Development vs. Young Man's Game
One of the main arguments made for short-tracking top prospects to the National Hockey League level is that the NHL has become more of a young man's game and there have players such as Aaron Ekblad who stepped directly in the league and excelled. However, there's a flip side to that line of thinking.
The players such as Ekblad or Connor McDavid are rare, special cases. The risk level involved is very high. It's not just a risk of the player flopping and being out of the league quickly. There is also a risk of the player not developing as well as hoped and, even if he has some longevity in the NHL, his career is less than it could or should have been.
It's not hard to find examples.
Did the Edmonton Oilers do Sam Gagner any favors in the long run by having him jump to the NHL months after he was selected sixth overall in the 2007 Draft? Measured against most hockey players in the world, he's had success (615 games played, 352 points by age 26). However, measured against what could and should have been his career arc if developed properly in his prospect years, he could have made greater impact than he has so far. He's never had a 20-goal season or 50-point campaign, and he's capable of both.
There are also in-house Flyers examples. Luca Sbisa's development, to put it bluntly. is a texbook case of what not to do. He never should have been in the NHL in 2008-09 even after he had a very good training camp. Physically, he had a mature body but his game wasn't ready yet for the long-haul. What happened was that he held his own early. Then, once opponents had a "book" on him and the grind of the season started to be felt, he hit the dreaded "rookie wall."
By that point, the Flyers had already burned the first year of his entry-level contract. The problem was compounded when the rookie defenseman was experimented with as a winger. Then he was ultimately sent back to the WHL's Lethbridge Hurricanes. After his first pro year, he was traded by the Flyers (albeit as a key piece of the deal that brought Chris Pronger to Philadelphia).
If anything, Sbisa went backward in his development. The almost fearlessness confidence and short memory needed to play his position were gone. He may never have become an NHL star but he certainly should have been a solid top-three or top-four. Instead, he ended up on the periphery of being a sixth or seventh defenseman.
Even a player like Dainius Zubrus, who has had a 20-year NHL career and played 1,293 games --a major accomplishment worthy of respect -- probably could have been a better offensive player at the top level. That was how he was initially projected: as a scorer with two-way upside, not as a checker who scored once in awhile. Going directly from junior A hockey to the NHL and bypassing major junior hockey (not to mention the American Hockey League) was not helpful to his offensive development.
There are the players like Justin Williams who go right to the NHL and eventually do reach or approach their ceiling. Elsewhere, there is also someone like Jeff Skinner who won the Calder Trophy after making the immediate jump to the NHL and has a pair of 30-goal seasons to his credit but whose rookie season still stands up to this point as his best overall season to date.
In hindsight, it was remarkable that Vaclav Prospal had a 1,000-game NHL career. I remember him arriving in North America to play for the Hershey Bears at age 18 -- skinny as a rail, speaking virtually no English -- and being thrown in the water to sink or swim. He was nearly lost as a prospect during much of year two and parts of year three but he rebounded. Prospal had to spend a long time in the AHL before he finally made the most of a Flyers callup late in the 1996-97 season (his fourth pro year) and then never again returned to the minors.
Every case is unique. As a rule of thumb, however, the cautious and patient approach is one that may not produce instant gratification but could have better long-tem dividends.
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2016 Flyers Alumni Fantasy Camp
The 2nd annual Flyers Alumni Fantasy Camp will be held Aug. 19 -22 in Atlantic City. The Alumni have assembled an excellent group of instructor/coaches this year, including Hockey Hall of Famers Bernie Parent and Mark Howe, along with the likes of Danny Briere and Flyers assistant coach Ian Laperriere.
For more information,
click here.
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