When the time comes on June 24 for the Philadelphia Flyers to make the 18th overall selection of the 2016 NHL Draft, they are not going to change their philosophy on early-round drafting. They will pick whomever they feel is the best available prospect regardless of position. The Flyers will not draft based upon positional need (i.e., a big and skilled winger) unless there is otherwise a negligible difference between their rankings of whomever remains near the top of their list of available players.
However, for the Flyers to take a defenseman first for the fourth straight draft, he would have to be a clear projection notch ahead of a forward. Unless one of the top-end blueline prospects in this year's draft unexpectedly slips, I think it's more likely that this is a year where Philly is more likely to end up with a forward.
The 2016 draft is not exceptionally deep. It's an average to perhaps slightly below average crop. That does not mean there won't be future impact players drafted beyond the first few picks (for
instance, Claude Giroux was the 22nd overall pick of a 2006 draft crop that thinned out mighty fast after the top five picks).
It does mean that there's going to need to be some leaps of faith in development projections a little earlier compared to deeper drafts.
A good example of this is London Knights left winger Max Jones. There is no question that he has the size, strength, skating ability and competitive mentality to play in the NHL. He throws his weight around, plays a mean game and is unafraid to crash the net.
Jones is unrepentant about the enmity other teams have for him, publicly chalking it up to being disliked because he relentlessly outworks the opposition. He served a 12-game suspension during the OHL playoffs for a blindside, head-high hit on Justin Brack (Owen Sound Attack).
One question about Jones is his actual offensive upside as he moves up the hockey ladder. Will he develop more a Raffi Torres/ Tom Wilson type of first-round pick or a Scott Hartnell type who eventually produces a couple 30 goal seasons and rolls out 20-plus goal seasons on a year-in and year-out basis? It is hard to say right now because power forward types tend to blossom offensively a little later. Additionally, Jones plays on a very deep team that won the OHL championship and then went undefeated in the Memorial Cup.
Jones' father is former NHL forward Brad Jones, who played for the Flyers in 1991-92. Longtime Flyers fans may recall that the elder Jones was an extremely fleet skater -- smaller than his son, and much more of a finesse player -- but his collegiate scoring talents at the University of Michigan never translated to the NHL level. Flyers general manager Russ Farwell signed Jones for his speed but he was generally ineffective for the team.
While some pundit draft projections have Val'd-Or Foreurs right winger Julien Gauthier being available when the Flyers' pick comes up at 18th, there is at least a 50-50 shot that the 6-foot-4 forward is off the board by the time he might be in Philly's range. Scoring prowess (at least at the QMJHL level, which remains the highest scoring and least structure-oriented of the three CHL leagues, although not to the same degree as years ago) is one of his more well-defined assets.
Gauthier is one of the "older" players in the draft because he's an October 1997 birthday player, which sometimes gets players marked down a tad. Likewise, because his frame has already filled out, there are sometimes questions with similar players about how much more they will develop and how much stock to put in games played against opponents who are still physically immature. That's especially common when they play in a league where there's a little more time and space to make plays. How will he adapt when it's not as easy to impose his will? Is there enough all-around game?
For what its worth, Craig Button's mock draft has the Flyers taking Jones and the Islanders taking Gauthier one spot later. Kieffer Bellows of the USNTP (and the son of former NHL sniper Brian Bellows) is another possible candidate in this range.
In each of the last two years under Ron Hextall, the Flyers have explored options to pick earlier in the first round -- either via trading up or deals that would outright have brought an earlier pick. In the end, there was either no top-end deal to be made (one side or the other was not interested in what was offered ) or else one side or the other decided that standing pat was the wiser decision. The Flyers did end up trading up last year to select Travis Konecny, because he would have been off the board before their second first-round pick came up.
Hextall is very thorough, so he will undoubtedly weigh all possible options again. The Flyers already own 10 picks in the seven-round draft -- including five in the first three rounds -- so there is not much incentive to trade down for additional picks this year but there could be some trade-up possibilities.
If the Flyers were to trade up into the top 10 spots, a player such as Logan Brown could come into play. It's unlikely he'd still be on the board for the 18th pick. Ditto players such as Alexander Nylander or Pierre-Luc Dubois.
Final thought: Teams' internal draft ranking quite often differ significantly from Central Scouting, ISS and the ranks of professional pundits. That is especially true in years with little consensus outside of the top couple picks.
As the NHL Draft draws closer, I will have more thoughts on how things may shape up. The Combine (going on this week) usually brings things into slightly sharper focus, as there are always players who help or hurt their eventual draft position.
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Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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