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Flyers Playoff Gameday: ECQF Game 3 vs. WSH |
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GAME 3 PREVIEW: FLYERS VS. CAPITALS
Hoping that home-ice success over the last two regular seasons carries over to the 2016 playoffs, Dave Hakstol's Philadelphia Flyers need a victory over Barry Trotz's Washington Capitals on Monday to start climbing into their Eastern Conference Quarterfinal series. Game time at the Well Fargo Center is 7 p.m. EDT. The game will be televised on CSN Philadelphia.
After getting shut out, 2-0, in Game One last Thursday, the Flyers suffered a 4-1 setback in Game 2.
In both games, Philadelphia played a dominant first period but could not solve Capitals goaltender Braden Holtby. In both games, the Capitals' power play carved up the Philadelphia penalty kill -- with the difference being that Washington went 2-for-2 in Game 2 after Philadelphia goaltender Steve Mason stood on his head in Game 1. In both games, the Flyers were unable to convert any of their own power play chances (including a lengthy 5-on-3 advantage in Game 2).
On a more positive note, the Flyers played pretty well at 5-on-5 in both games, at least until trailing in the third period and leaving themselves open to counterattacks late in the game.
With the score 1-0 Capitals early in the second period -- very shortly after making a spectacular save on Washington defenseman John Carlson -- Mason allowed a 101-foot goal through the five-hole on a Jason Chimera dump in that the goaltender mistimed in trying to knock to the corner rather than simply putting the paddle of his stick down on the ice in front of him.
Mason had no chance on the first or third Washington goals. On the first goal, a 5-on-4 penalty kill momentarily turned into a 5-on-2 when, after a botched stick exchange from forward Chris VandeVelde to defenseman Nick Schultz, Carlson scored through a heavy screen in front by Marcus Johansson while VandeVelde and Schultz were making a second effort on a stick exchange and all sorts of lanes were open to the Caps.
The Capitals' third goal came as a result of half of the ice being left open on a coverage overload to one side and Nicklas Bäckström threading the needle for a scorching and perfectly placed one-timer by Alex Ovechkin. No goaltender in the world was going to stop that one.
Washington's final goal was a Bäckström high short-side goal from the right circle -- very similar to two previous goals against the Flyers this season -- on a late third period counterattacking rush. It was a nice shot but not unstoppable for Mason. By that point, though, the game had already been decided and the only real mystery left was whether Washington would get a fourth goal via empty netter. Instead, they got it at 5-on-5.
Philadelphia's lone goal of Game 2, and the series to date, was an opportunistic Jakub Voracek goal off a broken rush with Brayden Schenn running a little interference for him. Voracek moved left on Holtby and slid the puck through the goaltender along the ice. The goal temporarily cut the Flyers' deficit to 2-1 until the Ovechkin power play goal. Holtby finished with 41 saves.
Flyers Outlook
The Flyers made some lineup and power play strategy adjustments in Game Two. With Sean Couturier (left shoulder) lost for the series, Scott Laughton entered the lineup. Nick Cousins took over Couturier's spot on the Flyers' second power play unit.
When the Flyers' first power play unit was on the ice, they tried to throw some different looks at the Capitals to get more motion and open the ice. Voracek slid down low near the right post. Schenn moved up high, and even went over to the other side of the side at times. Philly generated some good looks at the net but still could not get the desired outcome.
As brilliantly as Holtby played in both games in Washington, the defense in front of him also deserves credit. There were several loose pucks sitting on the doorstep during the game that the Flyers were unable to pump home, either because the defense got to them first or tied up a stick or blocked the potential followup.
The Flyers have gotten some good shifts out of the Cousins line during the series. Laughton came very close to scoring in Game 2. Philly still needs more in terms of building and sustaining shift-to-shift momentum. Scoring first in Game Three would be of huge help.
While the Capitals will not be intimidated at the thought of being the road team for the next two games -- a situation that would been more beneficial to Philadelphia in terms of line matching had Couturier not gone down for the series midway through the second period of Game One -- it should also be said that the Flyers have been a much, much better home than road team over the last two seasons.
Combining their 2014-15 and 2015-16 home records in the regular season, the Flyers had a 46-21-15 record (107 points). In their 82 regular season road games, they went 28-37-17 before losing the first two games in Washington in this series.
The onus is very much on the Flyers now to be perfect on home ice. They will probably have to go 3-0 at home and steal a win in Washington to win the series. Mathematically, of course, the Flyers must now win four of five to pull off the upset in the series. Never has the one-game-at-a-time cliché been more apt than it is now. The Capitals rarely beat themselves and the margin for error would been slim even with a healthy Couturier able to match up with either the Evgeny Kuznetsov or Bäckström line at Hakstol's choosing.
Basically, the Flyers have to play mistake free hockey to climb back into the series. That means the penalty killing has to get exponentially better than it was in the first two games but especially Game 2. It means Mason has to stop everything he can possibly stop. It means no undisciplined penalty. It means finding ways to disrupt Holtby and generate more rebounds, deflections and screens because, even though the shot volume was high last game, he still saw the puck most every time.
The Flyers recalled veteran forward Colin McDonald from the AHL's Lehigh Valley Phantoms on Sunday. The Phantoms, who did not qualify for the Calder Cup playoffs, wrapped up their season on Sunday evening. There has been no announcement made of Black Aces to this point. Lehigh Valley's season finished with three games in three nights, so there'd be no practical need to announce early who may practice (separately, on the Phantoms rink at the Skate Zone) on Tuesday. No Black Aces are likely to get into playoff action for the Flyers, anyway, barring a slew of injuries to the main roster.
Capitals Outlook
Other than improved first periods, there really isn't too much that Washington needs to adjust from their two home games to playing on the road. In Game 2, the Caps could have been better in the finishing department.
As the game progressed, they had about five or six odd-man rush opportunities. There were about five times where the Caps had point-blank shots that did not go in -- a couple that Mason stopped with great saves but several others were Washington hit the post or missed the net. Apart from the seed of a one-timer goal last game, Ovechkin's shooting has been mostly errant so far. He's hit two posts and missed the net by a wide margin -- with the puck then rimming out along the boards -- on a few other occasions.
Defensively, the Caps have done a good job at making the Flyers earn real estate. Trotz relies heavily on his top two defense pairings -- Nate Schmidt and Dmitry Orlov have been used sparingly in the first two games. Philly has not been able to wear down the top two pairings -- the Caps' have played from even standing or with a lead the entire series to date -- but that's something Trotz will have to monitor. However, the Chicago Blackhawks won the Stanley Cup a year ago by heavily double-shifting the top pairing and there was no discernible wear-down as series progressed.
Key team stat comparisons
Regular Season (overall NHL ranking in parenthesis)
Non-shootout goals per game: Flyers 2.57 (22nd), Capitals 3.02 2nd)
Non-shootout goals against per game: Flyers 2.59 (T-13th), Capitals 2.33 (2nd)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: Flyers 133/130, Capitals 166/128
Power play efficiency: Flyers 18.9% (T-11th), Capitals 21.9% (5th)
Penalty killing efficiency: Flyers 80.5% (T-20th), Capitals 85.2% (2nd)
Shots per game: Flyers 31.0 (5th), Capitals 30.6 (T-7th)
Shots against per game: Flyers 30.7 (23rd), Capitals 28.4 (6th)
Faceoff percentage: Flyers 51.0% (6th), Capitals 49.6% (19th)
Series to date
Goals per game: Flyers 0.50 (0,1), Capitals 3.00 (2,4)
Goals against per game: Flyers 3.00, Capitals 0.50
5-on-5 GF/GA ratio: Flyers 1/3, Capitals 3/1
Power play efficiency: Flyers 0.00% (0-for-8), 37.5% (3-for-8)
Penalty kill efficiency: Flyers 62.5% (5-for-8), 100% (8-for-8)
Shots per game: Flyers 30.5 (19,42), Capitals 27.0 (31, 23)
Shots against per game: Flyers 27.0, Capitals 30.5
Faceoff percentage: Flyers 50.4% (60-for-119), Capitals 49.6% (59-for-119)
Projected lineups (subject to change, will be updated)
Flyers
93 Jakub Voracek - 28 Claude Giroux - 17 Wayne Simmonds
12 Michael Raffl - 10 Brayden Schenn - 89 Sam Gagner
21 Scott Laughton - 52 Nick Cousins - 24 Matt Read
76 Chris VandeVelde - 78 Pierre-Édouard Bellemare - 25 Ryan White
47 Andrew MacDonald - 53 Shayne Gostisbehere
55 Nick Schultz - 32 Mark Streit
23 Brandon Manning - 3 Radko Gudas
35 Steve Mason
[30 Michal Neuvirth]
Scratches: Evgeny Medvedev (healthy), R.J. Umberger (healthy), Jordan Weal (healthy), Colin McDonald (healthy), Sean Couturier (upper body), Michael Del Zotto (wrist surgery).
Capitals
8 Alex Ovechkin - 19 Nicklas Bäckström - 77 T.J. Oshie
65 Andre Burakovsky - 92 Evgeny Kuznetsov - 14 Justin Williams
25 Jason Chimera - 10 Mike Richards - 90 Marcus Johansson
26 Daniel Winnik - 83 Jay Beagle - 43 Tom Wilson
27 Karl Alzner - 2 Matt Niskanen
44 Brooks Orpik - 74 John Carlson
9 Dmitri Orlov - 88 Nate Schmidt
70 Braden Holtby
[31 Philipp Grubauer]
Scratches: Taylor Chorney (healthy), Stanislav Galiev (healthy), Michael Latta (healthy), Mike Weber (healthy).
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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