Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 

Analyzing the Erik Karlsson trade

August 14, 2023, 11:37 PM ET [17 Comments]
Ben Shelley
San Jose Sharks Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Follow me on Twitter: @Hockey_Comps
Follow HockeyBuzz Sharks Twitter: @HB_Sharks


The San Jose Sharks finally pulled the trigger on a trade involving star defenseman Erik Kalrsson last weekend, sending him to the Pittsburgh Penguins in a three-team deal.

The Sharks also sent Pittsburgh a 2026 third-round pick in the trade, along with forward Dillon Hamaliuk. In exchange, the Sharks received a 2024 first-round pick, forwards Mikael Granlund and Mike Hoffman, and defenseman Jan Rutta.

As the third team in the trade, the Montreal Canadiens re-acquired Jeff Petry and also received Casey DeSmith, a 2025 second-round pick, and defenseman Nathan Legare.

The trade was a long time coming, after a summer of anticipation regarding the defenseman’s status. The Karlsson trade really wasn’t an ‘if’, but instead a ‘when'.



Pittsburgh always seemed to be the frontrunner, but the biggest question was what the Sharks could actually get back. While Karlsson was coming off a massive season where he won a Norris Trophy and put up numbers rarely seen by a defenseman, there were certainly concerns for any team looking to acquire him.

Karlsson dealt with some injury-plagued seasons beforehand, and had hit a steep decline as of the shortened 2021 season. At 33 years old and with four more years remaining on a contract with an $11.5 million cap hit, even if a team was interested, it wasn’t going to be easy to make all the moving pieces work.

At the end of the day, the Sharks ended up taking back a few contracts, and retaining a bit of money. But as for the retention itself, $1.5 million really wasn’t that bad. With the cap likely to rise and the Sharks not in a position to compete anytime soon anyways, it’s a win that they didn’t need to take on more. The benefit to taking back contracts instead is that all of Granlund, Hoffman and Rutta will be off the books in the next two years, giving the Sharks flexibility earlier.

Mikael Granlund has two years remaining on his deal at $5 million, and can still provide some secondary scoring. He’s also only a year removed from scoring 64 points in the 2021-22 season, and does help the Sharks’ thin forward group. Mike Hoffman has a single year remaining on his deal, and is in a similar situation. While he won’t be a long-term fit and his game isn't overly well-rounded, he can provide some scoring help. Jan Rutta is interesting as well. San Jose’s blue line will be one of the worst in the league coming into the season, and the two-time Stanley Cup champion can help to stabilize the right side in Karlsson’s absence.

Obviously, the first-round pick is the main piece coming back for the Sharks. It’s top-10 protected, but in a competitive Eastern Conference, there’s no guarantee the Penguins even reach the playoffs, let alone make a deep run. There’s a decent chance the pick ends up somewhere between No. 11 and 20 next year, which would probably be the ideal situation for San Jose. The Sharks did give up a third-round pick in the process, but the first-round pick remains the possible game-changer.

For the Sharks, this is pretty clearly just a cap-clearing move, with a first-round pick coming back as well. Obviously, they didn’t get anywhere near as much for Karlsson as other defensemen of his caliber would command, but there was a lot working against them. There’s still reason for concern with Karlsson’s ability to stay healthy, and if he can’t replicate his success, getting out from the contract now will look like a clear win for the Sharks down the road.

At the end of the day, the Sharks needed to move on from Karlsson and his contract left them without much leverage, despite his huge year. So few teams would be able to make a deal work that they couldn’t command much from those who were interested in the blue liner. More than anything, the Sharks bought some cap flexibility for a couple years down the road and accumulating picks remains the most important priority for the long-term future of the team.

Again, there may be some reason for concern in Mike Grier's ability to legitimately win a trade. So far, it seems like the direction and vision of his moves often makes sense, but the actual result can sometimes lack a little. While the return was underwhelming though, it was always unrealistic that they were going to get a massive haul for Karlsson and the deal was still a better play than holding onto the defenseman.

Karlsson is entering his mid-30s and still has a lot of term on his contract. The Sharks won't be competitive in the near future, and getting what they could for a player with a full no-move clause in a 'now or never' type situation for a trade remains the right call.

It’s far from a great return, but continuing to dismantle the current core and looking towards the future was the best move for San Jose. In moving Karlsson, they get a good pick and will gain cap flexibility a couple years early, in order to help speed up the rebuild in a time where Karlsson's age could make him a candidate for a decline in Pittsburgh.

QuizMaker
Join the Discussion: » 17 Comments » Post New Comment
More from Ben Shelley
» David Quinn fired as Sharks head coach
» Sharks trade Tomas Hertl to Vegas, send Kaapo Kahkonen to Devils
» Sharks trade Anthony Duclair to Lightning
» Sharks’ trade candidates unlikely to bring back big returns
» Sharks' brief win streak ends in shutout loss to Golden Knights