TORONTO (July 18) -- During the first week of my summer vacation, I have received a number of e-mails asking whether or not the Maple Leafs will be a playoff team in the Eastern Conference next season. It's a question that nobody can truly answer because positioning in the NHL is largely dependent on man-games lost to injury. Which has been a real sore spot for the Leafs the past three years. On paper, the club would appear to be improved with the additions of goalie Vesa Toskala and winger Jason Blake. But, the fortunes of hockey teams rest with circumstances that are virtually impossible to envision... injuries chief among them. Other, less complicated factors are equally as vital, and unpredictable. Like a front-line player having a sub-par season, or a foot soldier stepping forward unexpectedly and over-achieving. Goaltending is clearly an essential element; no team has a chance to succeed if puck-stopping is not spectacular at times, and better-than average ALL the time. But, goaltending isn't enough, by itself. And that's where I sense the Leafs are still lacking.
Though several teams have recently proven to be one-year wonders, legitimate Stanley Cup emergence is best achieved by a defensive posture that is not solely contingent on netminding. The great New Jersey and Detroit clubs of the past 10 to 12 years immediately come to mind, as does the defending champion in Anaheim. Very rarely in the decades since their last Cup victory have the Leafs been a good defensive team. In the late-'70s -- during parts of two seasons with coach Roger Neilson -- the club excelled in its end of the ice, but it lacked snipers, and could not compete with the Montreal dynasty of the same era. The Pat Burns/Doug Gilmour Leafs of the early-'90s had solid goaltending with Felix Potvin, and a team-wide committment to defense that allowed it, temporarily, to overachieve. The Pat Quinn/Curtis Joseph Maple Leafs of the late-'90s were creative and difficult to play against at times, but were far-too dependent on goaltending. Cujo had to practically stand on his head -- something he did with alarming regularity. But, as soon as he became weary in the playoffs, the team collapsed around him. Same thing with Ed Belfour for a couple of years after Joseph.
Almost never, since 1967, has Toronto iced a club that is truly proficient defensively. And, I'm not just referring to those who play the defence position. The ability to thwart opposition scorers involves a coordinated mindset that becomes second-nature, and includes every player on the ice. Nothing in the game is more difficult to achieve, or to sustain. A coach that can develop such a posture will be working deep into springtime most years. It is the veritable equivalent of the chain-link fence. If one link in the chain fails, the entire structure is compromised. And more than one link has failed for the Maple Leafs in the vast majority of seasons since the Summer of Love. It remains the prime threat to any success the 2007-08 Leafs might realize.
When you think of the Leafs' best players right now, team defence is not the forte that springs to mind. On the blueline, Bryan McCabe, Tomas Kaberle, Pavel Kubina, Ian White and Carlo Colaiacovo can all handle the puck, but none are particularly threatening to opposition forwards. Hal Gill is the club's most noticable defensive rearguard, and one of the few players that exceeded his perceived limits last season. But, Gill is also slow and generally awkward, and is not accompanied by a reasonable facsimile. Up front, Mats Sundin is a decent two-way performer, but overwhelmingly regarded for his talent and recent bull-headedness on the attack. Kyle Wellwood is similarly equipped, without the physical edge. Blake has enough speed to play at both ends, but has never been confused for John Madden, Jere Lehtinen or Rod Brind'Amour. Darcy Tucker is a competitive monster, a pest, and a winger with a naturally sharp eye around the net. But, he was a disaster in even-strength situations last season. Chad Kilger uses his size effectively, though he's not considered, by any means, a front-line player. Others -- like Alexei Ponikarovsky, Nik Antropov, Matt Stajan, Alex Steen, Mark Bell, Bates Battaglia and Boyd Devereaux -- have their strengths, and could provide the Leafs with a reasonable supporting cast, if healthy. But, again, there are no Selke candidates among them.
It's the main reason why so many Toronto fans are pining for the return of Mike Peca. Until he suffered his calamitous leg injury last December, he provided the Leafs a tenacious defensive presence up front, with character and experience that contributed mightily to Edmonton's surprise Cup challenge two springs ago. It's the sort of package the Leafs have lacked in spades over the past 40 years.
Same would seem to apply at the moment. The 2007-08 Maple Leafs are not likely to develop into a defensive powerhouse. Toskala is a good bet to perform beyond the level of goaltending provided by Andrew Raycroft last season. But again -- as proven in the Cujo years -- even spectacular netminding is not sufficient in the absence of a team-wide committment and adherence to strong positional play. Blame Raycroft, if you wish, for last season's failure. But, remember, also, the many moments of absolute disarray in front of the beleaguered goalie. How the Penguins made the Leafs look sick in that 8-2 pounding in Pittsburgh, Jan. 20th. How the club could not cope defensively with either the New York Rangers or Islanders in the final week of the regular season (7-2 and 5-2 losses), with a playoff spot on the line.
Team defence is a Stanley Cup must, and it stretches far beyond the goalcrease. As we sit here today, there is nothing other than hope that suggests the '07-08 Maple Leafs will perform at an elite level without the puck.
So, in response to your e-mails, does that translate into a playoff spot next April? Perhaps. But, anything else is wishful.
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