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Meltzer's Musings: Hischier, Niederreiter and the Burden of Expectations |
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There is often a tendency to compare NHL Draft prospects, especially European players, to established players who hail from their home country. Even when the comparisons are just to playing style, rather than projected future performance, it's not always fair or accurate.
In the case of 2017 draft prospect Nico Hischier, however, I can't help but think of the Minnesota Wild's Nino Nieddereiter. They are not of the same body type or playing style, but I think there are valuable lessons to be gleaned from Nieddereiter (apart from the fact that he is from Switzerland, as is Hischier) in terms of managing expectations, showing patience and accepting the strong possibility that even a high end pick can be a long-term success at something less than a superstar level but still a good NHL player.
Entering the 2009-10 season, the much-hyped draft year of the constant Taylor (Hall) versus Tyler (Seguin) debate as to whom would or should be the first overall pick, Niederreiter initially flew under the radar as he left Switzerland to join the Western Hockey League's Portland Winterhawks. As the season progressed, however, his stock took off like a rocket. Apart from the 36 goals he posted for Portland, Niederreiter really opened eyes at the World Junior Championships where he racked up 10 points in seven games. He also made highlight reels during a skills competition, when he pulled off a trick in which he flipped off a glove and then one-handed a top-shelf wrister into the net.
When the NHL Draft rolled around, Niederreiter was selected fifth overall by the New York Islanders. Despite being among the youngest players in his draft class -- he turned 18 on Sept. 8, 2010 -- he immediately received a nine-game trial with the big club (scoring his first NHL goal and posting two points) before being re-assigned to Portland, where he racked up 41 goals and 70 points in 55 games for a powerhouse Winterhawks team and then added another 27 points in 21 postseason matches.
The next year, Niederreiter was in the NHL. He dressed in 55 games for the Islanders, averaging 10:07 of ice time. For the entire NHL season, Niederreiter generated only a single point (his second NHL goal). The young Swiss forward then spent the entire 2012-13 season -- both during and after the lockout that shortened the NHL season to 48 games -- in the American Hockey League with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers.
Shortly after the season, on June 20, 2013, Islanders general manager Garth Snow made a trade right from the Mike Milbury school of impatience. He dispatched Niederreiter to the Wild in exchange for agitating winger Cal Clutterbuck and a 2013 third round pick. Sixty-four NHL games and three points from Niederreiter, four seasons of Clutterbuck 's 20-or-so points a year, and the draft pick used on Penn State's Eamon McAdam (who shuttled between Bridgeport and the ECHL as a rookie this season): that's all the Islanders have had to show to date for their top-five selection of Niederreiter.
Niederreiter, however, has quietly blossomed in Minnesota despite some injury issues over the course of his career. He's hit the 20-goal mark in three straight seasons (including career-high 25 goals and 57 points this year), has scored eight playoff goals and 18 points over his first 34 career Stanley Cup playoff games, gets under opponents' skin and put up very good underlying puck-possession stats in each of the last two seasons. He's still just 24 years old, and about to hit his prime as he continues to improve each season.
Is Niederreiter a superstar or a true game-breaker as an individual player? No, he's not. But he has become a well above-average NHL forward. The Islanders didn't reap the benefits of him being a fifth-overall pick but the Wild have gotten the better end of the trade regardless of how well Clutterbuck has performed as a role-player for New York in a few of his seasons.
That brings us to Hischier. Again, this isn't a stylistic comparison. He is a natural center and Niederreiter is a winger. Hischier is not as big and strong or the pure shooter that Niederreiter is, or as physical. He is, however, the better playmaker and dangler with better speed (although Niederreiter is hardly slow). The comparison here is based on draft-eligible year progression and the management of expectations thereafter.
Just as with Niederreiter, Hischier flew under the radar entering the 2016-17 season as he joined the QMJHL's Halifax Mooseheads. That soon changed, as he had an eye-opening WJC for Switzerland and also racked up 38 goals and 86 points in 56 games in the Q. Halifax general manager (and former longtime Chicago Blackhawks defenseman) Cam Russell, who previously coached Jakub Voracek and correctly pegged his NHL upside as a future All-Star caliber talent, has said that he views Hischier as a future bonafide first-line NHL center.
Maybe Hischier will become just that and maybe he will become a bit less, such as a top-six forward. Perhaps he jumps directly to the NHL and his early road is less bumpy than Niederreiter's was. With the development philosophy espoused by Flyers general manager Ron Hextall and assistant GM Chris Pryor, it is doubtful that if the Flyers select Hischier (or Nolan Patrick or even someone else) with the second overall pick of the 2017 Draft that the player will be thrown to the wolves at age 19 and then traded away for a third-line type and a mid-round pick by age 21.
Let's assume, however, that Hischier arrives in his early or mid 20s at a production level similar to what Niederreiter attained this year; the 60-point neighborhood. In today's NHL, that is actually pretty damn good. However, it's doubtful that some Flyers fans or newspaper sports columnists with would see it that way.
Heaven forbid if the second overall pick whom the Flyers took instead of Player X were to play in the NHL as a teenager and have one point in 55 games or seven points in 55 games (as Joe Thornton did as an 18-year-old rookie with the Boston Bruins after he was the hyped-to-the-moon first overall pick of the 1997 Draft). While some folks would understand that it was no cause for long-term concern and, in fact, was a trial-by-fire step in development, there would be a shrill minority screaming about the pick being a bust. There'd be radio call-in guests and negativity-is-the-norm message board missives endlessly comparing his rookie season to some other rookie putting up big numbers (even if it was totally out-of-context, such as the other player being several years older and playing on a line with a superstar, or some other apples-to-oranges sort of comparison).
Whomever the Flyers take with the second pick is going to learn quickly about how much pressure there is to play in Philly, especially when a player is taken so high in the draft. Hextall will be insistent that the player prove his NHL-readiness to earn a roster spot out of camp (whether this season, next season or possibly even two years down the line. He will learn that there's a big difference in time-and-space on the ice, with and without the puck at the NHL level. He'll learn that the conditioning demands are much higher in the NHL and what they thought was being a hard worker by junior hockey standards is an average work ethic for NHL players.
If Hischier or whomever the Flyers take with the second pick can absorb all of these lessons and emerge on the other side as a solid NHL player, it will not have been a bad pick. If he's a prodigy or a superstar, fantastic. Then it's a grand slam home run.
The truth of the matter, however, is that for every Sidney Crosby or Patrick Kane or Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews that comes along, there are a lot more James van Riemsdyk or Nino Niederreiter or Brayden Schenn types where they develop over time into above-average contributors but are a decided notch below franchise players. That doesn't make them busts.
Final thoughts: The NHL Entry Draft is just what its name says it is. It's a starting point, not a destination. There's a lot of work to be done for a player after he hears his name called and it does mean a team goofed in the first round if a few kids eventually surpass others selected ahead of him. There is a lot of educated guesswork involved on the front end and a slew of further developmental work ahead on the ice, in the gym and also in terms of off-the-ice maturation.
Don't expect whomever the Flyers select with the second pick to be a franchise savior. Don't get discouraged or impatient if he struggles early. Don't think the coach has a vendetta against him if he spends time as a healthy scratch or if low-scoring role players play instead of him in the third period of close games. Don't put him into fanciful trade ideas if he's not an NHL All-Star caliber player by 21 or 22 years old. With astute scouting, good development, some good luck in terms of staying healthy and playing with the right roster around him, there's a strong chance that an impact player will emerge before he even hits his prime.
If Nico Hischier is the Flyers' selection second overall, they will have a better, more skilled and deeper prospect pool for it. Ditto Patrick or Cody Glass or Gabriel Vilardi, etc. How these players would end up in a hypothetical hindsight re-draft five years or seven years from now is something no one can predict with absolute certainty.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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