The last few years many fans have complained about the Hurricanes first ten games or so. The Hurricanes tend to have to wait a long period to get any home games in October and are often gone on the road for over two weeks in a row.

While a change in schedule may not have helped them performance wise, I do think there is validity that it hurts the ability to get the community interested in the Hurricanes. Last year, the Hurricanes played their first home game on October 28th, almost three weeks after the start of the NHL season.

I’d challenge you to find many casual fans in any sport that will be interested in a professional team after there were zero home games within the first three weeks of the season starting. Regardless, the point stands that since re-alignment in 2013-14, the Hurricanes tend to not have a favorable schedule early.

As we wait for the Hurricanes season opener against the Wild on Saturday, I thought it would be a good time to look at October and discuss the impact of needing a strong start early. The past four seasons early performances have plagued the Hurricanes – let’s take a look:

In 2013-14 they started 4-3-3 and has been their best start in the first ten games over the last four seasons. Not surprisingly, this also was the last time that the Hurricanes did not and was the last time they didn’t have an early western Canada road-trip in the first ten games.

Looking at their first quarter split, they were 8-8-4 which tied last season’s results. The biggest difference looking at this season in comparison to the other three is that there were only eight away games in the first 20. Also, the Hurricanes had five of their first seven at home.

In 2014-15 the early western Canada trips began, and the Hurricanes started 2-6-2. They had two home games in October and didn’t return home after October 14th until November 1st. Throughout the first quarter, 12 of the 20 were on the road. Their record was 6-11-3 going into the second quarter of play that season.

In 2015-16 the schedule looked relatively the same with eight of the first ten on the road and a 4-6-0 start. They had two home games and weren’t home after October 13th to October 30th. At least the split was even after the first quarter for home/away games. They compiled a 7-10-3 record and barely did better than in 2014-15.

Not surprisingly the 2016-17 season looked very similar schedule-wise. The Hurricanes started the season with a 6-game road trip and were 1-3-2 before they played their first home game on October 28th. Despite this, they were able to pull together a 3-4-3 record in the first ten and an 8-8-4 record in the first quarter.

While the past road trips and lack of October games have been an issue in the past, this year is different as the Hurricanes have five home games in October – to put this in perspective, they had seven total home games in October in the past three seasons.

Despite a more balanced schedule and more early home games, I think this year is actually the toughest first ten games in any of the above seasons. Looking at the list of opponents should bring caution to the off-season optimism and might not bring the start many have anticipated.

Seven of the first ten games are against teams who made the playoffs last year (Min, Clb, @Edm, @Cgy, @Tor, Stl, and Ana). The other three are home against Tampa, at Dallas, and at Winnipeg – of those three, two are very tough opponents as Tampa missed the playoffs by one point and Dallas improved significantly (IE: Radulov and Bishop)and was destroyed by injuries last year. Winnipeg isn't bad either, as they finished 9th in the West.

The other component that worries me about this schedule and stands out is that there is only one game against a metro division opponent in it. Looking at the previous four seasons, the first 14 games have had between four to six metro games (2015-16 was an outlier with two in 14 games). Going a step further, only five of the first 20 are against a Metro opponent. Finally, the last 42 games contain 17 against Metro opponents.

Why am I so obsessed with how the breakdown of Metro opponents relates to their first ten games, the first quarter as a whole, and to the season overall?

Well, the Hurricanes have consistently performed poorly against Metro division opponents. Last year they were 11-15-4 compared to 13-5-6 against Atlantic competition. If the Metro continues to be the toughest division in hockey (there’s no reason to expect it won’t be this year again), then with a backload of Metro games it could mean that getting points later in the season could become tougher.

Thus, getting points early against non-Metro teams is essential for their success later in the season – so, connect the dots for how important the first quarter is beyond the obvious reasons for a strong start.

Granted, a hot start never guarantees a playoff season (IE Flyers last year), but given the history of slow starts and their past struggles against the Metro, it does seem critical this season for a chance of success.

Bottom line – I don’t care how the Hurricanes do it, but they need to find a way to snap the four-year streak of sub .500 starts and win at least ten games in their first quarter. Anything less will most likely bring a season of disappointment.

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