Last time out we covered the 11-20 group of the Kings top 20 prospects. Honestly, we could have gone to 25 what with some of the names that just missed the list like Sharipzyanov, Matt Roy, and Chaz Reddekopp, but I digress.
While 11-20 was, for the most part, a fairly straight forward group to rank, numbers one through ten presented some interesting debates on various topics. Potential versus reality. Fit versus talent. Style versus style which is more valued? When taking on the task of putting together a top 20, it originally seemed like the 11-20 group would pose the biggest questions and be the most difficult to assemble. Alas, the Top 10 has been the real beast. Ask me to assemble a second top 10 in two weeks and it might vary slightly the more I sit and watch different players, ponder the outlook of their style, and value what they bring to the table for the LA Kings potentially.
Nevertheless, we did (After multiple revisions) settle on a comfortable top 10 to post. It is, if course, open for debate, and I'm sure there will be some. Let's get to the Top 10.
First though, a quick recap of the 11-20 group.
20. Zach Leslie
19. Alex Lintuniemi
18. Alex Dergachyov
17. Mikey Eyssimont
16. Jacob Moverare
15. Patrick Bjorkstrand
14. Austin Wagner
13. Justin Auger
12. Kurtis MacDermid
11. Spencer Watson
And now, 1-10!
10. Paul LaDue, 23, D
LaDue, for all intents and purposes, has been a late round score for the L.A. Kings. Drafted 181st in the 2012 6th round, LaDue has progressed exceptionally at the University of North Dakota, despite a somewhat down senior year. However, having down senior years is not all that uncommon for players who have perhaps capped out at their playing level against a certain level of competition. Look at Kevin Gravel in his last year with St. Cloud State for example. It happens, especially when the young players have played so well up to this point. With no challenge, there is little potential for growth and adjustment. LaDue suffered from this a tad last season. While statistically and scouting wise it was a year that may have signaled a few warning flags, he is still an excellent potential puck moving rear guard. In his brief time with Ontario, LaDue proved that he is incredibly capable of skating and moving the puck. While the defensive game proved to be a bit much for him at times, the overall awareness and ability he showed in transition at the pro level was promising. He should figure prominently into the Ontario rear guard next season, maybe even seeing Top-4 minutes with powerplay usage. It will be a big year for LaDue, who need to make the most of his one-year ELC. He has the skills, no doubt, but can he put it all together?
Upside: Puck-moving Top-4 Defenseman
Probability: Medium
9. Erik Cernak, 19, D
Doesn't it feel like Erik Cernak is older than 19 (Of which he just turned in May)? He is a huge, hulking mass of a player, he has played in a men's professional league in Slovakia for a few years, and now he is ready to turn pro. It is incredible how quickly some of the European players, ala Kopitar, Moverare, and Cernak are forced to mature in the pro ranks. Be that as it may, Cernak did come over to the CHL last season with Erie and had an up and down season. It was an adjustment to a different ice surface, and he had to deal with an injury absence and a World Junior absence to boot. It was kind of a difficult year for the young Dman to really get his feet under him.
Nevertheless, from a physical skillset, Cernak might be the most physically primed and ready prospect the Kings have. While the offensive game and the puck moving side of his game is the area with most question, defensively he is an incredibly intelligent player and one that gives nothing away to his opponents in terms of physicality. His skating could also improve a bit, but given how well he reads the game and how physically dominating he is, at worst Cernak has the skills to turn into a bottom pair defenseman.
Upside: Bottom-4 defensive leaning defenseman
Probability: High
8. Derek Forbort, 24, D
Leaving Forbort off of the "NHL Ready" prospects list was probably a mistake. Why? Because he really is still just a prospect. Yes the 2010 draft was a while ago, yes 24 is no spring chicken by NHL prospect standards, but just 14 games experience over half a season in the NHL is nothing. Consider this the mia culpa of our NHL ready list, because Forbort should have been included (At probably No. 3 if anyone is keeping track).
We got glimpses of what Forbort is capable of, but he never could crack the lineup in a "Kick the door in" fashion. The opportunity was there for the young defenseman at times, but he never did enough to prove better than either Jamie McBain or Luke Schenn in the eyes of the coaching staff. Be that as it may, there were a lot of positives to Forbort, and overall he plays a calm and safe game that could potentially log relatively healthy minutes in a bottom 4 capacity. While he might not put up the points, Forbort could play an almost circa 2013-14 Alec Martinez role, with around 16-17 minutes a night, some special teams play, and some points here and there. While his work is cut out for him, and this really looks like his last opportunity to solidify an NHL role, there is still hope for the former 1st rounder.
Upside: Bottom-4 two-way defenseman
Probability: High
7. Michael Mersch, 23, W
While Mersch's projection into the NHL seems like a near forgone conclusion at this point, the question is "Where?"
Is Mersch a Top 6 winger? Is he a bottom 6 winger? Bottom line? What about special teams? There are a ton of variables right now that kind of keep us from knowing just how Michael Mersch could be used. Heck, being waiver exempt next year, it's possible the Kings keep him down in Ontario a bit longer just to give other players without waiver exemption more of a look. Mersch's skating desperately needs to improve, because he has a game in the blue paint that could drive even NHL defenses and goaltenders mad. He is simple, efficient, and lethal, but we rarely got to see that in his 17-game stint due to the up-tempo pace of the NHL transition game. He vowed to work on skating this offseason and hopefully he comes into camp with more certainty in his skating legs. With all of that in mind, Mersch has a potentially wide range of upside. He could be Top-6 wing given his high rate of pro scoring, useful North-South, and pucks to net style. However he could also be a valuable Bottom-6 secondary scoring asset if the production doesn't translate, simply due to his special teams versatility and simplistic and low-risk approach to the game. Like Moverare in the bottom 11-20 group, Mersch has perhaps the biggest potential for a jump up. For now he hangs in at No. 7.
Upside: Versatile bottom-9 winger
Probability: High
6. Kale Clague, 18, D
Most of the defensemen in the Kings system are of the two-way variety, or the more defensive leaning variety. They have few real enterprising and intrepid blueliners that will control the transition game, quarterback a powerplay, and push the game in the full 200-foot sense. Clague has that ability. With a blend of speed, skill, and intelligence, Clague was a huge pick up for the Kings in the second round. Central scouting had the mobile defenseman coming in at 27th in their North America rankings, and 22nd at the midterm. Some scouts and mock drafts had him going in the mid to late first round even. The Kings somehow managed to stumble on to him at 51st overall, and are probably thanking 29 other teams for it. He is a defenseman built for the new NHL, with high speed and high skill. That is a speed and skill that the Kings were previously missing in their system with the loss of Colin Miller and Roland McKeown.
Upside: Play driving Top-4 defenseman
Potential: High
5. Jonny Brodzinski, 23, W
Does the scoring translate? That is the big question with Brodzinski. All in all, he is a player with very few, if any real glaring holes in his game. He is a good skater with excellent agility. He is intelligent on and off the puck. He has shown examples of good, solid system based play. He also started poking his way into some penalty kill situations late into last season with Ontario. Oh, and he also has an elite level shot. While 15 goals does not look that impressive on an AHL stat sheet for a season, it was his rookie season, and Brodzinski probably collected more posts shots than any other Reign player. He started to find a second gear in the latter half of the 2015-16 season, and showed glimpses of a real monster scoring threat. If there is one player primed for a breakout in 2016-17 in Ontario, it's Jonny Brodzinski. Much like Tyler Toffoli, there is a real solid nature to almost every aspect of his game, thus making his NHL potential that much better. Even if his scoring does not translate as well as you would hope, he is a smart enough player to become a secondary scoring threat and versatile middle-6 wing. If the scoring does translate though, look out.
Upside: All-around top-9 Winger
Probability: High
4. Nic Dowd, 26, C
Dowd was a catalyst for Ontario's offense last season. Without him the team would have been missing a pivotal offensive cog and leader in the dressing room. He is feisty, intelligent, creative, and a hard-worker on and off the ice. His brief NHL call-up showed us good examples of the type of game Dowd can play. He is a dogged puck pursuer, confident on the puck, and can sometimes go for the risky, creative plays that may or may not pay off. Sometimes he is punished for it, sometimes he is rewarded. However, Dowd tries to make plays that other players stray away from. With 48 points in 58 AHL games last season, it is safe to say that those plays pay off quite a bit. However, Dowd also has a very responsible, extremely discipline style of defensive hockey. He is a prototypical Los Angeles two-way center. He plays low in his zone, makes sure he is helping out his defensemen, and pushing the play in transition safely. Rarely was Dowd caught out of position or off an assignment. He gives you a lot of versatility with potential goal scoring, defensive play, faceoff ability, and leadership. There is a lot to like with Dowd, and his next step is showing he can do it at the NHL level.
Upside: Middle-6 Two-way Center
Probability: High
3. Kevin Gravel, 24, D
At times Gravel made it look too easy last season in the AHL. When he was on the puck, the game slowed down. The ever composed defenseman was a huge minute eater, a stabilizing force, and quite possibly one of Ontario's most valuable players on the season. He got his call up late in 2015-16 to the NHL, and did not look out of place with the speed or spacing of the game. We have lauded Gravel's quick thinking on the blog numerous times before, and it bears repeating. There is so little hesitation to Gravel's puck moving, which is an underrated skill at times. He makes the right decisions, and he makes them quick and expertly. He has the requisite size to play in the NHL as well, although he stated getting stronger was a goal in the offseason (What player doesn't though?). Like Dowd, the thing to do now is prove he can do it at the NHL level on a consistent basis. He is an intelligent guy, a composed player, and a workhorse. Signs point to Gravel at least being able to stabilize himself as a bottom pair presence, but NHL Top-4 is not out of the question given his skillset.
Upside: Top-4 two-way defenseman
Probability: High
2. Adrian Kempe, 19, W/C
What can you say about Adrian Kempe? There are too many adjectives to describe him. Lethal. Swashbuckling. Lightning quick. Enigmatic. All of the above apply. Kempe has tremendous skill, and when his bullish determination kicks in he is an utter treat to watch move around the ice. He can get defenders so crossed up with his speed and puck skill that it's amazing to realize he found the net just 11 times on his rookie AHL season. Therein lies the conundrum with the young Swede. He is probably the most naturally talented prospect the Kings have in their system, but his ability to take over a game on a consistent basis and cash in on all of his excellent play has yet to really break free. He shows you so many examples of an ability to do so, but came up just short on multiple occasions. But one must take a step back with Kempe and realize he is simply 19-years old. There is a lot of pressure on him as a former first-rounder, and one that is as talented as he is. Skillset wise, his blistering speed, agility, shooting, pesky mean streak, and offensive awareness are going to be sure fire NHL assets. If he can put together a 60-minute effort with perhaps a better commitment to the 200-foot game, he could be a lethal Top-6 forward with Los Angeles very soon. He is still very young though and deserves the time and patience from fans and critics alike to become that at his own pace.
Upside: Offensive Oriented Top-6 winger
Probability: Medium
1. Michael Amadio, 20, C
Ask me tomorrow who is No. 1, and I might say Kempe. Ask me in a week I might say Dowd or Gravel. However, after much internal debate, reviewing of reports and video, Michael Amadio comes away as the No. 1 prospect in the Kings system.
What pushed his No. 1 case was the showcase at the end of 2015-16 with Ontario. It was startling how comfortable the 20-year old looked at the AHL level, in a playoff scenario no less. With high intensity, everything on the line hockey being played, Amadio went from a junior league to a men's league and did not miss a beat at all. He is, much like Dowd, a heady center who plays a full 200-foot game. He also has that same sort of flare and creativity to his game that really comes out when he is working puck possession in the offensive zone or on the powerplay. Defensively he is as tight as ever also. He stays low, reads the system well, and makes smart and intelligent outlets and decisions. While his faceoff ability left a little bit to be desired in his AHL sample, faceoffs can vary wildly in smaller samples, and we did not have a big one for Amadio at the pro level. On top of his great showing with Ontario, Amadio was a monster in the OHL last year, notching 50 goals and 98 points in 68 games. Names around him in the OHL scoring race included A LOT of very highly rated, highly drafted prospects like Christian Fischer, Travis Konecny, Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Strome, And Matthew Tkachuk. Amadio was amongst the best players in the OHL.
He has few holes in his game, if any. He does pretty much everything at least to the NHL average at this point in his career and is only going to get better. While top line center seems like a bit of a lofty goal (And an unrealistic one as long as Anze Kopitar exists), there is no knowing what the next step holds for him considering his noted work ethic and the rapid ascent from 2014 to now. He has all the skills to be a legitimate Top-6 center, and all the intangibles to at worst be a great potential top-9 center in the NHL.
Upside: All-Around Top-9 Center
Probability: High
Hopefully everyone enjoyed this year's top 20. We will re-approach the list in the middle of the year to update and adjust the rankings accordingly. For a nice clean looking list without notes from 1-20, here you go!
1. Michael Amadio, C
2. Adrian Kempe, W
3. Kevin Gravel, D
4. Nic Dowd, C
5. Jonny Brodzinski, W
6. Kale Clague, D
7. Michael Mersch, W
8. Derek Forbort, D
9. Erik Cernak, D
10. Paul LaDue, D
11. Spencer Watson, W
12. Kurtis MacDermid, D
13. Justin Auger, W
14. Austin Wagner, W
15. Patrick Bjorkstrand, W
16. Jacob Moverare, D
17. Mikey Eyssimont, C
18. Alex Dergachyov, C/W
19. Alex Lintuniemi, D
20. Zac Leslie, D
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