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Flyers Playoff Gameday: ECQF Game 1 @ WSH |
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GAME 1 PREVIEW: FLYERS @ CAPITALS
Some pundits have said it would take a "monumental upset" for Dave Hakstol's Philadelphia Flyers (41-27-14, 96 points) to beat Barry Trotz's Washington Capitals (56-18-8, 120 points) in a playoff series. While Washington is decidedly -- and deservedly -- the favorite coming into the series, it wouldn't be anything close to monumental if the Flyers find a way to win four times in a best-of-seven series.
When Team USA beat Russia and then went on to win the gold medal in Lake Placid in 1980, that was a monumental upset. An NHL upset that was monumental was in 1994 when an 82-point San Jose Sharks of 1993-94 with an aging Sergei Makharov and Igor Larionov supported by Todd Elik, Pat Falloon, Sandis Ozolinsh and goalie Arturs Irbe knocked off Scotty Bowman's top-seeded Detroit Red Wings (Steve Yzerman and Sergei Fedorov in their primes, fast-rising star Nicklas Lidström, Slava Kozlov, Keith Primeau, Dino Ciccarelli, an aging Mark Howe, Ray Sheppard, Steve Chiasson, Bob Probert, Vladimir Konstantinov, a young Darren McCarty and a teenaged Martin Lapointe).
If the 2015-16 Flyers beat the Capitals, it would simply be an upset; nothing close to an all-timer. While the Capitals ran away with the Metropolitan Division and clinched the President's Trophy (NHL's best regular-season record) weeks ago. They did so because, unlike all of the other 29 teams in the NHL, Washington never hit a prolonged slump. The Caps were remarkably consistent.
In recent months, however, there really hasn't been that huge of a gap. Since the calendar flipped to 2016, the Flyers have been neck-and-neck with the Capitals. Entering their Jan. 5 game at home against the Montreal Canadiens, the Flyers had a record of 15-15-7. Since that time, they've gone 26-12-7. At the same point in the season, the Capitals were already 29-7-3. Their record thereafter was 27-11-5.
The season series between Philadelphia and the Caps saw the teams split four games, with three of the games going down to the wire and two going past regulation.
On Nov. 12, Washington pull away from the Flyers in the final 30 minutes of a 5-2 blowout at the Wells Fargo Center. The Flyers downed the Caps team in overtime, 4-3, at the Verizon Center on Jan. 27 (final game before the All-Star break). Two closely spaced late second period goals and a third-period end-to-end rush by defenseman Matt Niskanen lifted the Caps to a 3-2 home win on Feb. 7. In the season series finale in Philly, a high-energy performance by the entire team and outstanding goaltending by Steve Mason enabled a 2-1 shootout win in a game that was scoreless for two periods.
Game time on Thursday is 7 p.m. EDT. The game will be televised on NBC Sports Network.
Flyers Outlook
Over the last two season, the Flyers have posted a combined 107 points in home-ice games; including 54 points in 2015-16. The reason why they missed the playoffs in 2014-15 was an abysmal road record (10-20-11). This year, Philly improved enough on the road -- especially in the second half of the season -- to pull their final mark to 18-17-6. That was just enough of a jump to squeak into the postseason.
In order to beat the Capitals, Philadelphia has to play a simple and relatively clean game. They have to avoid gifted turnovers because the Caps can force plenty on their own. They have to put shots on the net with traffic in front for screens, deflections and rebounds. They have to give Mason a reasonable chance to make saves (which they did not do in the Nov. 12 game). Lastly, the Flyers must continue to stay out of the box by minimizing careless penalties; something they did much better down the stretch drive.
While every team wants to play from ahead, if the Flyers do find themselves trailing, they have to keep deficits manageable. Early-period and end-of-period goals and the shift or two after a goal is scored are crucial any time of the season but especially in the playoffs. Washington is a club that can generate momentum in a hurry, so the Flyers can't afford letdowns at such crucial junctures. Attention to detail is paramount: good clears, clean line changes, crisp breakouts, and players being mindful of support on the walls and off the draws are what keep dangerous teams at bay and enable atttacking opportunities of your own.
Much of it comes down to communication. The buildings are going to be louder than usual, both in DC and Philly. Mason noted on Tuesday that early and audible communication, such as who takes the puck on a dump-in, will make a huge difference between keeping things under control and routine situations suddenly turning dangerous.
Trotz may want to get his top line to go head-to-head with Claude Giroux's unit. In Washington, without the benefit of the last line change, the Flyers cannot pick and choose when they can get Sean Couturier out there. Ultimately, though, the Caps are a very deep team so the Flyers cannot get too caught up in line matchups even when they do get the last change come Game 3. They'll have a better sense of adjustments once they see what is and isn't working.
Attrition is almost inevitable in any playoff series. The Flyers enter the playoffs relatively healthy.
Defenseman Michael Del Zotto, who suffered torn ligaments in his left wrist on February 13, is out for the rest of the season. The Flyers would have to go deep into the playoffs before a return could be feasible.
Rookie defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere is going to have a target on his back in this series. The Capitals bigger players are going to try to hit him at every opportunity, and they will try to minimize his time and space to make plays.
When Philly is on the power play, the Caps are going to put their emphasis on challenging the left side (Claude Giroux's side), the left-to-center point (Gostisbehere) and the left hash marks to middle slot (Brayden Schenn). They will concede a pass to Wayne Simmonds to the left side of the goal line where he attempts to swing across to his right. The bigger concern with Simmonds is when he's directly netfront.
They will also concede one-timers to the right side, as Jakub Voracek (who only scored one power play goal all season) has had issues both with missing the net and with putting shots right into the goaltender; when he presses, Voracek has a tendency to shovel the puck rather than shoot it. On the other hand, Voracek is one of the NHL's top playmaking wingers and when he does score on his own, it's often when he gets the D to commit early and then moves to a higher-percentage area for himself.
If the Flyers can work some more plays from the right side and if Voracek can get his power play shooting form of 2013-14 and 2014-15 back when Giroux or Gostisbehere (who often thinks shoot first) funnel pucks his way, Philly's power play could foil the Washington pre-scout.
Capitals Outlook
These are no longer the offensively deadly one-dimensional Caps teams of the Bruce Boudreau run-and-gun era with Mike Green playing 25-plus minutes as a rover, Nicklas Bäckström threading the needle over and over and over to Alex Ovechkin and Ovechkin playing with a two-track mind (shoot as hard and soon as possible from anywhere and everywhere or, if he didn't have the puck, run around looking for a big hit).
The team now, while still extremely potent offensively and deeper throughout the lineup, plays a vastly improved two-way game. Trotz is widely regarded as one of the best coaches in the business, and he has forged a team that doesn't have to score four or five goals -- though it often still does -- to win games. Today's Capitals, with a deeper blueline and a matured Braden Holtby in net (no longer prone to letting a single mistake compound into several) backstopping them in goal, can win a 2-1 game just as readily as a 5-3 outcome.
The Capitals have a good balance on their blueline and move the puck well. Up front, Evgeny Kuznetsov is one of the NHL's most dynamic and creative young centers. He forms a deadly one-two punch with Bäckström. Ovechkin remains the NHL's deadliest pure sniper, especially from a stationary position where he can blast the puck. Players such as fast-rising Andre Burakovsky, who has burned Philly a few times this season, can attack with speed and T.J. Oshie is still a force when he gets into a one-on-one matchup with the goaltender.
In the meantime, Washington also has size and grit up front. Veteran playoff warrior and dressing room leader Justin Williams seems to crank out his best games when the stakes are high. Jason Chimera is a load to handle down low in the offensive zone. Jay Beagle brings a big frame and a heavy stick. Tom Wilson sometimes hurts his own team with awful penalties and overly aggressive play in general, but is an effective physical force when he plays under control.
Washington is a very good club through the neutral zone. They create a lot of turnovers between the bluelines and can turn defense to offense in a hurry. The Flyers have their share of defensemen who will back into the defensive zone even with decent back-pressure from the forwards and then try to keep play to the outside. The Caps have the dual ability to finesse their way inside the dots off the rush or put pucks past the defense, forecheck it back into their possession and then crash the net.
The "old" book on the Capitals was to make them face some adversity, they would get flustered
and self-destruct. With a deeper roster and an upgraded leadership group with the additions of players such Williams and Brooks Orpik and the maturation of others, the Caps seem to be a much more resilient squad. Along with Karl Alzner's pairing with Matt Niskanen, Orpik is the shutdown defender along with offensively dynamic John Carlson to form one of the most balanced top-four groupings of defensemen leaguewide.
The Capitals have lots of ways they can beat opponents but no team is infallible. Washington was below 50 percent on faceoffs this season -- an area where the Flyers have an on-paper advantage -- and every in awhile, there are players who can be goaded into reverting to forcing pucks or taking needless penalties. Lastly, as with any goalie, Holtby can only stop what he can see.
Key team stat comparisons (NHL overall ranking)
Non-shootout goals per game: Flyers 2.57 (22nd), Capitals 3.02 2nd)
Non-shootout goals against per game: Flyers 2.59 (T-13th), Capitals 2.33 (2nd)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: Flyers 133/130, Capitals 166/128
Power play efficiency: Flyers 18.9% (T-11th), Capitals 21.9% (5th)
Penalty killing efficiency: Flyers 80.5% (T-20th), Capitals 85.2% (2nd)
Shots per game: Flyers 31.0 (5th), Capitals 30.6 (T-7th)
Shots against per game: Flyers 30.7 (23rd), Capitals 28.4 (6th)
Faceoff percentage: Flyers 51.0% (6th), Capitals 49.6% (19th)
Projected lineups (subject to change, will be updated)
Flyers
93 Jakub Voracek - 28 Claude Giroux - 17 Wayne Simmonds
12 Michael Raffl - 14 Sean Couturier - 10 Brayden Schenn
24 Matt Read - 52 Nick Cousins - 89 Sam Gagner
76 Chris VandeVelde - 78 Pierre-Édouard Bellemare - 25 Ryan White
47 Andrew MacDonald - 53 Shayne Gostisbehere
55 Nick Schultz - 32 Mark Streit
23 Brandon Manning - 3 Radko Gudas
35 Steve Mason
[30 Michal Neuvirth]
Scratches: Evgeny Medvedev (healthy), R.J. Umberger (healthy), Scott Laughton (healthy), Jordan Weal (healthy), Michael Del Zotto (wrist surgery).
Capitals
8 Alex Ovechkin - 19 Nicklas Bäckström - 77 T.J. Oshie
65 Andre Burakovsky - 92 Evgeny Kuznetsov - 14 Justin Williams
25 Jason Chimera - 10 Mike Richards - 90 Marcus Johansson
26 Daniel Winnik - 83 Jay Beagle - 43 Tom Wilson
27 Karl Alzner - 2 Matt Niskanen
44 Brooks Orpik - 74 John Carlson
9 Dmitri Orlov - 88 Nate Schmidt
70 Braden Holtby
[31 Philipp Grubauer]
Scratches: Taylor Chorney (healthy), Stanislav Galiev (healthy), Michael Latta (healthy), Mike Weber (healthy).
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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