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Many have expressed disappointment with Marcus Johansson's play thus far but, as I said about Sami Vatanen, I think the criticism has largely been unwarranted.
Johansson's most common linemate at even-strength has been Travis Zajac, who has recorded five 5v5 points in 31 games and is averaging a disastrous .78 points per 60 in that game state.
Despite spending ~71% of his time with Zajac, and at times being used in a defensive role, Johansson has managed to produce 5v5 points at a higher clip than in any season since the lockout.
If he has been productive at 5v5, why are his points per game numbers down so much? That's a great question, I'm glad you asked.
There are a few things going on here:
1) The Devils are shooting 6.32% in all situations with Johansson on the ice, which is by far the lowest of his career. In only one other season – his rookie year – did that number dip below 10% and it was still a solid 9.59%. On average, his on-ice shooting percentage has come in at ~10.4%.
Admittedly, New Jersey doesn't have the kind of shooting talent some of those Washington teams did but I have a hard time believing opposing goaltenders will continue to post a .937 save percentage with Johansson on the ice. That is an absurd number – especially when you consider power play numbers are factored in here.
His on-ice shooting percentage is due for some positive regression. When that happens, his name should start to come up on the scoresheet with more frequency.
2) Johansson is averaging just 2.13 points per 60 on the man advantage, which is barely higher than his points/60 at even-strength. Part of that is percentage driven – as I mentioned above, the Devils have suffered from poor shooting luck with Johansson on the ice.
Another part of that is simply who he has played with. I think most would agree Taylor Hall and Kyle Palmieri are the two best, and most dangerous, power play guys on the roster. They were very productive a year ago and even more so this season.
Johansson has spent ~27% of his power play time on the same unit as Palmieri and 12% with Hall.
He hasn't had the luxury of playing with the team's top players. He has largely had to carry his own unit with moving parts like Drew Stafford, Pavel Zacha, and Miles Wood rotating in and, naturally, that's made it more difficult to produce.
The numbers should still improve moving forward but, obviously, not to the level we saw when he was playing with the likes of Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin in Washington.
In short, Johansson has done well to produce at the clip he has at 5v5. He just hasn't had any luck this season, in terms of injuries or percentages, and that's hurt his overall numbers.
When he gets back in the lineup, and his on-ice shooting percentage starts to normalize, I think we'll see an uptick in production and all of these concerns drift away.
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