When you look at these Olympics the whole thing begs the question:
How much firepower is enough firepower to beat the best goalies in the world?
It is relatively clear the most talented offense is playing for Canada.
(And yes, I believe Canada could put two teams in these games that could medal.)
It is relatively clear the most talented defense is playing for Team USA.
(although Canada is 1A in my opinion)
It is abundantly clear the most pressure is on Russia.
(although Canada is also 1A here...also ask the Russian Women about the pressure they felt against Japan yesterday...that was as entertaining a game as you will ever see. The Japan women were a joy to watch and they were robbed.)
It is always clear that Sweden and Finland can always ruin the party.
(although so can Slovakia and the Swiss who are gaining fast.)
But there is one aspect of this tournament that isn't clear. Not even close to clear. And it is the one aspect that will change everything. It is the one aspect that will win this tournament in my opinion.
Who has the best goalie?
You can argue all you want who has the top line. Ovechkin/Malkin/Semin, Crosby/Kunitz/Carter, Backstrom/Eriksson/Sedin, any of the other combos for Canada you can throw out there...
They are all crazy talented players and while some are (probably) better then others let's face the cold hard truth. None of these players suck. None of them will dominate the other. We have seen this before. A hot goalie gives any of the top countries a shot. Four years ago it gave team USA a shot. Eight years ago it found Finland and Sweden playing for gold.
The Difference Makers...
On Carey Price and Roberto Luongo...
I personally believe it will be Price when all is said and done, but Luongo has shown the ability to do this before and team Canada is a very loyal team. Price has yet to show at the NHL level he can do this. Remember, the one playoff run Price's NHL team had was led by another olympic goalie on our list.
On Miller and Quick..
Miller has already shown he can lead team USA to within one goal of victory and Quick has shown he can lead his NHL team to a Stanley Cup. This is going to be a tough call for team USA. In my opinion, if I have to win 1 game, to steal 1 game, there is no one I would rather have in net then Jonathan Quick.
On Varlamov and Bobrovsky
The last thing this Russian team needs is a goalie controversy and yet I predict we will see one. Both this guys are lightning quick but neither is tested in any sort of pressure situation that matches this. I see this as a major issue.
On King Henry...
Lundqvist has done this before and is calm and cool as they get. Sweden really has an ace in their pocket here. His game is in many ways built more for the Olympics than it is in the NHL, and in the NHL many have called him the best there is.
On Tuukka Rask...
The Finns play the most defined system in the world. They are probably the only Olympic team not requiring one second of practice time...Tuukka plays into that system beautifully and just last year took the Bruins within a few minutes of a possible game 7 in the Cup Final. Rask is the best goalie the Fins have brought to an Olympics.
On Jonas Hiller...
Here is the guy that could define this tournament. I just have a hunch the Swiss will be playing for a medal. This team is good enough and Hiller is great enough to be a huge factor in their net. This is the team no one will want to play.
On Jaro Halak...
Remember how I said that if I had one game to win I would play Jonathan Quick? Well if my two goalies were Halak or Quick my head would implode. Halak got the Slovaks to a Bronze Medal game in Vancouver and took a Habs team past powerhouse they had no business beating. His absence from the playoffs due to injury last year killed the chances of the Blues. He is pure and simple a big game goalie and his team is feisty and fun to pull for. Plus he has the best d-man in the world in Chara fronting him.
On Pavelec and Kovar...
Pavelec isn't starting game 1 for the Czechs....and instead we will see the KHL's Jakub Kovar face Sweden. I am a Pavelec fan but....enough said.
How would you rank the teams based on their goalies alone?
For me.
In Goal...
#1 USA
#2 Swedes
#3 Swiss
#4 Canada
#5 Slovaks
#6 Finns
#7 Russians
#8 Czechs
So how does this play into my predictions?
Ok, so it isn't ALL about the goalies. Luongo was
good enough four years ago with all that firepower up front...
It also has to do with the players and also their motivation.
The two most motivated teams in this tournament are the two teams who will play for gold. And to me there are two teams who want this more than anyone else.
The Russians of course are under at least as much pressure as Canada was in Vancouver. Maybe even more.
Team USA came too close last time and the way they lost...They are a motivated group.
Call me a homer all you want, but I am going to go out on a limb and say USA will beat the Russians in the gold medal game. Because of the goaltending and the Russian pressure. There is nothing worse than a team under immense pressure facing a goalie on a roll. In hockey that never ends well for the team under pressure.
The bronze medal game will see Canada defeat the Swiss...yes the Swiss...
Let's hear your picks?
RUMOR UPDATE
Since we last spoke I have updated Ruutu, Moulson, Jokinen, Hartnell, Gaborik, Briere and Cole on Eklund's Trade Rumor Chart
On Ruutu...
Continuing to hear the Blue Jackets have interest here...it makes sense.
On Moulson...
This really is looking like a two horse race at this point with Vancouver ahead of Ottawa by a neck...but with a turn or two to go...
On Jokinen...
The Penguins and Preds both have a strong interest. The Preds are buyers. Not sellers..
more to come...
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