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7:00PM ET NHL Draft Lottery, by Andrew Saadalla

April 30, 2016, 4:14 PM ET [1054 Comments]
Habs Talk
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At long last, the awaited NHL Draft Lottery will take place tonight at 7:00pm ET.

In what should offer Habs fans a glimmer of hope, their 22nd overall finish in the league standings offers them a 5% opportunity to land the 1st overall draft pick. Both the second and third draft picks are available at approximately the same percentage, while the league-worst Toronto Maple Leafs have a 20% chance of landing Auston Matthews, presumably, with the first choice. In the case of the Habs, in 2012 they finished 28th overall and secured the third overall draftee with which they chose Alex Galchenyuk and inserted him into the lineup the following Fall.

I’ve run the simulator three times, and here are my results:

1. Montreal Canadiens select 10th overall
2. Montreal Canadiens select 10th overall
3. Montreal Canadiens select 9th overall.

For what it’s worth, the Columbus Blue Jackets won the first choice twice in my simulators were the Habs picked 10th and the Edmonton Oilers once when the Habs picked 9th.

I assume that besides the first three choices, the Habs will probably draft someone who will need one to three years of seasoning before making the jump into the big leagues.

I wonder, however, with the prospects available in June and Andrei Markov finishing out his contract in 2016-2017, should the Habs consider choosing a defenseman with offensive upside? Nathan Beaulieu might not necessarily have the level of hockey sense or nifty stick-checking abilities that Markov does and has yet to unleash his potential in terms of points production. However, he’s got great vision, good hands, passes accurately and skates very well. On the left-hand side of the blue line, how much depth does this organization really have?

Otherwise, we all know just how desperately the Habs could use a (heavy) injection of scoring punch, and could look to select from among 8 of the top 10 picks who are expected to be forwards. If that's the case, perhaps Marc Bergevin should consider trading assets to move his way up. After watching the playoffs and seeing how well-built most of these teams are, I can't help but think that desperation will be the name of (the GM's) game this summer...

Enjoy!
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