The Los Angeles Kings suit up for their first game of the Stanley Cup Playoffs tomorrow, facing the Edmonton Oilers for a third straight year.
Ever since the Kings were able to re-emerge out of their rebuild as a more competitive team, they've always hit a wall once they get to the playoffs, in the form of the Oilers. Los Angeles took their series against Edmonton to Game 7 in 2022, before falling in six games against the Oilers last year.
So with a third year in a row of Kings vs. Oilers to kick off the playoffs, will this time around be any different? Below, we take a look at how the teams match up.
OFFENSE
Perhaps the biggest issue the Kings have faced in the back half of the season has been a lack of offense. From January 1 onwards, Los Angeles ranked 24th in the league at goals per game.
Anze Kopitar, Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala all finished the year with 70-plus points, while Trevor Moore had a huge year, with 31 goals and 57 points. However, there was a drop-off from there in terms of reliable offense from much of the rest of the forward group.
Quinton Byfield had an outstanding start to the year, but cooled off as the season went on. Meanwhile, Arthur Kaliyev, who was expected to take a bit of a step this year, fell out of favour and then out of the lineup for much of the back half of the year, and Viktor Arvidsson missing three-quarters of the regular season didn’t help either.
The biggest disappointment though was Pierre-Luc Dubois. Acquired from Winnipeg last summer, Dubois was expected to come in and give the Kings a dominant one-two-three punch down the middle. However, it’s been a disastrous year for the center and even though he’s been a little more impactful towards the end of the season, Dubois’ lack of contribution has been a big hit to the team’s offense. While Phillip Danault continues to provide some secondary offense behind Kopitar, Dubois playing to the level he's capable of would’ve taken a bit of pressure off Danault, who’s biggest asset is his defensive reliability rather than his production.
Arvidsson has been great since his return though, which does really help the team’s chances. Los Angeles has the pieces in place to be completely fine offensively, it just hasn’t come together.
Edmonton, on the other hand, remains one of the most dynamic forward groups in the NHL.
Led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers’ top-six is going to be dangerous every single time they enter the Kings’ zone. Then with 54-goal scorer Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, along with deadline addition Adam Henrique, and it’s obvious why Edmonton finished fourth in the NHL in goals per game.
If games turn into a back-and-forth scoring battle, the Kings are unarmed to keep up.
DEFENSE
Despite the Kings’ turbulent year, one thing that's remained consistent was their defensive structure. Los Angeles finished the year with the third-fewest goals allowed, and fifth-fewest expected goals against per game (according to NaturalStatTrick.com).
The addition of Vladislav Gavrikov before last year's posteason was a big win, and between Mikey Anderson/Drew Doughty on the top pair, and Gavrikov with Matt Roy, we can expect the Kings to heavily ride what’s become a very strong top-four group. That’s not to mention that Los Angeles benefits from a great group of defensively-responsible forwards with the likes of Kopitar, Danault, Byfield, Moore and others, leaving the Kings with a great shot to shut down offense.
For the Oilers, they’ll heavily rely on their top pairing of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard. While Ekholm and Bouchard have been excellent with a combined plus-78 rating to show for, the Oilers’ defense does see a steep drop-off after their big pair.
Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci can be inconsistent at times, and Brett Kulak and Vincent Desharnais won’t be used a ton. So while the Oilers may have the single best pairing of the two teams, the Kings still have the edge when it comes to their defense as a whole.
GOALTENDING
It’s a little difficult to really assess the goaltending battle between the teams.
Cam Talbot had an excellent start to the year, resulting in an NHL All-Star Game appearance, but we saw his play decline a bit as the season went on (even if it was a strong year overall). David Rittich did emerge after Pheonix Copley’s injury though and ended up putting together a surprisingly great run with Los Angeles, posting a .921 save percentage across 24 games. So between Talbot and Rittich, the Kings have options.
Edmonton, on the other hand, saw a disastrous stretch of goaltending to begin the year, with Jack Campbell ultimately waived and sent down to the AHL. However, Stuart Skinner has been able to stabilize the Oilers’ crease. His .905 save percentage is nothing elite, but across 59 games behind a team that’s not necessarily known for a defensive structure, Skinner has been as good as the team has needed him to be.
The easiest conclusion to draw is that there’s not necessarily a clear, definitive edge between the teams in net. That said, as always, it’s still an area that can make or break the series.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The special teams battle actually ends up looking somewhat even overall. Edmonton’s power play is always dangerous, ranking fourth in the NHL, and it was a killer for the Kings at times in last year’s series. However, the Kings’ penalty kill has also been one of their biggest strengths this season, operating around 85 percent and ranking second in the NHL.
On the flip side, the Kings’ power play ranks 12th in the NHL, but the Oilers’ penalty kill is also a step down, ranking 15th in the league. So there’s not necessarily a huge mismatch, but given the strength of the Oilers’ power play, the Kings need to stay out of the box as much as possible.
Comparing the rosters on paper, you could argue the teams should be in for another exciting series. What’s concerning though is that if each team’s season trajectory continues into the playoffs, things don’t look good for Los Angeles.
After an excellent start to the year, the Kings completely fell off and have never fully gotten back on track since, with inconsistent stretches. The Oilers, on the other hand, got off to a terrible start, but have been able to recover as the season went on. Both teams fired their coach, and while you can debate whether either was warranted at the time, Edmonton is the team with more momentum coming into the postseason.
Los Angeles needs to sort out their lack of scoring, but we can’t expect a full 180 in the playoffs. For the Kings to win, they need to be locked down defensively to limit chances for what’s a very scary Oilers offense, and need some great goaltending.
Edmonton’s the favourite, but these teams still finished the year only five points apart. If the Kings are at their best, they still have a shot to break their playoff curse against the Oilers.
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