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Another "Statistical" Look at Where the Wild Are Predicted to End Up

August 10, 2010, 5:06 PM ET [ Comments]
Brad Ratgen
Minnesota Wild Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Yesterday, we had Edmonton's hockeybuzz.com blogger's "statistical" analysis and a very optimistic outlook on where the Wild will end up, in the playoffs! Today, we look at it from a different angle based on the following comment by a reader/commentor from Toronto by the nickname of "Panek":

Okay,

So Mr. Cloutier came up with his "statistical" predictions of how the season might play out. No offence to Mr. Cloutier, but his analysis was far from statistical.

If you want a real idea of where the Wild might finish, look no further than NHL futures odds. Oddsmakers employ the best statisticians in the biz, and let's face it, as far as their accuracy is concerned, it's bang on. Sure, NHL futures are a bit tougher to predict than say, single game odds, so we can probably expect some variation, but the methodology employed in developing these odds has been refined over decades. This, my friends, is "true" statistics.

Here's how the futures shape up from one of the most respected books. You'll notice that the Wild are third from last. Sorry guys.

101 Pittsburgh Penguins +569
102 Washington Capitals +640
103 Chicago Blackhawks +733
104 Detroit Red Wings +1114
105 San Jose Sharks +1288
106 Vancouver Canucks +1068
107 Philadelphia Flyers +1473
108 Los Angeles Kings +1844
109 Boston Bruins +1844
110 New Jersey Devils +1844
111 Montreal Canadiens +2306
112 Buffalo Sabres +3697
113 Ottawa Senators +3697
114 Anaheim Ducks +3697
115 Tampa Bay Lightning +3697
116 Calgary Flames +3697
117 Nashville Predators +4624
118 Phoenix Coyotes +4624
119 St Louis Blues +4624
120 Colorado Avalanche +5085
121 Dallas Stars +5253
122 New York Rangers +6011
123 Carolina Hurricanes +7402
124 Toronto Maple Leafs +6475
125 Florida Panthers +8327
126 New York Islanders +9252
127 Atlanta Thrashers +9252
128 Minnesota Wild +7402
129 Columbus Blue Jackets +9252
130 Edmonton Oilers +9252


Not only does this model have the Wild not making the playoffs, but in the hunt for the number 1 overall draft pick at next year's draft which will be held in Minnesota.

Truthfully, this is more along the lines of what I expect to see next season. Not that I dislike the Wild. Just that the moves they made this year really don't do a lot for me.......yet. I'm sort of in "show me" mode as far as this team goes and really hate to get my hopes up too high lest they let me down once again this upcoming season.

I believe they are better up front and have at least 3 lines that they can roll continuously, if not 4. However, the defense is the exact same as last year for all intents and purposes. They didn't get the job done last year. What makes you believe they will this year? And without better defense, Backstrom and Harding will once again, in my opinion, post mediocre stats.

That's my take. What's yours Wild fans? And, as always, GO WILD!!!!!
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