins with an upper body injury, replaced by Kelly)
(During the regular season, Hoffman led the forwards in scoring with 26 goals – 13 of which came on the power play - and 35 assists, slightly exceeding his point total of a year ago. After a down 2015-16 campaign, Turris rebounded to score 27 goals and added 28 assists while centering Hoffman and Stone, who despite missing seven games in March, notched 22 goals with 30 assists. The second line was comprised of a pair of deadline acquisitions in Viktor Stalberg and Alex Burrows centered by Derick Brassard, who is a proven post-season scorer but had just 13 goals and 25 assists. Bobby Ryan’s upper-body injury healed late in the year, as he played and scored in game 82 against the Islanders, and he likely will assume a second line role. The best of the bottom-six is Jean Gabriel Pageau but Clarke MacArthiur, who came back last week from his concussion, could be an X-factor in the playoffs.
During the regular season, the Senators ranked 22nd with 206 goals for (2.51/GP) and 17th in the league at 30 shots for/game. In the playoffs, they scored 2.50 goals per game and averaged 31.2 shots. The Senators overall have better offensive balance and team speed than Montreal, which will be an aspect to watch in this series.
In the first round, as seen by the line combinations, coach Guy Boucher shook things up, creating three balanced trios. Dzingel and Burrows, who gets to renew acquaintances with Ryan McDonagh, now skate with Turris, who scored his first goal in the playoffs in Game Six, on the third line. The second line is comprised of Pageau, who tallied his only goal against Boston in Game 5, centering Hoffman (two goals and an assist) and Stone (goal and assist). Keep an eye on Pageau, since as Stan Fischler pointed out, he did have a hat trick in 2013, so he has shown the ability to rise to the occasion.
The top line had a big series, carrying Ottawa over Boston. Big Game Brass led the team with two goals and six assists and is joined by MacArthur, who won the series with Ottawa with the overtime goal in Game 6, and the Cherry Hill, New Jersey native in Ryan, coming off four goals and three assists against the Boston and returns to the New York area. MacArthur is one of the feel-good stories in the media, given his return from the concussion woes that plagued him the last two years and series-winning goal in round one.
It will be interesting to see how Brassard reacts to coming back to New York in the playoffs. He had several key moments in the Rangers run to the Cup and the Rangers can’t leave him open and allow Brass to wing up and use that blast of a slap shot. With those eight points, Brassard is now 4th in playoff points per game in the last 5 years, behind only Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Patrick Kane (min 50 GP). If looking for another subplot, there is Stalberg, who has tormented the Rangers since moving on after the 2015-16 season. Smith, who brings a physical presence and can chip in offensively, centers Stalberg and either Wingels, Pyatt or Kelly on the off-wing).
Playoff Schedule:
Ottawa Senators (A2) vs. New York Rangers (WC1)
New York Rangers Blogger • 
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