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The Oilers currently sit ten points out of a Playoff Spot.

Many people have tried to I Told You So me, since I guaranteed they would make the Playoffs this year.

However, considering that the Oilers are a mere five wins out of a Playoff spot despite leading the NHL in man games lost to injury, I think people should be congratulating me on my good call and not trying to gloat over being right.

Because, let's face it: people are a) sick of the Oilers always getting the top pick and b) amused by the fact that each year people predict them to be finally good and they continue to be in last place.

So this leads to a situation where even though the Oilers clearly and objectively have the best roster in the NHL - and possibly ever in a salary cap world - people continue to think they suck just because they happened to get incredibly injured in the year they for sure no matter what were going to totally turn it around.

And so you have your doubters and your gloaters.

And as hard as it is to see the forest for the trees, the Oilers are just a not-impossible-to-come back from ten points out of the Playoffs with 32 games to go.

Consider the following:

1) They have the second lowest save percentage (5v5) in the NHL. This is because Talbot was terrible in October and November. He has been better since and this statistic is likely to rise.

2) A 7.1% shooting percentage - which, while not terribly low is bottom half of the league and bound to rise considering their roster. These two things combine to give the Oilers a PDO that is fourth lowest in the NHL.

This means that it is statistically likely that the Oilers should have a better record than they do. That's with the roster they used so far, but keep in mind that

3) McDavid and Draisaitl have never played in the same game. The Oilers have exactly zero games where Klebfom, Nurse, Draisaitl, RNH, Yakupov, Hall, Eberle and McDavid have played together.


4) Man games Lost:

McDavid 37
Eberle 13
Yakupov 22
Klefbom 20
Schultz 14
Nugent-Hopkins: 4 with about seven weeks to go.


When you consider all these factors, it is truly incredible that the Oilers are not farther back then they are. I would say that it proves that not only are they a playoff team this year if they were even somewhat healthier, but that if totally healthy they are as good as anyone in the league.

Sure, they may need a couple of pieces to truly be among the leagues elite, but they are also the best last place team of all time, probably in the history of pro sports and the entire world.

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So, You have to give Oilers GMs both past and present a TON of credit for not panicking and bailing on this whole operation. You have to respect their patience.

(Although, I believe had the Predators accepted the Oilers supposed offer of Nugent-Hopkins for Seth Jones it would have haunted this team forever).


But the time for patience is over.

After the Allstar break, the Oilers will have Connor McDavid back and I don't think people actually grasp what that means: it means that a gap of five wins isn't so big, because in a league of super-parity, I don't think you can over-sell the edge having the best player in the world gives you. And McDavid, if he hasn't proven that yet, is about to.

(Aside: he started his NHL career with 12 points in 13 games, which is a 76 point pace which would have put him 8th last year in league scoring. I think we can all agree that players tend to improve quite drastically from their first 12 games in the NHL. So , yes, Best Player.)

Since the Oilers will be getting McDavid back, they will not finish anywhere close to last in the NHL and this makes for an obvious move that will seem too risky to many people but which, if you look at it objectively, isn't risky at all:

Trade their first round pick, while sitting in last place, for the stud defensemen they desperately need.


Here is a list of players I would offer that pick up for: T.J Brodie, Kevin Shattenkirk, Oliver Ekman-Larson, Mattias Lindholm, Jake Muzzin, PK Subban, Dustin Byfuglien, Travis Hamonic, Jake Gardiner

Now, depending on the player in question, you'd have to have the other team add a little, but I don't want to get bogged down in specifics.

The point is this: if the Oilers add a top pairing defensemen to their current roster, they will easily be one of the best teams in the NHL.

They should make this move while they are still able to trick teams into thinking they'll finish last.

Stats: waronice.com

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