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Meltzer's Musings: Eye on July, Draft Wrapup |
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SUNDAY QUICK HITS
* The NHL's announcement that the salary cap ceiling for the 2014-15 season will be set at $69 million came as unpleasant surprise to many of the bigger budget teams. The Flyers were especially hard hit. When one includes Chris Pronger's cap hit before the team gets its long-term injured reserve allowance at the start of next season, the team is already approximately $236,000 over next season's ceiling.
Keep in mind that teams are allowed to exceed the cap by a maximum 10 percent over the summer. Nevertheless, the Flyers still need sign a backup goaltender and they have a couple of restricted free agents who have yet to receive qualifying offers. Most importantly, the team's current cap situation severely hampers their efforts to pursue free agent signings and trades that would further complicate their cap situation.
"First on my agenda right now is to go back to the Skate Zone and take a look at our cap," said Flyers general Ron Hextall immediately after the Draft ended. "We have the hard number now, so we’ve got to look at it and see where we can try to maneuver."
* For the next few days, one of the biggest hurdles to trading Vincent Lecavalier for cap relief is that he is due a $2 million installment on his $8.5 million signing bonus when he signed with the Flyers after being bought out by Tampa Bay. No team is going to want to consummate a trade with Philly until the Flyers pay out the bonus. That's especially true in light of the fact that Lecavalier's real-dollar salary this season is $6 million (the cap hit is $4.5 million because the player's contract was frontloaded to the maximum allowed under the Collective Bargaining Agreement between the NHL and NHLPA).
Preferably, the Flyers would not like to take back any salary in a trade but that may not be possible. The rumored deal -- and remember it's only a rumor -- that would have Philly sending Lecavalier to Florida along with a Draft pick as an added incentive, would also supposedly have the Flyers taking the $3.5 million salary of Scottie Upshall in return. That would provide only $1 million of cap relief this summer. However, Upshall's deal expires after next season while Lecavalier's deal runs until 2018.
Another landing spot for Lecavalier that might make sense is Dallas. The Stars' top priorities this summer are to land a proven second-line center and upgrade a power play that finished 23rd in the NHL during the regular season (15.9 percent efficiency) and 14th of 16 teams in the playoffs (10.3 percent). Additionally, the Stars were reported to be the team other than the Flyers that most heavily pursued Lecavalier last summer.
The Stars have other options available to them to go after a second-line center. Although one does not know for certain, it does not sound as if Dallas will go after its former first-line center, Brad Richards, now that he's been bought out by the New York Rangers. Both Richards and former Tampa Bay teammate Lecavalier have the same deficiency: skating. Lindy Ruff's team plays a very high-tempo puck pressuring style and it may be tough for either Lecavalier or Richards to fit into the team's style of play.
However, let's play out a hypothetical situation: If the Flyers were able to trade Lecavalier to Dallas and had to bite the bullet on sending a non first-round (i.e., probably a 2016 second-round) pick along to add value -- alternatively, the Flyers would have to eat a chunk of Lecavalier's cap hit on their own cap -- what could they get in return?
The Stars' American Hockey League farm team, the Texas Stars, just won the Calder Cup. There are three young defensemen on the team who are NHL prospects. Former first-round pick Jamie Oleksiak is an untouchable at this point. I also do not think Stars' general manager Jim Nill would want to part with Swedish defenseman Patrik Nemeth, who is basically a much younger and much healthier clone of Nicklas Grossmann, whose role has yet to be filled by Dallas at the NHL level since Grossmann was traded to the Flyers in 2012. Nemeth appears to be NHL-ready and did not look out of place in his games with the big club this past season. He is a significantly better NHL prospect than Phantoms defenseman Oliver Lauridsen.
However, if I were Hextall, I would ask for Nemeth first and if I couldn't get him, would alternatively ask for a young Finnish defenseman by the name of Jyrki Jokipakka. The latter offers some size, mobility and decent positional defense. Jokipakka had a solid rookie AHL season for the Texas Stars and appears to have a bit of upside as a fifth or sixth NHL defenseman. He also had a good training camp with the big club last September prior to being sent to the AHL for some seasoning.
I am not saying any of this will actually happen or that there is mutual three-way interest between the Stars, Lecavalier and the Flyers. I'm just playing Silly Season armchair GM.
* Hextall was asked yesterday about the team's plans regarding three of its restricted free agents who spent most of last season in the AHL with the Phantoms. Hextall said the team will absolutely give qualifying offers to Jason Akeson and Tye McGinn but the hockey people "need to talk" about whether to qualify goaltender Cal Heeter. The Flyers severely lack goaltending depth in the farm system -- not even warm bodies under NHL or even AHL-only contract -- so they are in the market not only for an NHL-level backup but for at least one and possibly two goalies for the Lehigh Valley Phantoms next season. If Heeter is re-signed, he will be the default Phantoms starter next season. He is a decent AHL goaltender. However, it is clear by Hextall's hesitation that the organization no longer views Heeter as a potentially viable NHL backup in the future.
* There was a very nice moment in the seventh and final round of the 2014 Draft. The Calgary Flames allowed soon-to-retire scout Tom Webster to make their last draftee announcement from the microphone. As Webster was acknowledged for his near half-century in professional hockey, everyone on the Draft floor -- every team and every member of its respective delegation -- rose to their feet and applauded.
Webster, who served as a Flyers assistant coach under Terry Murray for two years in the mid-1990s, is one of the really good people in the game. I had the pleasure of interviewing him for an article back in 2007 while I was freelancing for NHL.com.
* What are the chances that any of the Draft picks made yesterday from the third round onward will go on to play even 50 games in the NHL? Not very good -- for ANY team's draftees.
The Hockey News did a study of this subject for their 2014 Draft Preview issue, looking at the 2004 to 2013 time period. The finding: even the team that has produced the most players who've played 50+ NHL games -- the Columbus Blue Jackets -- had a success rate below 20 percent beyond round two. The median percentage (the 15th-ranked Anaheim Ducks) was 10.6 percent, or nearly a 90 percent rate of latter-round picks playing fewer than 50 NHL games in their career.
The Flyers, who used 57 post-second round selections over that time period, had three picks who eventually hit at least the 50-game baseline that THN set: current Flyer Zac Rinaldo (taken 178th overall in 2008), Anaheim Ducks forward Patrick Maroon (161st overall in 2007; did not play any games for Philadelphia) and current KHL defenseman Oskars Bartulis (91st overall in 2005). The 5.3 percent rate of future NHLers ranked 28th over that time frame.
Keep in mind that these percentages could look better in just a couple years. Tye McGinn is 14 NHL games away from qualifying for the study's baseline. Shayne Gostisbehere will be a pro-level rookie in 2014-15 and is a definite NHL prospect. Nick Cousins may have a shot at graduating to the NHL at some point. The organization is also high on the potential of the likes of latter-round draftees such as 2012 Draft selections Reece Willcox and Valeri Vasiliev.
Lastly, the study excludes non-drafted rookie free agent signings such as Matt Read or Erik Gustafsson (who dressed in 91 regular season NHL games and nine playoff games for the Flyers before recently signing to play next season in the KHL).
* In light of THN's League-wide findings, the Flyers' seventh round selection of Linköping defenseman Jesper Pettersson yesterday makes a heap of sense. Yes, he only stands 5-foot-9 and will soon turn 20 years old but he is sturdy and strong. Just as importantly, he plays with lots of heart and determination. I've seen him play online (via SHL streams and World Junior Championship games) roughly a half-dozen times, and one can't help but admire how much grit and determination he brings, along with some pretty good defensive hockey sense.
I will tell you what: If Robert Hägg had Pettersson's innate compete level and focus, he would be the best defensive prospect in the Flyers' system instead of the third-best or fourth-best. Hägg has all the physical gifts but needs to get more focused and decisive about what he wants his game to be. One of Hägg's former Modo assistant coaches pegged Hägg's current NHL projection -- not his maximum upside but his path to date -- as that of a fifth defenseman because of some frustrations over his compete level and decision making.
The 60-minute focus and decisiveness questions are probably Hägg's biggest obstacles, because there is no doubting that Hägg has everything else -- size, speed, and natural skill -- to become a good two-way NHL defenseman with a lengthy career. It's not that he's lazy or has a bad attitude; those would be inaccurate and unfair descriptors. But he needs to challenge himself to find the next level to his game.
Pettersson wasn't blessed with the same natural physical tools as players like Hägg but he squeezes the maximum out of what he has. Pettersson works so hard that he actually has pushed his ceiling higher than it ought to be, and continues to improve each year.
When it comes to the final round of the NHL Draft, why not take a flier (no pun intended) on a young player like Pettersson? I would actually rate his chances at a North American hockey future higher than many bigger and more offensively skilled players who went in the latter rounds. Pettersson wants it more and if he falls short of the mark, he will at least have given his all to make it.
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The information below is repeated from yesterday's blog updates.
FLYERS DRAFT WRAPUP
Taken collectively, the Flyers' crop of picks at the 2014 NHL Draft consisted of players who can add some speed and puck skills to the farm system. With the exceptions of first-round pick Travis Sanheim and fifth-rounder Oskar Lindblom, Philly did not add much in the way of projectable "NHL size" but they did select players who play the game hard and with some upside to their skills. From there, we will see.
As with all teams, if Philly gets two future NHL players from the Draft -- and even one who becomes an NHL regular for multiple years -- they will have had a successful weekend. Those determinations on players cannot be made for at least three to five years.
Lastly, it worth noting that the bookend first-round and final-round picks in particular are players who are developing enviable reputations for being self-motivated youngsters with a lot of character. These are intangible traits that Flyers general manager Ron Hextall has said that he places just as high of value as pure skill.
Flyers scouting director Chris Pryor runs down the Flyers' draft picks
Paul Holmgren Post-Draft Interview Transcript
Special Note: Thank you as always to the Flyers' media/PR department for their yeoman, time-saving work in providing interview transcripts.
Q: What was the perspective like for you this draft for the first time being the club president, sitting back and watching everything from a different vantage point?
A: “It’s still an interesting event… you’re looking at the… basically the future of our team and our franchise, so it’s still interesting and exciting to be involved in, and I thought that our fans were tremendous… the support last night, the emotion in the building was great. Had a lot of comments from a lot of teams about that, so it was great.”
Q: Do you feel like through the trade this week, and through the draft that Ron (Hextall) has a similar vision to one that you had when you were General Manager?
A: “I think we have a lot of the same thoughts, but Ron’s his own man… There’s some differences there too, which I think is good.”
Q: How would you characterize the situation moving forward where the cap number is now, where you’re at, and what you have to do to be obviously competitive for next season?
A: “We’re no different than a lot of teams, we’ve got some work to do… to put ourselves in the best position moving forward, and into the season, so… get to work starting, I’m sure tomorrow… The pro scouts are in town now, trying to chip away at ideas and put some pieces in place to get going.”
Q: The event here was able to show off Philadelphia, what did it mean for the organization, for you to kind of be the center of the hockey world for a week?
A: “I think our staff, obviously the league does a lot of the stuff too, but our staff working behind the scenes did a tremendous job. I was really proud of our organization last night, and again today. We had a good turnout again today… what’s normally a light day, the second day, but last night was incredible.”
Q: Was it fun here? The fans we’re still pretty loud, especially during the Rangers and Penguins.
A: “They were loud. That’s Flyers fans. They’re awesome.”
Q: What’d you think of the number one pick (Flyers first pick)? You guys really have a lot of young defensemen in the system now.
A: “Yeah, it’s been a process over the last couple of years… I think Travis (Sanheim) is a smooth skating guy, he’s real good defensively, I think his offensive game picked up with the confidence he started to acquire going through this season… he made some huge strides this year, we’re excited to get him at 17.”
Q: Why did the scouts when you were there at 17 like him over a kid like Anthony (DeAngelo), and his offensive upside?
A: “There’s a lot of good players that we’re talking about and the layers of when Ron and the scouting staff go on through building your lists…it’s just the way it worked out. I mean we liked the player you mentioned as well and there’s some other guys we had right there too, but we decided to go with Travis. He’s the guy that we all as a group liked.”
Q: Hexy said he’s getting some teasing for drafting a relative (Sanheim). Are you one of the guys that teased him a little bit?
A: “Oh, no. I would never do that!” (laughter)
Q: You also talked about a discussion he had with you recently about later round draft picks…can you elaborate on that?
A: “Well, I think you look around the other teams in the league and their draft records it’s something that we… you know, you go through the draft book and you see who drafts well and who doesn’t draft well, and you see teams that have guys that they get in the sixth, seventh, fifth round that are productive players in our league and I think as an organization is it something we need to look at and we need to do a better job? I think you pick and choose times throughout the Flyers history where they have… you know Rick Tocchet was a great pick, Pelle Eklund was a great pick, you could argue Hexy is a tremendous pick later in the draft. You know that’s where your area guys gotta really hone in on a guy they like and then step up, be excited about that guy… And then that’s part of their job. We’ve made some changes to our scouting staff over the last couple of years and that’s kind of a work in progress too. I’m happy with the work they’ve done the last couple of years.”
Q: Is that an evaluation process or is that getting to know kids a little deeper and a better understanding?
A: “A little bit of both. I think… the communication of your staff is so important, making sure there’s the right cross over… You get different eyes on different players that maybe that area guy likes. It’s a whole body of work.”
Q: You think it’s fair to say from just from a philosophy stand point that maybe there’s been a shift more toward faster skating, more diminutive kind of prospect than as Hexy included rather than “the grinder type”? Do you see that?
A: “That might be just the function of the league. You know as the league continues to get faster, puck possession becomes so much more important. Probably a little bit of what it’s about.”
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PICK-BY-PICK INFORMATION
ROUND 1: 17th OVERALL PICK -- Travis Sanheim (D)
Scouts crave "the four S" attributes in a defense prospect: size, speed, skill, and hockey sense. Shortly after the Flyers made the pick, Flyers scouting director Chris Pryor texted me that it is fair to say Sanheim has the potential to have all four of those attributes.
The speed is already there. The size should be as he fills out his 6-foot-3 frame, The hockey sense appears to be above-average. The skill level is the area that opened eyes in the second half of this past season as he gained confidence, but he has the tools to be a two-way defenseman.
Asked what made the difference over the course of the season, Sanheim said, "Just confidence. I played with confidence and did more things with the puck. That’s what you need to do to be successful in the Western Hockey League, and I felt like I did that in the second half."
Sanheim played very well for Team Canada at the Under-18 World Championships, which helped further propel him up some teams' final rankings.
"It was huge. I think I opened up a lot of scouts eyes and showed that I was capable of playing at the top level against the best kids in my age group. I showed that I could be one of the top guys and be relied upon in all situations, so it was a good tournament for me," said Sanheim.
This is what I wrote about Sanheim in my June 5 blog:
The 2014 NHL Draft may not have as many highly touted names as last year's crop of talent, but that by no means makes this a subpar year for NHL prospects. Every year, it is common to hear that, beyond the top few picks of the first round, there really isn't much of a difference between the projected ceilings of most of the players chosen in the top 40 to 50 picks.
That does not mean, of course, that no one thinks there will be breakout stars beyond the top couple picks or that some players will develop into NHL regulars while others will not. Likewise, it does not mean there won't be some pleasant surprises (or even a future star or two) to emerge from the later rounds.
What it means is that every team will have its own internal rankings of prospects that could, on the surface, differ widely from what other teams and Central Scouting produces. One team may have a player in its top 10 whereas another organization has the same player 35th and Central Scouting has him 15th on its North American/European list. The rankings vary widely but the disparities in the actual evaluations are usually subtle ones.
For example, in his most recent Draft-related podcast on TSN, former Calgary Flames general manager Craig Button opined that this year's draft could prove to be a rather deep one in terms of players who go on to become NHL regulars for a number of years. He added that he had puzzled over whom to leave off of his personal top 60 and top 100 rankings for TSN this year, whereas that is not is the case in other years.
One of the biggest late-risers in the 2014 NHL Draft class is Calgary Hitmen (WHL) defenseman Travis Sanheim. Although he doesn't get much notice among those who rely primarily on Central Scouting's ratings to determine the top prospects in each year's Draft class, the 53rd-ranked North American skater is very much on the radar screen of NHL teams to the point that it would not be much of a surprise -- or a reach by the team that selects him -- if he is taken in the first round of this year's Draft. Even in the Central Scouting ratings, Sanheim rose with a bullet from his mid-term (167th) to final ranking.
Sanheim reportedly met with all 30 NHL teams at the recent Combine. A team not meeting with a player is not necessarily due to a lack of interest (for instance, the Flyers did not meet with Sean Couturier in 2011 but selected him with the eighth overall pick). However, when a team does meet with a player, they do so because they like something about the player on the ice and want to find out a little more about him.
In Sanheim's case, the odds are pretty good that even teams that were simply doing a little extra due diligence on the player but have early first-round picks would consider taking him if they were to acquire an additional pick later in the round. If he makes it to the second round, Sanheim is a strong potential candidate to be taken by the first team that does not have a higher-ranked player on their internal list fall to them.
Sanheim fits the profile of the type of defenseman that NHL teams look for nowadays. He has a 6-foot-3 frame that still needs to fill out a bit but also has good wheels and two-way upside.
An untouted first-year WHL player, Sanheim kept things very simple early in the season. He posted three points through the first 21 games of the season as he focused mainly on positional play. His physical profile, skating and first-pass ability along with his general reliability in his own zone were sufficient to get him the 167th spot on the Central Scouting mid-term list.
Thereafter, Sanheim got increasingly comfortable and started to assert himself offensively. As his role grew into that of all-situations player, Sanheim's point totals rose steadily. Paired with fellow 2014 Draft prospect Ben Thomas, Sanheim finished the season with five goals, 29 points and a plus-25 ranking.
Sanheim also made a strong final impression on NHL scouts. Once again paired with Thomas, he had a very strong Under-18 World Championships tournament for Canada, posting six assists and a plus five rating in seven games while also taking care of business in his own of the ice.
Travis' twin brother, Taylor, is a forward whose WHL rights belong to the Brandon Wheat Kings. He was limited to nine games -- all at the Junior A level -- this season. In the meantime, Travis shot up the charts among NHL scouts. The Sanheim twins turned 18 on March 29.
Travis Sanheim's rapid development this season, which was partially hastened by an injury to Hitmen captain Jaynen Rissling (a Washington Capitals prospect), was remarkable. Rather than being a "reach" of a first-round Draft candidate, he may actually be a fairly safe pick relative to the inherent risks of drafting defensemen and nurturing them through their learning curve.
Does Sanheim currently project as a franchise defenseman in the NHL? No, and he may not be a number two, either.
However, assuming that he continues developing and stays healthy, Sanheim has all the tools to become the type of two-way defenseman that moves the puck efficiently, occasionally chips in some timely offense and also provides reliable coverage in his own zone without being outmuscled by the league's big, strong forwards. Those players are highly desirable.
Players like Sanheim will never be "sexy" draft picks because they probably won't post eye-catching point totals. However, he fits the profile of many long-tenured NHL defensemen when they were his age. That is not a guarantee of an NHL career but he's off to a good start in the pre-Draft phase of his development.
ROUND 2: 48th OVERALL PICK -- Nicolas Aube-Kubel (W/C)
The Flyers selected Val-d'Or (QMJHL) forward Nicolas Aube-Kubel with the 48th overall pick of the draft. An undersized but skilled forward who can play both wing and center, Aube had a good second season of major junior hockey.
The word on him is that he is better with the puck than without it at this stage of his career, and needs to add some muscle. Aube-Kubel (5-foot-11, 179 pounds) notched 22 goals and 53 points in 65 games this season.
The Hockey News had Aube-Kubel ranked 60th overall. The general consensus on him was that he would fall in the second or third round. Side note: Aube-Kubel's agent is Phil Lecavalier, the brother of Vincent.
ROUND 3: 86TH OVERALL PICK -- Mark Friedman (D)
With the conditional Draft pick acquired from Boston in the Andrej Meszaros trade, the Flyers selected Waterloo (USHL) defenseman Mark Friedman.
A small (5-foot-10, 182 pound) offensive-minded blueliner with a righthanded shot, Friedman was one of the top offensive defenseman in the league this year, notching 10 goals and 40 points in 51 regular season games and posting seven points in the playoffs.
Friedman is slated to play collegiate hockey next season for Bowling Green University. He will play under head coach Chris Bergeron and assistants Barry Schutte and Ty Eigner. The Flyers will have a four-year window to hold Friedman's rights and evaluate his progress; an advantage over the 2-year window for signing CHL players.
"He's in a good spot," said Flyers scouting director Chris Pryor.
Side note: The New York Islanders select Russian goalie Ilya Sorokin with 3rd-round pick acquired from the Flyers in the Andrew MacDonald deal. The Flyers also traded their 4th-round
pick to the Islanders in the trade, which New York used on the selection of Quinnipiac swingman Devon Toews.
Round 5: 138th overall -- Oskar Lindblom (W)
A big, strong winger in the Brynäs system, Lindblom started out the year on a downward trend from his preseason rankings. However, he finished the season with a flourish to occupy the 23rd spot on Central Scouting's final European skater list. At the Swedish J20 level, he was dominant in the SuperElit playoffs, racking up six goals in seven games. To cap off the season, he posted six points (three goals, three assists) for Sweden at the U18 Worlds.
Lindblom spent most of the 2013-14 season with the Brynäs J20 team but appeared at three different levels over the course of the season. He played six J18 games but was clearly too good for that level. Later, he made his SHL debut with the senior team, dressing in four games but playing very sparingly. It took him a while to get going even at the J20 level, but when he finally hit his stride late in the year, he began to trend back in the right direction.
There are no frills to Lindblom's game and he is willing to battle for the puck. His size and style are well-suited to the North American game and his skating is improving. The 6-foot-2, 185-pounder played his best games of the year at the most important time of the season, and that is an encouraging sign.
Round 6: 168th overall -- Radel Fazleev (W/C)
A smooth-skating Russian forward selected 52nd overall by the Calgary Hitmen in the 2013 CHL Import Draft, Radel Fazleev had a relatively quiet offensive first season in the Western Hockey League but showed a willingness to battle for pucks and display hints of two-way upside. Offensively, Fazleev posted 25 points (five goals, 20 points) in 38 games. He was a teammate of Flyers' first-round pick Travis Sanheim.
Fazleev also represented Russia at the Under-18 World Championships, posting one assist in five games.
Listed at an even six-feet tall and 180 pounds, Fazleev is a "tools" player who has yet to translate that into a defined role. However, he was highly regarded enough to be selected ninth overall by Ak Bars Kazan in the first-round of the 2013 KHL Draft.
As with many Russian players, Fazleev may opt to return home if his NHL opportunities seem limited. In the short term, at least, he is expected to remain in North America.
Round 7: 198th overall -- Jesper Pettersson (D)
With their final pick of the 2014 Draft, the Flyers opted for soon-to-be Linköping defenseman Jesper Pettersson. A valuable member of Team Sweden's blueline corps at the 2014 World Junior Championships, Pettersson is a regular starter in the SHL.
Built like a fireplug at just 5-foot-9 but with a muscular 190 pounds on his frame, Pettersson plays with a huge heart and is not at all afraid to mix things up physically. He has a very high level of hockey sense and also makes a quality first pass.
Pettersson has never displayed much of an offensive bent to his game, but sometimes surprises opponents with intelligent pinches. His moxie, work ethic and defensive sense are his his main attributes.
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Follow Bill Meltzer on Twitter: @billmeltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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