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Meltzer's Musings: 6-28-10 |
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To say the least, the last few days have been extremely frustrating for the Flyers. With no first-round or second-round pick in the draft, there was a lot of time to dwell on NHL-level roster moves that the team was, at least thus far, unable to accomplish. Nevertheless, the real crunch week of the offseason begins today and, by this weekend, we will have a much better sense of whether the club put itself in position to take the next step in 2010-11.
I would like to clarify some comments I made in Saturday's blog regarding Dan Hamhuis. I never doubted reports that Hamhuis claimed his reason for not signing with the Flyers was a concern over his on-ice role. Rather, my doubts were with Hamhuis' level of honesty in this situation. I am of the opinion that he was putting up a smokescreen because he wanted to become a free agent and preferred to seek a deal with a Western Conference club. That is certainly his prerogative. I just wish he'd been more up front about it.
First of all, as I wrote the other day, line combinations and ice time change over the course of the season (much less over the course of a multi-year contract). Come next season, if Hamhuis significantly outplayed Matt Carle or Braydon Coburn to the extent that the club would clearly be better served to have Hamhuis play with Chris Pronger or Kimmo Timonen, Peter Laviolette would not have hesitated to make the switch. Truly competitive players should welcome such competition.
Secondly, Hamhuis may not have entered the year paired with Pronger or Timonen but that would not make him the "fifth defenseman." In reality, he would have been the third or fourth defenseman, anchoring a third pairing that could actually be rolled out regularly at even strength, receiving penalty killing duties and probably seeing a little time on the secondary powerplay unit (Hamhuis will only get secondary powerplay time -- or none -- on any contending club). His role would have been to the "senior partner" of his pairing, which is a role the club thought he'd be better suited to than either Carle or Coburn.
Finally, if there was an injury elsewhere on the blueline, Hamhuis would have immediately seen his ice time go up from about 18 minutes to 20 minutes a game to heavy ice time -- especially if the injury happened in the playoffs.
From all reports, the Penguins intended to call Hamhuis' bluff today. When Ray Shero speaks with Hamhuis today, head coach Dan Bylsma will be involved in the discussion. He will tell Hamhuis that, if he signs, the defenseman will enter the season as the Penguins' designated shutdown defenseman against other clubs' top lines. He will attempt to sell him on being a key part of a young core of defensemen, and of course, on the opportunity of playing for a Stanley Cup contender.
If Hamhuis was being honest about his reasons for rejecting the Flyers' offer, he will ink a contract with Pittsburgh. The money will be there, too, given the unlikelihood that the Penguins will be able to retain Sergei Gonchar. If Hamhuis finds some other reason to become a free agent, the entire hockey world will know that he was disingenuous with the Flyers.
Either way, it's time for the Flyers to move on and find another way to strengthen their their blueline. Depending on the direction the Flyers end up going in goal -- in other words, assuming they can't come to terms with Evgeni Nabokov, don't deal for Tim Thomas or sign a free agent goalie to a big ticket deal -- I would be intrigued by the possibility of pursuing Anton Volchenkov in free agency strictly for hockey reasons.
If you are going to spend $4 million to $4.5 million on Hamhuis, you might as well see if you can land a defenseman who is arguably better than Hamhuis (although a case could be made either way) and would upgrade the group that went to the Final this past season. In that case, however, the Flyers would be back to trying make due with patchwork goaltending. I don't think they can afford to do that.
Unfortunately, even mid-tier veteran free agent defensemen command a premium beyond what they are worth on their own merits on the ice. That's why it is crucial for NHL teams to be able to develop defensemen from the farm system -- which is something the Flyers have not done well, especially in the last 20 years.
Are free agents such as Henrik Tallinder (who made $3.25 million last season), ex-Flyer Mark Eaton ($2 million last season) or the Flyers' own Lukas Krajicek ($1.475 million) worth paying even what they made last year? No, but that's the nature of free agency.
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The same thing goes for goaltenders. Flyers fans who are complaining about the likely price tag of Evgeni Nabokov (even on an over-35 contract) or the cost of Tim Thomas need to understand that they are paid market value for a former Vezina Trophy winner (Thomas) and multi-time All-Star (Nabokov). Complain about their age, playoff history, or whatever else you want. Those are all legitimate concerns.
But don't complain about their salary cap hits because, unless the Flyers once again try to live with bargain basement goaltending, they are going to need to devote a bigger share of their cap space to their goaltending.
Want a bargain? Then re-sign Michael Leighton or bring back Antero Niittymaki, who made $600,000 last year, and hope that he finally takes an NHL starting job and runs with it after years of excelling at other levels of hockey (international, AHL, Finnish) and teasing at the NHL level but flopping when he gets an extended opportunity to hold down the top spot. Perhaps you bring back Marty Biron ($1.4 million last season on the Island) for another go-round. Would you be happy if the Flyers went with any of those three, with Brian Boucher or Johan Backlund as the other option?
Want to a clear upgrade in goal? Then be prepared to pay for it. Once you move a step down in the NHL goaltending pecking order from the likes of Ryan Miller, Martin Brodeur or Roberto Luongo, veterans like Nabokov and Thomas are about as good as you will find on the market, and there are no bargains to be had in the mid-tier goalies who are the next half-step down.
Is Dan Ellis really a goaltender worth paying $4 million a season? He made $2 million last season in Nashville and may well be able to double that for next season after he signs somewhere in free agency (based on the assumption that he is, in fact, the most sought-after goalie on the UFA market). Chris Mason made $3 million last season in St. Louis and may make at least that much again if a team signs him during the initial free agent feeding frenzy. Hell, Vesa Toskala made $4 million last season, so why would guys like Ellis or Mason not try to price themselves in that range?
Jose Theodore will not pull down another $4.5 million contract and Marty Turco will certainly not get another $5.4 million , but they still going to require a substantial cap hit to sign if you dive in at the start of free agency. Perhaps one or the other will sit out on the market unsigned during the summer and be willing to take substantially less money (Theodore) or less money and a one-year or two-year contract (Turco). But are either of those goaltenders, or any of the mid-tier guys, going to get you successfully through four rounds of playoffs? Or do you figure you might as well spend less and hope for another Leighton/Boucher type of run come spring time?
Any way you slice it, the Flyers' decision on their next goaltender is going to involve an element of risk.
If they still somehow manage to swing a trade for a young goaltender -- LA rebuffed the Flyers' inquiries about Jon Bernier and Jonathan Quick, but players such as Cory Schneider (Vancouver) or Jhonas Enroth (Buffalo) may still be available -- then there will be the inevitable questions about lack of Stanley Cup playoff experience. If you sign Nabokov, there's the question about his past playoff performances. If you sign another free agent or trade for Thomas, there are also a host of uncertainties. It is what is is.
In terms of long-term planning in goal, it's awfully premature for the Flyers to figure either Sergei Bobrovsky or Joacim Eriksson into their NHL plans. Bobrovsky has yet to play a minute of North American hockey in the AHL, and it remains to be seen how well equipped he is to make the transition from the KHL. Eriksson had a great year at the Allsvenskan level in Sweden after a strong junior career but has yet to prove he's an Elitserien starter much less a future NHL starter.
Give Bobrovsky a full year in the AHL, and Eriksson a minimum of two more seasons (one Elitserien, one AHL) and you will have a little clearer picture on whether either goalie may be ready to be the Flyers' starter by the 2012-13 season. But even that is a best-case scenario that assumes neither player hits a major snag along the way. For now, the Flyers have to go ahead planning to have a proven veteran starter for the foreseeable future.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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