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Meltzer's Musings: Silly Season Gets Sillier

June 19, 2013, 7:07 AM ET [663 Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Silly Season Gets Sillier

The last 24 hours have seen an explosion of Flyers-related rumors, including some seemingly contradictory ones. Such is the nature of the weeks leading up to the NHL Draft and the start of the free agency period. There's a reason why this time of year is called Silly Season. All reason and logic flies out the window.

Here's some advice to Flyers fans: Wait until something actually HAPPENS before getting worked up emotionally, either positively or negatively. Information that gets leaked ahead of time to the media, whether it comes from an agent or a team source, often has an agenda behind it. Very little should be accepted at face value, especially this time of year. It's best to see how things actually play out first, and reading between the lines is a must if you are to make heads or tails of all the craziness that goes on this time of year.

The Double-Talk Game

Here's a fictitious but realistic example of the double-talk games that go on this time of year and often get played out in the media. Any resemblance between agent-speak, GM-speak and the common sense understanding of truthfulness is purely coincidental. They all engage in various forms of "truth shading" and public statements that are negotiation ploys; some are just more ruthless and blatant about it that others.

Let's say the agent of veteran mid-tier role-player Joe Doe (brother of fellow NHLer John), an ex-Flyer who has become something of a journeyman, has put out feelers to various NHL clubs about their interest in his unrestricted free agent client. The agent has known for several weeks that the player probably will not be re-signed by his current team. The initial conversations with other clubs took place before they were technically allowed by the NHL's tampering rules, but there is no fear of anyone raising a fuss over it.

There's one particular Western Conference team the agent has ultimately focused on as the next landing spot for his client. The team's first-round playoff loss suggested they have a need for whatever specialized skill (speed, muscle, penalty killing, etc.) the player is known for. Also, he has played for that team's coach, Tommy Trapmann, before in a previous stop in each of their respective careers.

However, as the official start of free agency draws close, it is still not a slam dunk that a deal will be consummated. The agent wants to put a little more sense of urgency in the Western Conference team's general manager. What can he do?

The agent decides to leverage his client's past ties to the Flyers by leaking information in the Philadelphia area that the Flyers have interest; whether or not he's had more than an exploratory conversation with Paul Holmgren isn't important. Simply saying that Philadelphia was interested in his client sounds plausible, since the Flyers have the reputation of being a team that aggressively spends money AND also is one that frequently brings back former players for a second tour of duty.

It's now the early morning hours of the opening day of free agency. The agent gets a call from the Western Conference GM.

"I told you last week I'd get back to you as soon as I could," the GM says. "So what's going on here? Are you changing the terms on what we talked about last time? I'm not getting into a bidding war with Philly or anyone else. The price won't change. I'm stretching things as it is, but Traps told me he'd be glad to work with Doey again."

"No, no," says the agent. "We're good, so long as you can still do the two years and $5 million we discussed. I just want you to know I'm cutting you a break on that. There's nothing with Philly but another team in your division was floating $5.5 million to me about an hour ago. Thing is, Doey wants to sign with you and I want to get this one done today as soon as possible."

"Alright. Well, give me an hour over here," says the GM. "We'll get this done."

While the agent waits to officially close the deal, the agent fires off a text message to one of the prominent veteran Canadian media commentators. "Deal done with Team X.... two years, $5 million."

The agent's cell phone rings about 20 seconds later. It's the national media guy, who is usually the one he goes to first to break stories about his clients because of the wide "reach" it produces almost instantaneously.

"Can I break this now? It's done for sure?" the media guy asks. "But what about that stuff in the Philly press late last night? Was there anything to it?"

"No idea where the Philly stuff came from," says the same person who planted the info. "I never talked to Homer about Doey. But, yeah, go ahead and put it out right after noon. Just be aware that it might not be til around 4 that we get everything to the League office."

As soon as the national guy puts it out on Twitter and then reports it on the air, the signing will be common knowledge around the hockey world. The details will be know long before the team puts out a press release to announce the signing (but which will not make mention of the already-known financial details because it's club policy not to "officially" reveal such information and the team's PR/media staff is compelled to follow what everyone knows is a hopelessly antiquated policy).


Conflicting Bryzgalov Reports Surface

Let's get back to the current Flyers rumor mill. Yesterday, there was seemingly contradictory information put out as to exactly what Paul Holmgren may have said to Ilya Bryzgalov's agent, Ritch Winter.

According to Winter, Holmgren has told him several times that the GM believes Bryzgalov was one of the Flyers top players during the 2013 season and the goalie was not to blame for the team's problems this past season.

I'm pretty confident that Holmgren actually did say that, because he's said the same thing to the media repeatedly as well. Incidentally, I agree with the assertion that Bryzgalov was one of the few bright spots for the Flyers in the first month after the lockout. Early on, he regularly kept the team close in games where they deserved to get blown out. Thereafter, Bryzgalov's play was pretty much average.

Bryzgalov's subsequent on-ice performance from February to April was not a primary cause of the team's problems. However, after the first few weeks of the season, Bryzgalov's play in net was generally was not good enough to be part of the solution, either. That was especially true in light of the fact that he is a player on a extremely hefty contract whose personality is a lightning rod for off-ice controversy. Bryzgalov NEEDS to play at a much above-average level to offset the distractions and salary cap complications that have come along with his presence. Anything short of that just isn't good enough, at least not in the high-pressure Philadelphia sports market.

The area that's unclear right now is whether Holmgren's endorsement of Bryzgalov was accompanied by a pledge to Winter that his client would not be bought out this summer. One Philadelphia beat writer paraphrased, but did not directly quote, Winter as saying the GM told him Bryzgalov would definitely remain a Flyer next season and then quotes the agent as saying that he trusts Holmgren fully "until he gives me a reason to think otherwise."

When Holmgren was contacted by CSN Philly and HockeyBuzz writer Tim Panaccio, the general manager vehemently denied promising Winter anything as relates to a buyout or a return to the team. The GM said he will do what he ultimately feels is best for the team and, of course, did not elaborate beyond that as relates to any impending decisions about the other goalie who will join Steve Mason on the team's opening night roster.

It should be noted that, shortly prior to the 2011 trade that sent Jeff Carter to the Columbus Blue Jackets, Holmgren allegedly promised agent Rick Curran that his client would not be traded. There was an agreed upon no-trade clause in Carter's recent contract extension but the clause was not yet officially able to kick in for League-mandated reasons related to Carter's age and NHL experience at the time of the extension. During the window of time before Carter could veto a trade, he was traded to Columbus (where he soon made clear he didn't want to play, but had no choice).

It is impossible for anyone but Holmgren and agents Curran and Winter to know for certain exactly what was said in the conversations. I can only surmise what I believe to be the most likely scenario.

In the case of Carter, I suspect the Curran version was closer to the truth. Holmgren may have decided that honesty wasn't necessarily the best policy in that instance.

There had already been rumors for months, reported in the Columbus press and the Canadian media near the trade deadline of a potential deal sending Carter to Columbus for Jakub Voracek and a 1st-round pick. After the Flyers got swept from the 2011 Playoffs by Boston, Howard Eskin reported the Flyers were likely to trade both Carter and team captain Mike Richards.

Right up until the Carter trade finally went down, Holmgren vehemently denied the possibility of any such a deal and public assertions. I suspect that the GM also told Curran that he did not plan on trading Carter right up until the time the trade went down.

The fact that the long-rumored details ended up being the crux of the actual trade strongly points to the conclusion that the GM had a Carter trade in mind all along. He may have personally felt bad about the bad-faith implications of negotiating a no-trade clause as part of a long-term contract extension and then trading the player ahead of the clause taking effect. Even so, the GM decided to make the trade regardless of any PR embarrassment to the team or damage to his reputation as a straight shooter.

Holmgren probably didn't level with Curran that he had intended to honor the "verbal" no-trade at the time the Carter contract extension was first signed but then circumstances changed and trading the player had become an option he felt it best to pursue. Then again, what if he told Curran the truth and the trade with Columbus hadn't actually been consummated? Carter would have still been a Flyer after being made fully aware by his agent that the team was strongly considering trading him.

In Bryzgalov's case, it appears that the Flyers do not have a final decision made yet about whether to exercise a compliance buyout to get the remaining seven years of his original nine-year, $51 million contract off of their salary cap figure. Rumor has it that it depends on whether the Flyers can obtain Jonathan Bernier from Los Angeles or at least be confident of landing someone else whom they'd consider to be a suitable roster replacement at a more cap-friendly cost before they'd make a final decision to jettison the soon-to-be 33- year-old former Vezina Trophy finalist.

As such, there is really no reason for Holmgren to have said more to Winter than what the Flyers GM told Panaccio he'd said to the agent: specifically, that he did not see Bryzgalov's play as part of the problem last season. That way, the GM leaves the door open to holding onto Bryzgalov next season if other potential roster moves -- both goaltending and non-goaltending related -- do not shape up the way he wants by the end of the 2013 buyout period.

Now, one could argue that praising a player to his agent and saying he wasn't the problem in a highly disappointing season for the team may implies that the Flyers plan to keep Bryzgalov, but that's NOT the same thing as making an outright no-buyout promise. As a matter of fact, it's roughly akin what I call the "Dance of Death" with most head coaches whose jobs are very much are in jeopardy. Ownership absolves them of blame and then fires them anyway.

Last but not least, do not discount the fact that Winter still has a vested interest here in publicly talking about how Holmgren had positive things to say about Bryzgalov, and left the distinct impression the Flyers want to keep his client.

By doing that, even if Winter fully expects a buyout when all is said and done, the agent then has something he can cite repeatedly when trying to negotiate a UFA deal with other teams ("Even Holmgren said Bryzgalov was one of the Flyers best players last year... he wasn't the problem"). He is also stashing a little bit of extra PR ammo in his back pocket if need be to publicly suggest Bryzgalov got a raw deal in Philadelphia.

Weighing in on the Bernier and Ryan Rumors

I would not be the least bit surprised if the rumors are true that the Flyers are among the most active pursuers of trade discussions with Los Angeles for Bernier. The more that LA in in particular stirs the pot on how there's a dozen teams interested and seven or so serious suitors, the more they start to take leverage back in a situation where THEY are the ones actually working from a position of weakness if Bernier is not traded before July 5.

With the Kings' re-signing potential restricted free agent Slava Voynov yesterday to a six-year contract extension, LA has 15 NHL roster players signed for next season, and a little less than $7.7 million of cap space remaining under the ceiling for next season. As things currently stand, they would be vulnerable to a $3.36 million cap hit offer sheet to Bernier, which would carry just a single 2014 second-round pick as compensation.

What works in LA's favor is that many NHL scouts believe that Bernier is close to blossoming into a top-tier NHL starting goalie despite still being largely unproven at this still-early stage of his career (yes, it's been seven years since Bernier was the Kings' first-round pick but that is very much a normal development curve for many NHL goalies who go to have excellent careers). The more LA rattles the sword about all the interest out there, the higher the trade price they can extract.

The key for the Kings: Don't wait TOO long. Draft weekend next week is the peak time to maximize the offer and pull the trigger. Thereafer, the closer and closer things get to July 5, the more LA starts to lose their leverage. Other teams, including the Flyers, can play the "your trade price is too high, so we'll probably just offer sheet Bernier and see if you match" card.

Personally, I think the Flyers should be leery about getting involved in any bidding wars for Bernier's right. I do think the rumored discussions tied to Matt Read, who can be an unrestricted free agent next summer, make some sense (and I say that as someone who has become a big believer in Read's two-way game and current value to the Flyers as a low-priced and very versatile player). But I absolutely would walk away from a game of escalating trade bids for the 24-year-old goalie who has thus far been Jonathan Quick's backup.

I don't see a need to hyperfocus on Bernier. A mid-tier veteran such as Jaroslav Halak may be available in trade at a reasonable cost. Anaheim has Viktor Fasth and former NHL All-Star Game selection Jonas Hiller at the NHL level, so they have no need to rush John Gibson. The Ducks may not want to deal Gibson, but perhaps Hiller (an unrestricted agent next summer with a current $4.5 million cap hit) could be available. Meanwhile, the unrestricted free agent goalie market this summer could very quickly turn into a good buyer's market for teams that are patient.

How about the Flyers, for once, deciding to be a team that shows some patience in the market? They don't HAVE to rush in and trade for Bernier at an excessive cost. Keep lots of options open, because there's a lot of potentially viable alternatives out there.

In similar fashion, in recent years, there has been an annual round of rumors tying the Flyers to a potential trade for Anaheim Ducks winger Bobby Ryan. There is little doubt there are at least some decision-makers around the team who still covet the Cherry Hill native.

My own feelings on Ryan haven't changed from last year. Despite a bit of a down year this past season, he remains a fine offensive winger who can be relied on for 30-plus goals in a full season. But he has limitations. The reality of Ryan's overall game is that he's similar player to another former second overall draft pick, ex-Flyer James van Riemsdyk (who, in his fourth NHL season, outproduced sixth-season NHLer Ryan this year in both goals and points). If you didn't like JVR when you watched him on an every-game basis, you probably won't like Ryan much better.

Both players tend to be streaky in their production. Both are no better than ordinary as a defensive players. Lastly, for players of their size, their physical games can be spotty. But when they're on, they can score in bunches.

I would certainly have no objection to seeing the Flyers add Ryan. But I don't personally covet him enough to see the Flyers put together a multi-piece package, including the 11th overall pick of the 2013 Draft, to acquire him.

As least the way I see it, the team has bigger holes than lacking a winger such as Bobby Ryan. Those needs start with a long-term mission to rebuild the top end of the blueline (signing Mark Streit adds an offensive specialist, not a top-pairing anchor) . In my opinion, the organization is better off right now stockpiling assets and building system depth at all levels, not depleting from it for quick fixes.

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