This repeats some of what I already said in my previous blog, but after a little more time to think about it and a chance to talk to a few more die-hard Canes fans, here is a shot at sorting out our blueline.

First, let's assume that Hedican returns. Per reports, he did exercise his option and only health stands in the way of his return. Second, let's assume that Wesley gets signed. The latest report from the team is that he does want to return, and it seems likely that something will therefore get worked out. Third, let's assume that Babchuk either gets traded or just stays in Russia. I do not think this is as much of a sure thing as some people think, but right now it is the party line and probably more likely than not.

So that gives us a whopping 8 NHL-level defensemen under contract: Hedican, Commodore, Kaberle, Wallin, Gleason, Wesley, Seidenberg and Hutchinson. It leaves only Tanabe from last year's group who is an unrestricted free agent and not accounted for.

So with 8 guys signed, it is simple. Right? There is no room at the inn for Tanabe or anyone else. And there is no need to recreate the 9-10 player logjam that we had late last season. Right?

I'm not so sure.

The problem is not so much quantity but more type or arguably quality. In 2 years, Hutchinson has been unable to climb above the 'depth defenseman' role slotted for 20-30 games on the ice and many more in the press box. Same can be said of Seidenberg who has yet to win/keep a top 6 defenseman slot in tries with 3 separate teams now. I like either guy for the #7 spot, and since we have no NHL-ready depth at the AHL level, I guess you could argue that we unfortunately need to carry 2 depth type players at the NHL level.

Then there are the old war horses. I especially like Wesley. For those that get distracted easily and remember only eye-popping visual highlights, he is the guy who is a step slower and got beaten in an ugly way by skate speed a few times last season. For those who can get past the handful of speed-limited problems, he was arguably our best penalty killer, was more than good enough defensively for a 3rd pairing job and finished as our best +/- defenseman. But let's be clear. Gone are the days when Wesley (circa 2002 playoffs with Sean Hill) can be a top pairing guy for 20-22 minutes against the other team's best. He will be most effective in a situation where you can save his legs a bit for penalty killing and pick his matchups/spots as a 3rd pairing guy for 15-17 minutes/night. The Hedican situation is a complete wildcard. He is a gamer and if he does not retire, he will give it a go if it is physically possible. The problem is that we saw last season that while this deserves a ton of credit for heart, effort, valor, etc., it just does not make for a top 4 defenseman on a good team. Perhaps the long summer will do wonders for Bret. Perhaps a healthier team overall will better afford him the chance to rest any ailments. His 06-07 became what it was partly because every time the team had no other healthy options and asked Bret if he could go, he said 'yes' and went regardless of physical limitations and pain. You have to give him a ton of credit for that, but you also have to try to avoid being in that situation again. So trying to make a point, with a full summer off, Hedican could return to healthy/top 4 level play, but counting on that looks more like gambling than a sound strategy for building a winning hockey team.

Then there is the youth. At an attitude, style of play, physical ability level there is plenty to like about Tim Gleason. He is big, physical and skates well. At a physical level, he looks like Aaron Ward except a step faster. But in 06-07, he just was not there at a decision-making level. In a different way, I put him in the Wesley category where it would be nice to have the luxury to pick your spots with Gleason a little more. In a game he is playing particularly well, give him his minutes. But maybe in a 2-2 game in the 3rd period in which he is not having the best of nights and we are on the road being dealt matchups by the opposing coach, maybe he sees a couple fewer shifts down the stretch.

I think Commodore, Kaberle, Wallin give you 3 decent top 4 defensemen types. The issue, if there is one, is that all are really more of a #3 or #4 version of top 4 and none are really the pure top pairing type who skates 25 minutes/night almost exclusively against the other team's best and wins or breaks even in that battle most of the time.

But Matt you say, this depth/balance over stars approach is exactly what won the Stanley Cup in 2006. What has changed? A couple significant things have changed. First, we do not go the same 6 deep in terms of solid defensemen. Ward who was one of our best has been replaced by some variety of learning, developing youth. Second, 2 years later Hedican and Wesley are just not going to enter any season as fresh, rested and healthy as 05-06 especially with its 18-month summer break to heal any/all wounds. Counting on either for 70+ games is risky and counting on either to be inked in pen for their full 20 minutes is doubtful.

So I do not think we desperately need to enter the bidding war for Souray, but I do think we must add a solid first pairing guy. Per my previous post, my short list included Stuart, Hamrlik and Hannan with Hannan being my best best considering affordability and quality.

But Matt you say, aren't we desperately in need of a powerplay quarterback from the blueline from the mold of a Schneider or Timonen? We could definitely use such a player, but in the world of limited budgets, I am more concerned about the defense part of our defensemen. I guess you could also consider me shellshocked from the Ozolinsh and Tverdovsky experiments where we went out and spent a bunch of money on a puck-moving offense-first defenseman only to later realize that the defensive problems outweighed the offensive help that they provided. In an ideal world, 1 of the 3rd line forwards that we also need to sign would be capable of providing another option on the point of the powerplay. A full season of Kaberle also helps. So as much as I would love to see point help for the powerplay in the form of a defenseman, it rates as priority 2.

So what do I do?

1) I go sign 1 top pairing type defenseman. It is a little bit price dependent, but I am on record as liking Hannan, Stuart and Hamrlik. I like these guys at $3-3.5M. I am even fine with a longer contract (3 years, maybe even 4 for Hannan or Stuart who are younger). We have nothing in the blueline pipe for the next couple years, and Wesley and Hedican continue to inch toward retirement. Andrei Markov's $6.75M contract scares me that even this 2nd tier type of player could be too expensive. If forced with the choice of signing 1 of the 3 identified above for $5M/season, I think I might start instead to look for a trade for a younger/cheaper defenseman instead.

2) I take a run at Tanabe for $1.2-1.5M. If I get him, I cut loose Hutchinson and/or Seidenberg to get a few $ back. Based on the 2nd half of last season, I think Tanabe brings more than the Seidenberg/Hutchinson combined.

What is plan B if it does cost $5M for someone like Hannan, Hamrlik or Stuart?

I look at a couple guys in the next tier to provide more depth. Sopel is actually a decent fit in that he is a right shot and does fit on the powerplay.

I also start looking at the trade route. The difficulty here is who do you trade? I don't see any of our top 6 forwards going anywhere. I hate to see any more picks or prospects gone from our already depleted system. The only defenseman who are probably tradeable are Commodore and Kaberle. Wesley is retiring in a Canes uniform. Hedican has no trade value as a health risk at $2.4M. Gleason is going nowhwere because of how we got him. Kaberle would create an even bigger hole at the point on the powerplay. Wallin supposedly has a no-trade clause. Hutchinson and Seidenberg are worth only a pick or lower prospect. The spotlight seems to point to Ladd. (Pause to allow time for a boisterous uproar.) First, let's be clear. No way do I trade him for some aging 1-year quick fix on the blueline. He only goes if we can get a comparable quality and age defenseman. This means the player in return needs to be NHL ready with some real experience, still reasonably cheap and capable of stepping into our top 6 immediately.

Just for fun, here is a quick shot at top players I would like to see us add on defense followed by a list of players I think we are most likely to add. (Note: These are NOT rumors and are NOT from any source other than my own personal opinion of what I think could make sense.) Also, I did not include Tanabe, as he is discussed above.

Top wants: 1) Hannan; 2) Hamrlik; 3) Stuart; 4) Preissing; 5) Sopel.
Best bets for most likely: 1) Sopel; 2) Hamrlik; 3) Devries; 4) Hannan.

If I get a chance, I will try to add on a few options for guys on the trade market in case the free agent defenseman market again becomes too pricey.

Go Canes!

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