With the Stanley Cup Finals concluded and a couple weeks to go until the start of free agency, 'tis the time of year for fantasy trade rumors, outlandish speculation and outright misinformation known as Silly Season. As usual, the Philadelphia Flyers are among the teams most prominently mentioned in the rumors.
HockeyBuzz readers and folks on social media often ask me for my take on rumors and what I think the Flyers will or should do. Generally speaking, I prefer to analyze things that have actually happened (or at least which are clearly imminent) than to speculate about what might happen. However, certain rumors are widespread enough to merit a reasoned response.
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"The Flyers have very little cap space available.". There are some variables at work that make it difficult to pin down an exact dollar figure of how much the Flyers have to spend this summer. However, as a ballpark figure, the team has somewhere north of $7 million and south of $9.75 million to spend when you include both the 10 percent overage allowed during the summer and the inevitable long-term injured reserve designation of Chris Pronger.
I strongly suggest you read Kevin Christmann's
straightforward but thorough breakdown of the Flyers' offseason cap situation and explanation of how the rules actually work.
The bottom line is this:
1) The Flyers are OK cap-space wise to get some things done this summer. It is not great relative to what other teams can spend. It would be a better situation if they could open up a little more space, but it is by no means a crisis.
2) The Flyers DO NOT have to pare down salary for its own sake. This has relevance to the next two rumors.
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The Flyers will trade Braydon Coburn to (most likely Edmonton) for (fill in name of promising but unproven young player). My response to this is, "Tell me the plan for adequately replacing Coburn and also acquiring additional upgrades on defense."
The Flyers are NOT in rebuilding mode. They still fully expect to be a playoff team again next season and trading Coburn would not be conducive to that plan. The team is looking to ADD to its blueline, not to delete a key piece or do the equivalent of taking one step backward and one step forward to essentially remain in the same place.
Coburn is not a star. He runs hot and cold over the course of the season and is sometimes prone to ill-timed gaffes. Nevertheless, he is not easily replaced right now. Coburn is the Flyers' most mobile defenseman and their ONLY one who has both size and skating ability; the others have one or the other -- or at least a high level of savvy and good puck skills -- but not both. Additionally, he is a durable player who eats a lot of minutes and rarely misses time with injury.
Lastly, Coburn is signed for two more seasons -- not one. Right now, on a leaguewide basis, $4.5 million for a defenseman who plays the number of minutes Coburn does is increasingly becoming a very reasonable cap hit. Hell, even Nicklas Grossmann's $3.5 million is representative of the marketplace for veteran shot-blocking types (for instance, Willie Mitchell and Rob Scuderi's deals were right in that same range).
Building through youth is desirable. However, the Flyers have no one internally who can absorb Coburn's minutes. There are no NHL-ready prospects who can step in and be 20-plus minute players right now. It's debatable if any are even ready to be 14-minute players on an every game basis.
Adding another unproven defenseman to the roster via trade could be good for system depth and pay off in the long term. However, in the short term, removing Coburn and replacing him with someone still going through his early-career learning curve would also probably hurt the Flyers playoff chances. His replacement would have to be ready to absorb a significant role.
At last year's Draft in New Jersey, the Flyers and Oilers had extensive discussions that were widely said to revolve around Coburn. The Flyers did not pull the trigger because the Oilers weren't offering enough in return for Philly to withstand the loss of Coburn. The same thing probably applies this season as far as the Oilers are concerned.
As I see it, the ONLY way the Flyers will trade Coburn this offseason is either if it is one piece of a bigger deal to upgrade the defense or a separate trade that will be announced in close proximity to a blockbuster move.
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Vincent Lecavalier has agreed to wave his no-trade clause for (insert team name). I don't think it has come to that point yet. Stage one -- seeing if the Lecavalier camp is willing to consider a trade -- has been done according to what Ron Hextall said during last Friday's media conference call to announce the re-signing of Kimmo Timonen. But things do not seem to be so far along in terms of seeing what trade offers are out there that it has come to asking Lecavalier to identify which teams he will and will not consider.
This much is true: The more flexible Lecavalier is willing to be about his destination, the easier it will be to make something happen in timely fashion. The Flyers are almost certainly going to have to retain some salary in the eventual trade, but the more teams that are involved, the more of Lecavalier's cap hit can be pared down. Of course, the latter issue is the Flyers' problem to worry about, not Lecavalier's. But if he is willing to consider a variety of teams, the sooner both he and the Flyers can turn the page.
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The Flyers are going to trade for (Evander Kane, Dion Phaneuf or fill-in-the blank big name player said to be on the trade market). It takes two sides to make a trade and making a blockbuster deal often involves trading at least one piece you really don't want to move.
As far as the Phaneuf rumors go, there is some logic behind it. However, the price tag would be enormous. How often have top-pairing caliber defensemen been traded in the NHL in recent years? Not very often, because the trade price is just too high. Nowadays, it's often tough even to acquire a second pairing caliber defenseman who is not an impending UFA.
There are some who think Phaneuf is an overrated player. To some extent, I agree. He is not a Norris Trophy caliber defenseman because he has some flaws in his game. There are also some ancillary considerations that make it a bit tricky to have Phaneuf as the centerpiece of a team's blueline. However, Phaneuf is in the next tier down of defensemen who are of All-Star caliber but not of truly elite (i.e. Norris Trophy) caliber.
I don't know what the Flyers will ultimately do trade wise between now and the start of next season. I am sure they will discuss a slew of different scenarios with many teams, including a few blockbuster possibilities. However, I also think the chances for a relatively quiet Flyers offseason are higher than some folks want to believe.
I think they will trade Lecavalier for a modest return and try to upgrade team speed and two-way play up front a bit more. They may perhaps move one of Grossmann or Luke Schenn if they have an avenue to land a two-way defenseman who can move the puck but also not give up so much size that the Flyers defense corps starts to become too undersized on the whole (remember that Kimmo Timonen and Mark Streit are undersized finesse defensemen, and Andrew MacDonald is rather slightly built and not very physical despite all the shots he blocks).
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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