Already I am hearing it. To be honest I was hearing it in Philly on Saturday afternoon. While watching the Senators beat the Flyers and get into the playoffs I was hearing everyone say how the Sens would beat the Canadiens in the first round. Listening to XM radio this morning everyone was picking the Senators. It's pretty shocking. It is as if the Senators winning this is a foregone conclusion...

I really don't get it. At all.

What the Senators did to get into the playoffs was astounding. Truly remarkable and a hell of a great story. Andrew Hammond has caught lightning in a bottle and found a way to become the leagues fastest one hit wonder since John Druce. And he deserves it all. The Bryan Murray story is amazing and touching as well. How can you NOT be pulling for the Sens when you realize the shape such a class individual is in? Mark Stone is a stone cold sniper and should win the Calder. He is as dynamic a player as the Sens have had in years. And he has been clutch.

I get all that...and should the Sens run the table I will be front and center to be so happy for them.

But let's look at reality a bit here.. Despite an unbelievable record down the stretch the Sens made it into the playoffs on the final day of the season, and honestly only could be in such a position because the Bruins and Penguins struggled mightily in the second half.

Also, and I would argue you even saw this on Saturday in Philly, the Sens are playing with house money and know it. Finding themselves no longer on the outside looking in, the Sens were NOT good on Saturday in Philly. At all. They sat back and looked tired. They showed signs of relief from their long run. They depended on scoring goals off of giveaways and the rush. They showed very little desire to throw a hit or get in front of the goalie. The Flyers handed them three goals on three horrible give-aways.

Ok, it was just one game, but there is history here. Often a team which has had to play at such a crazy high level for so long to get into the playoffs falls off once they arrive. Making the playoffs was the victory for this team. The pressure is off now...

Meanwhile....in Montreal....

The Habs have been consistent from gate to gate this year. Their work ethic has been second to none the entire season. They are a team built a lot like the Sens, around hard working forwards a stud d-man and an outstanding goalie...but they are a few more years down the line in their development...they won two rounds in the playoffs last season...and oh, by the way, their outstanding goalies we KNOW is no ONE hit wonder. He is top-of-the-line and he is playing at his best...he will win the Vezina and the Hart.

In order to beat the Habs you need to beat Price, and in order to beat Price you need to have snipers. That is why the Lightning have played the Canadiens as tough as anyone this year. You aren't going to get many ugly goals against Carey Price.

As far as experienced Snipers go the Sens have Bobby Ryan and Michalek, who is out and could be cleared soon...Turris scores hard nose goals. The Sens have found snipers like Stone and Zibanejad, Hoffman, and even Pageau...but none have played in the playoffs. None have faced the pressure.

During the incredible Penguins comeback victory last week the Sens showed true resilience under pressure, but in the first period the looked like a team that lacked experience under pressure. They reminded me of the Blue Jackets in the first period of games against the Penguins in last year's playoffs. They did manage an amazing comeback to their credit, but also remember the Blue Jackets came back on Pittsburgh...The Penguins don't shut down teams well at all.

The Canadiens do.

The Habs play relentless hockey and they are driven by well oiled system of players who have been under pressure before. The Habs team that went to the Conference Finals last year were only stopped because they lost Price. And this version is a BETTER version. Players like Gallagher, Galchenyuk and Desharnais have been better this year...and it is not even a stats thing. They have looked more mature.

Those of you out there know I am not exactly a fan of Michel Therrien. I think he manages his players and lines in bizarre way. Therrien is a gambler. He goes off of hunches. He has gotten quite a few nice hands dealt to him. He has a tough time with players that don't fit a certain mold he likes. His handling of Smith-Pelly baffles me. We have seen what Pelly brings, but only since Pacioretty's injury got him some ice-time. Smith-Pelle has been a great playoff player. He is tough on goalies. That is why I loved the trade at the time. I do believe he will be a factor in the playoffs....if he plays.

All that said, how can I argue with Therrien's success. Winning covers many wounds. You can motivate players by making them hate you until you lose. History is painted with such coaches. Not my idea of good coaching, but this is a results oriented business.. And Therrien has the results.

He also has #31. And PK Subban. And Max Pacioretty. Find three more competitive team players than that and you have yourself a Cup winner.

The Bottom Line.

This will be an entertaining series, a highly charged emotional series, but potentially a short series.. Ottawa MUST take one or both in Montreal to make this a 6 or 7 gamer...and even then I like Montreal's experience and Carey Price to win this one going away.

Today on the Cranky Hockey Writers show at 11 am ET we will talk opening round.



Today on the HockeyBuzzCast at 1pm.