Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 

Meltzer's Musings: Defenseman Development

July 9, 2014, 8:05 AM ET [661 Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
A funny thing has happened in the Philadelphia Flyers' farm system over the last three years: A franchise that has often struggled to draft and develop their own NHL-level defensemen has made a concerted effort to stock up on defense prospects in the last three Drafts. While it may still take a few years to pay dividends at the NHL level, the Flyers have steadily increased the odds that at least a couple of the current prospects in the pipeline will someday blossom into above-average NHL defensemen.

One of the biggest root causes of the Flyers' salary cap issues has been the lack of young homegrown defensemen on entry-level or bridge contracts. On a leaguewide basis, salaries for veteran blueliners who have reached unrestricted free agent eligibility (or at least are close to it and signed multi-year extensions to pre-empt UFA years) have skyrocketed.

Quite simply, the more UFA-aged veteran defensemen that a team has, the more disproportionate the percentage of a club's total salary cap figure will be devoted to the blueline.

In the NHL, the hierarchy of defensemen can be viewed as a pyramid.

At the top are the very rare franchise defensemen who are perennial Norris Trophy candidates. In their entire franchise history, the Flyers have only had two such players: Mark Howe and, all too briefly, Chris Pronger. The next, slightly wider tier, are All-Star caliber defensemen. Kimmo Timonen played to this level for much of his career before showing gradual signs of decline. Ditto Eric Desjardins and five-time All-Star Jimmy Watson.

The pyramid widens further in the middle. These defensemen do certain things well enough to be above-average in those facets of the game but also have one or more significant flaws in their games. Moving down to an even wider tier, there are third-pairing specialists who do one thing well and are perhaps passable in another area. However, these players should not be relied upon for more than about 12 to 14 situation-based minutes of ice time per game.

At the very wide base of the pyramid, there is a cadre of defensemen who are barely serviceable even as NHL specialists. They may be able to eke out about 10 carefully handpicked minutes of ice time per game or to fill in for an injured teammate for a few games but these are not players in whom coaches have a high degree of trust in close games.

The good news about the Flyers current starting defense corps is that everyone individually fits above that dreaded bottom tier. They are all roughly in the middle, with some players a half-notch above others. Depth-wise, that has been an improvement over the years when the team held its breath as the likes of Ryan Parent and Lukas Krajicek -- both of whom, incidentally, were once hyped first-round picks -- were in the starting lineup for stretch-drive and playoff tilts.

The bad news about Philly's defense corps: Beyond the lack of a franchise defenseman, there is really no one who could be described as a bona-fide All-Star caliber defenseman. Timonen has accumulated too much wear and tear and no longer plays at his top level for months at a time. The rest all have other limitations and assets, and the Flyers-specific mix of seven defensemen (including recently sign Nick Schultz) simultaneously teeters on the brink of either tilting towards being deficient in mobility and puck skills or becoming too undersized and lacking muscle and physicality, depending on which one would be deleted or added.

Unfortunately, in today's NHL market, that's what $25 million worth of salary cap space will buy. That does not even include Pronger's remaining three seasons of having his $4.94 million cap hit designated for long-term injured reserve.

Guess what, folks: The grass isn't greener on the other side. The types of defensemen that other teams make available in trade or who hit the open market as unrestricted free agents this summer are usually overpriced, limited as players in one or more significant ways or are players in their mid-to-late 30s.

That is why teams tend to horde what they already have; for instance, the Flyers moved quickly to lock up prospective UFA defenseman Andrew MacDonald after they acquired him from the Islanders. They had to pay him open market value (read: overpay both in salary and term). MacDonald really should not be a $5 million cap hit player with a six-year contract, but the Flyers paid him as if he'd been signed on July 1 as a UFA.

The MacDonald deal wasn't all that much more outrageous than Matt Niskanen parlaying a career year into a seven-year, $5.75 million cap hit contract. The Brooks Orpik ($5.5 million for five years) and Deryk Engelland (a career sixth defenseman getting $2.9 million for three years) deals on July 1 were even more reflective of the staggering open market prices.

Even in handpicking Pittsburgh as his destination and taking a one-year, $4 million contract -- a relative bargain for a defenseman of his skill level -- Christian Ehrhoff is still making out like a bandit. Between his salary in Pittsburgh and his $857,000-plus buyout check from the Buffalo Sabres, Ehrhoff is still going to be collecting more next season than he would have had Buffalo not used a compliance buyout to get rid of a contract that was slated to run until 2020-21. Oh, and Ehrhoff will a UFA again next summer and stands to collect a higher premium if he has even an average season in 2014-15 by his standards.

Based solely on advanced stats from last season, some folks described Anton Strålman's UFA deal with Tampa Bay -- $4.5 million per season on a five-year deal -- as a relative bargain. Viewed another way, however, it can be seen as a player who was heading for the bottom-of-the-pyramid scrap heap as an offensive specialist remaking his game as middle-of-the-pyramid defensive defenseman with good mobility and smarts but still lacking in size and physicality. I don't see what he got from Tampa as a bargain so much as a less outrageous overpayment than someone like Orpik got.

At any rate, in order for the Flyers to get a few years of relief from the cycle of constantly trading Draft pick assets and then spending open market prices to lock up middle-of-the-pyramid to specialist defensemen, it is imperative that they nurture some of their own defensemen in the system into bonafide NHL players. Even if none of them reach the top of the pyramid or next step down, simply having a few mid-range NHL players on entry level or bridge contracts will open up salary cap space to address other needs.

The thing that I like best about the Flyers current crop of defense prospects is that they span a gamut of playing styles and physical attributes. I have heard scouts talk about the Four S factors in projecting upside: size, speed, skill and sense.

Looking at the most notable defensemen who will be at the upcoming Development Camp, I would describe each of them as possessing the potential to have at least two of the four traits working for them (i.e., enough to someday have a role) and a couple who have the potential to have three or even all four.

Here are thumbnail sketches of nine players worth keeping an eye on at Development Camp and beyond. Note that Phantoms veterans Brandon Manning and Oliver Lauridsen and Russian defenseman Valeri Vasiliev will not be in attendance.

Samuel Morin: The size is there. The skill and skating have been coming along steadily. Although he is a good skater for such a big man, Morin has been working to correct some flaws in his footwork. In terms of hockey sense, the main challenge with him is sometimes to calm him down. While it is possible that he could have such a good training camp in September that he cracks the Flyers' NHL roster, it is more likely that Morin spends one additional season in the QMJHL. Ron Hextall has said repeatedly that he would rather err on the side of caution with player development. There is no such thing as being "too NHL ready" but there have been plenty of once-promising young players who have been ruined by being rushed to the NHL.

Travis Sanheim: The Flyers' 2014 first-round pick is already a fine skater and shows remarkable poise for a defenseman his age. The rest is raw, but the upside is very high. His frame needs to fill out. He needs to challenge himself to play more physically. His puck skills are good but he's only scratched the surface of his potential to push the offensive play. There are hints of above-average hockey sense.

Shayne Gostisbehere: The only thing Gostisbehere lacks is size, and his ability to handle big forwards in the defensive zone at the NHL level is the main question mark he faces as he enters his first full pro season. Phantoms coach Terry Murray has said that he wants to encourage Gostisbehere to take advantage of his speed and ability to push the offensive play. The trick will be knowing how to recover when he gets caught, which is tougher to do in the pro game than in college hockey. In terms of skating, shooting and passing the puck, Gostisbehere is the most refined of all Flyers defense prospects. There is a chance he could see time with the big club next season, but it appears the organization prefers that he at least starts the season in Lehigh Valley.

Robert Hägg: All the physical tools are there. The question with Hägg is how much he wants to challenge himself to elevate both halves of his two-way game. Over the last year, the defense came along a little further than the offensive game, but that was largely opportunity based. He has to have a better game plan for what he wants to do on each shift and find an identity as a player. I believe that Hägg's two-way ceiling is quite high but I also think his early path with Modo before coming to the NHL was that of a player who settles into the middle tier due to consistency issues. The main thing he needs to do as a Phantoms rookie next season is to start to find his identity as a defenseman.

Mark Alt: The big-framed Phantoms defenseman is probably not quite NHL ready but also not that far away. He is probably never going to put up many points but he has some mobility to offer and generally keeps things fairly simple.

Mark Friedman: The undersized defenseman was one of the top offensive blueliners in the USHL and also displayed a two-way game at that level. He skates well and has a heavy shot and is righthanded to boot. Friedman plays with a high degree of self-confidence, reminiscent of Gostisbehere. He is still raw, however, and will need seasoning in collegiate hockey (or major junior hockey, if things don't work out at Bowling Green for whatever reason).

Reece Willcox: One of the most overlooked prospects in the Philly system, Willcox has developed steadily at Cornell in the two years since the Flyers drafted him out of Junior A hockey. Good size, good mobility, good poise, good first pass ability. He lacks physicality and could stand to challenge himself to elevate the offensive end of his game. Nevertheless, as he approaches his junior year of college hockey, Willcox is very much on the right track.

Jesper "Pitbull" Pettersson: If he wasn't a 5-foot-9 defensive defenseman, he'd have been drafted two years ago. Pettersson plays with a high compete level and not only is not afraid of taking a hit to make a play, he likes to initiate it with his fireplug-like frame. Pettersson knows what he is and what he isn't; which means he keeps things simple with the puck. As a no-risk 7th round pick in this year's Draft, the 20-year-old Swede is an interesting dark horse.

Terrance Amorosa: Coming off a good season in the USHL that saw him develop at a slow-but-steady rate, Amorosa will be a freshman at Clarkson next season. He may need all four collegiate seasons but there are some interesting raw materials of a mobile two-way defenseman.
Join the Discussion: » 661 Comments » Post New Comment
More from Bill Meltzer
» Quick Hits: Flyers-Habs Wrap, Fedotov, Phantoms
» Flyers Gameday: 3/28/24 @ MTL
» Wrap: Flyers Lose 6-5 OT Game to Rangers
» Flyers Gameday: 3/26/24 @ NYR
» Quick Hits: Flyers-FLA Wrap, Flyers Daily, Phantoms, Bigger than Hockey