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The New Jersey Devils will be looking to build on their strong 5-1-0 start tonight when they take on the Senators in Ottawa.
The Senators were a playoff team a year ago and started the season 3-0-2 without their best player Erik Karlsson, who has since returned, but they don't look to be as good as their record suggests.
At 5v5, where most of each game is played, Ottawa has allowed more shot attempts per 60 than every team in the NHL and they're also bottom-10 in suppressing chances. It's not as if they've made up for it with a dangerous offense, either, as the Sens are 26th in generating attempts and 30th in generating chances.
This is certainly a winnable game.
Here are the projected lineups:
New Jersey
Taylor Hall - Nico Hischier - Drew Stafford
Marcus Johansson - Adam Henrique - Kyle Palmieri
Jesper Bratt - Pavel Zacha - Jimmy Hayes
Miles Wood - Blake Coleman - Brian Gibbons
Andy Greene - Damon Severson
John Moore - Steve Santini
Will Butcher - Mirco Mueller
Cory Schneider
Ottawa (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Bobby Ryan - Derick Brassard - Mark Stone
Zack Smith - Kyle Turris - Ryan Dzingel
Tom Pyatt - J.G. Pageau - Mike Hoffman
Nate Thompson - Logan Brown - Alex Burrows
Dion Phaneuf - Erik Karlsson
Johnny Oduya - Cody Ceci
Frederik Claesson - Chris Wideman
Craig Anderson
Five things to watch:
1) The Senators have struggled to create chances at 5v5 while the Devils have struggled to prevent them as they rank 31st in Expected Goals Against/60 during that game state. Which team will buck the trend in this one?
2) Discipline will be key for the Devils as a) they take way too many penalties to begin with; b) they'll have to stop Karlsson every time they take one and; c) the Senators have a league-leading +12 penalty differential at 5v5. Ottawa doesn't take many minors, clearly, so the Devils will be in trouble if they do.
3) The Senators are controlling just 40% of the shot attempts and *less* than 40% of the scoring chances with Ceci on the ice at 5v5. He'll likely be matched up against one of New Jersey's top two scoring lines and they should be able to take advantage.
4) Hoffman may not be on a top scoring line, but he leads the Sens in 5v5 shot attempts, 5v5 chances, and 5v5 high-danger chances. He's the guy the Devils really need to be worried about.
5) After another strong showing, Hischier now sits 22nd in the NHL in scoring chances/60 at 5v5. He may not have scored yet, but it's certainly not because he's not generating good looks. They'll start to go soon -- perhaps even tonight.
Puck drop is just after 7:30 p.m. Eastern and can be seen on TSN5, RDS, and MSG+.
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