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In this edition of the hotstove, we share our thoughts on which forward rentals teams should avoid at the deadline.
Todd Cordell
Thomas Vanek.
Unless a team is absolutely desperate for a little more scoring, in which case they probably aren't overly good to begin with, I'd steer clear of Vanek.
Vanek is having a nice offensive season – he's scoring at a 23-goal pace – but the bad may very well outweigh the good with him.
Despite seeing sheltered minutes, he ranks last among nine eligible Canucks forwards (40+ games) with a 43.9 Corsi For% and 2nd last with a 42.5 Scoring Chance For%.
He is not a good skater, he is not good defensively, and he needs to be spoon-fed minutes in extremely favorable situations to be productive. Good teams generally don't take interest in players like that.
Adam French
Michael Grabner.
This is the type of move that seems like it will cost you nothing and reward you everything, but I can't see it going down that way. Grabner makes 1.65 million a year and has 49 goals in 130 games as a Ranger. That's quality production...on the surface. The thing is, Grabner is a very niche player. He truly needs to be in the right spot to thrive. He needs to be able to run at all times to be effective. Something that the playoffs stifling nature tends to shut down. See his third line level stats in that area as corroboration.
You also have to take into account that his last two 20+ goal (potentially second 30 goal) seasons are after a huge fallout from his "rookie year." Who is to say Michael Grabner is not the Radim Vrbata or Vaclav Prospal of speedsters with little hands? Players who play great in comfort, but can't perform when asked to play a different role?
As a team looking to trade for him, you will want to send very little. Why? Because he isn't a "star," however his goal scoring says that he deserves to be dealt for at least a late first. That's too much for him in my opinion. He's been very inconsistent outside of this year and is useless except on breakaways. Which...to be fair, he is very good at getting against teams when life and death isn't on the line.
Since his rookie year back in 2009/10, Grabner is number two in Empty Net Goals (coincidentally his league leading 6 of his current 22 are ENG's) scored.
This seems like a smart move for any team. Grabner plays the PK...but is terrible in goals allowed, but great at running a counter breakaway. He scores goals...mainly on the breakaway and empty net. He's an off the rush player and has shown he can't bring offense outside of a top-6 slot.
My final bit here is that he is outscoring (technically) Rick Nash. He makes far less. He has the same "oh well he'll play on the PK." He also is apparently not going to cost anything close to Nash. How is that? It isn't. Grabner would get a 2nd and a good prospect by a desperate team. I wouldn't do it and I see a flop of a deadline player when empty nets aren't available and things are tight.
James Tanner
My answer is Tomas Vanek. Vanek is an OK scorer, but he does nothing else. He is incredibly overrated and I really hope none of the teams I cheer for decide to go for him.
The other guy I wouldn't want my teams to trade for is Matt Martin. Why people still think players like this are effective is beyond me, but they do. Martin is being healthy scratched right now, and I don't even know if the Leafs would trade him, but if they do, whatever team makes the move should fire their GM.
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