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Meltzer's Musings: Defense/Offense Conundrum, Ghost, Giroux, Goalies |
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MELTZER'S MUSINGS: FEBRUARY 7, 2017
1) Exiting the NHL All-Star break with a horrific clunker in Carolina, the Philadelphia Flyers have clearly placed a heavy emphasis on playing tighter team defense. They've significantly cut back on the number of shots and quality of chances they've yielded over the last three games.
Last night, the Flyers held the St. Louis Blues to just one shot for the first 22:01 of the game, two shots over the first 27:58 and 16 for the game. The only big miscue was the one that ended up in the net as an early third period breakaway goal by Kenny Agostino.
Unfortunately, the Flyers right now have very little margin for error because they are generating so little offensively in terms of both quantity and quality of chances. The team has relied very heavily on its power play -- not unique to this season by any means -- to do the heavy lifting offensively. That's living dangerously because even the very best power plays go through ebbs and flows. Right now, the power play is not creating very much.
The bigger issue is that the Flyers must get better at five-on-five. Defensively, on an overall season basis, the problem really hasn't been one of quantity of shots yielded; it's been the tendency toward the big breakdown that yields high-danger chances. Cutting those down was a must (and remains so) but to generate few of their own chances overall and virtually no sustained attack isn't progress, either. Needing to scratch out 2-1 or 1-0 wins every night is no better than trying to outscore your breakdowns in a 5-4 or 6-5 game. Neither is sustainable for very long.
A big problem for the Flyers, especially of late, has been lack of ability for the defense to get the puck up the forwards and to also chip in offensively. It seems like a long time ago since the Flyers' defense was leading the NHL in production at one point this season. Simultaneously, the forwards need to do more with the chances they do get. That has to start with Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek but goes right on down the line.
2) There is often a tendency among fans, especially nowadays, to hyper-focus on a single player. Right now, folks are apoplectic about Shayne Gostisbehere being a healthy scratch the last three games and five times overall this season. That's understandable, especially in light of the team having been shut out in the last two games and creating little offense even it their 3-1 win over Montreal.
However, some of the excuse making and spin doctoring that gets made for Gostisbehere -- mind you, never by the player himself -- is over-the-top. The bottom line with "Ghost" is that he needs to produce points with better consistency and simultaneously has to play at least adequately enough without the puck on his stick to not be a significant liability. Offensive risk-taking and turnovers are NOT why he's been sitting out, nor is there any actual evidence the Flyers are trying to "coach the creativity out of him."
The reality: Gostisbehere has regressed, significantly, in his play whenever the opposition gets the puck over the Philadelphia blue line on his side. He's not being punished for anything that's beyond his control. The issues that got him benched have to do with all the one-on-one battles he loses both of the body/stick positioning variety and the muscle variety. He gets knocked off pucks too easily. He gets beaten outside right around ineffectual stick checking. To the inside, he's had fits trying to keep attackers from getting advantageous shooting and passing lanes.
All of these things are vital to anyone playing defense in the NHL. These were the things that the Flyers sent him down the Phantoms -- despite some offensive fireworks during the 2015 preseason -- to work on last season. He really did make significant progress apart from the points he was putting up, but there's been a major backslide this year. His puck possession metrics are irrelevant in this context, because the issue isn't really one of how much the Flyers do/ do not have the puck with him on or off the ice, but in what he does specifically in the situations where the team does NOT have the puck.
As for point production, it doesn't have to be at his rookie year clip. Year-to-year fluctuations are normal and expected, especially in light of the league now having extensive pre-scouts on him. However, Gostisbehere is first and foremost an offensive defenseman and the standards for that are much more bottom line -- goals and assists -- than they are for guys designated more as puck movers. Yes, the two roles often overlap to a significant degree for guys with Gostisbehere's skill set as both a speedster as well someone with an explosive point shot. For Gostisbehere's role on the team, though, points are rightfully the bottom line over larger sample sizes of games.
Also, much of it is situational. While Gostisbehere's volume of missed shots -- including a larger-than-typical number of shots that ring off the goal post and stay out -- is only somewhat higher than last year, he is situationally missing the net on key looks more often than a year ago. That shows up also in reduced assists (fewer rebound put-in chances, and friendly caroms) as in shooting percentage which only measures the shots that go in or the goalie saves.
In the longer term, the shooting is the most correctable area. Also, in most games, it really hasn't been excessive up-ice risk taking that has been a huge issue with Gostisbehere. The concern is about play without the puck.
Are multiple scratchings a solution? Not if he's expected to play as important of a role as he did last year. There are any number of steps that could have been taken that were less drastic -- such as having him at least temporarily switch to left defense to simplify some of the common own zone challenges for a lefthanded shooter while he's trying to regain some of the instinctual aspects of the game that have been misplaced. Dave Hakstol downplays the notion of lost confidence, but Gostisbehere seems to have wheels turning in his head whenever the puck in the defensive zone on his side.
In the offensive zone, Gostisbehere tends to move over the middle quite a bit anyway. He ostensibly plays left point on the Flyers umbrella setup, with Jakub Voracek sliding down from the right point to the right half boards and circle once Philly gets set up. It is a more advantageous shooting angle when Gostisbehere plays right point but the flip side is that the keeps on loose pucks are a little tougher with his stick on the opposite side and it's also easier for an opponent to chip off the boards past him. Really, a temporary side switch would be with one with defense in mind rather than shooting because he is capable of making things happen with the puck starting out from either side.
When a player of Gostisbehere's offensive capabilities is struggling -- and has shown in the past that he can at least be adequate defensively -- and the team is also struggling to score, the decision to scratch him three straight games become hard to justify. Try some different looks for him, even if a side switch or another partner switch is no a magical elixir. Scratch him for one game. But three? No way. The only worse thing I could think of would be the try what some fans have suggested and try to make him into a forward. A position change like that mid-season is even more of a panic move that has more severely messed up more players than it has ever helped.
Ultimately, the Flyers need Gostisbehere playing, and playing well, if they are going to get into the playoffs this season. He has to help himself out here, because he's been his own worst enemy, but Hakstol's handling of him in recent weeks hasn't exactly been stellar, either. The head coach says that frustration is not part of his coaching vocabulary nor does he want it to be a trait of his team.
That's fine in theory. But when Gostisbehere sits out three in a row even as he is supposed to be part of the solution then it's hard to interpret it as anything other than a frustrated coach getting impatient on continuing to wait for the second-year player to "play through" his issues. Saying that he's dressing the players who he thinks give the team the best chance to win that given night (i.e., holding the score down) is very telling even as he tries to balance it off by saying that Gostisbehere -- and rookie Travis Konecny before last night's injury -- are important parts of the team both now and moving forward.
With that said, it would be a big surprise if Gostisbehere is not back in the lineup against the Islanders. How much leeway he gets thereafter if he continues to struggle remains to be seen.
3) In an upcoming Meltzer's Musings blog, I will look in depth at Claude Giroux's season. For now, I will put forth an anecdotal observation that I don't think he has skated very well all season -- going all the way back to getting hurt at the World Cup of Hockey. That burst of speed and separation that was a big part of his game has rarely been there this season, and I think that has been a big piece of his five-on-five struggles.
Add in the Flyers' too-frequent struggles on breakouts or potential transition plays. Far too often, it takes two or three attempts just to chip out, by which time a line change is needed (and can also affect how the next line starts out its shift).
Ultimately, though, for the Flyers to go anywhere, their best players NEED to be their best players. As stated earlier, that has to start with Giroux and Voracek as long as they are the guys expected to be the primary catalysts.
4) As often discussed this season, the Flyers goaltending has subpar in stretches, but also solid in stretches. The goalie play has been fine overall the last few weeks, both with Michal Neuvirth and Steve Mason. Right now, Neuvirth has been getting a run of starts and playing well. There should, however, be no real complaints with either goalie's play of late.
No goalie was going to have anything other than a very ugly stat line from that Carolina debacle and last night's game against St. Louis was one where Neuvirth's save percentage for the night came down to a vicious deflection and whether or not he stopped a third-period breakaway after seeing few pucks all night. I don't care who is goal; it's a tough way to play when there's no margin for error.
As for any rumors involving the Flyers acquiring Ben Bishop -- and expending assets to do so while not addressing the much bigger issues of a so-so blueline overall and insufficient scoring depth in the current group -- they can filed in the "highly unlikely" bin.
5) Just a quick note for those who feel that a coaching change right now to hire Claude Julien --- not something that has a shot at being reality, but something that's being debated on social media -- would be a panacea. The Flyers have a 67-48-21 record under Hakstol in tenure to date. Julien in the same span was 68-54-15 in Boston with a comparable or perhaps slightly better overall roster on paper.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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