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What a tough series to break down.

It is possible that by the end of the regular season, with the addition and assimilation of Devan Dubnyk, the Minnesota Wild were the best team in the Central—the most competitive Division in the NHL.

There are also interesting parallels—and differences—between the Blackhawks’ first round opponent, the Nashville Predators, and the Wild.

Both rely primarily on solid defense and top-notch, large goaltenders. I will venture to say the Wild are a bit more balanced than the Preds—they have more scoring power in their forward lines, but they are not as deep or talented defensively. I love Ryan Suter—I believe he is a superior defender to Shea Weber—and Jonas Brodin. It’s the depth of the Wild’s defense that is not as compelling as Nashville’s. Though it is still pretty solid.

In fact, the Wild don’t really have a “weak link” like the Hawks do with Kimmo Timonen as their sixth defender.

The Wild also can play more of a grind it out “half court “style, while also rushing the puck, where the Preds seem largely reliant on speed to generate chances.

This last fact, I believe, makes the Wild a tougher “out” for the Hawks—who went 3-2 versus Minnesota in the regular season. And the Hawks tend to struggle against more physical teams.

What is interesting is how well the Hawks adjust their game to the postseason. You just don’t see as much transition and stretch passes with the Hawks after the regular season. And at their best in the playoffs, they become a team that maintains offensive zone possession and cycles relentlessly, backchecking relentlessly, hitting more and harder.

Brian Hedger had a nice piece on nhl.com this morning about the 5 reasons the Hawks won in round 1. I agreed with all of it, but the one thing I thought was missing was a mention of faceoffs. Actually, the Hawks went about 49% versus Nashville on draws—yet it seemed like they won the vast majority of “key” faceoffs, especially in the pivotal games.

The fact is, the Hawks are much stronger down the middle this season versus last—with the additions of Brad Richards and Antoine Vermette—and late season pickup Andrew Desjardins is not bad in the dot either. Add these guys to two of the league’s better faceoff guys in Marcus Kruger and Jonathan Toews, and you have a team that will win faceoffs, especially when it matters.

Add that to the cycle the Hawks can maintain on multiple lines, and a top 4 especially adept at maintaining offensive zone pressure—and even Timonen is still pretty good in this area—and you have a problem for any team, even with a great goaltender. Just ask Nashville and Pekka Rinne.

On paper, that’s how Chicago wins this series.

The Wild wins by Dubnyk continuing to dominate and getting timely goals from a fairly deep corps of forwards.

The Wild also have a lot of intangibles. They were blazing hot—the league’s best team—down the stretch and that carried over into the first round where they fairly neatly dispatched a very good St. Louis Blues team in 6 games.

But the Hawks have some intangibles as well. They are the most playoff-experienced club in the league, and their top players come up big in the playoffs (typically).

Neither team was very banged up in the first round, and I suspect the Hawks will get more physical pressure from the Wild and the likes of Matt Cooke and Kyle Brodziak.

However, the Hawks will deliver their pressure in the person of Bryan Bickell, Andrew Shaw and Andrew Desjardins, who are better hockey players than the Blues’ Ryan Reaves.

And the Hawks are actually getting healthier—especially in the person of playoff wunderkind Patrick Kane. Kane seemed to progress in the first round, from borderline non-factor to nearly “Playoff Patrick Kane” by the end of the series.

The Hawks, in spite of a couple of great games from Rinne and Nashville’s outstanding young defense throughout the series, were able to generate pressure from typically 3 or 4 lines every night in round 1. And they were getting stronger as the series wore on.

So for me, the following are the keys to this series.

1. Goaltending

Dubnyk can steal this series for the Wild. It’s that simple.

The Hawks went 3-2 versus Minnesota in the regular season, but the two Minnesota victories were the ones Dubnyk played in, where he allowed one goal over six periods. But here’s an interesting stat, Corey Crawford’s save percentage versus Minnesota was .948 this season. Crawford will likely start the series, but Joel Quenneville will not hesitate to go to Scott Darling if necessary. If the Hawks play as well (or preferably) better in net than they did versus Nashville, where they were really dinged by 3 rough periods in games 1, 5 and 6, that should minimize Minnesota’s advantage with Dubnyk.

ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA

2. Faceoffs

The Hawks were 52% in the dot in the regular season, Minnesota was 49%. This could be a problem for Minnesota especially on special teams and late in games.

ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO

3. Forward depth

Minnesota has improved here versus last year, but the Hawks are deeper and seemed to be coalescing nicely toward the end of the Minnesota series.

ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO

4. Defensive depth

This is tough, because the Hawks’ second pairing is so much stronger than most teams, including the Wild. But their third pairing, essentially Michal Rozsival and Timonen, is weak. And their seventh defenseman is likely AHL/NHL journeyman Kyle Cumiskey. One injury to the top 4 and the Hawks are in trouble.

ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA

5. Chicago PP/Minnesota PK

The Wild finished the season first in killing penalties, thanks in no small part to Dubnyk. The Hawks were 20th on the PP—though they hovered 10th to 15th until Kane got injured in February.

ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA

6. Minnesota PP/Chicago PK

The Hawks led the league in penalty killing for much of the season, before tailing off to 10th before the season’s end. The Wild’s power play was anemic in the regular season, but was great in round 1 (but that could have been due to some suspect St. Louis goaltending). Historically, the Hawks have been a stronger penalty killing team, and I suspect they will revert to norm as the playoffs roll on.

ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO

7. Intangibles

The Wild probably have more momentum.

But I can also pretty much guarantee you, to a man, and although they will say otherwise, they really wanted Nashville in round 2 and not the team that has sent them to the golf course the last two seasons. There is a psychology that goes with being the team with the skins on the wall—and the team that doesn’t have them.

There’s good news and bad news for Chicago. They won the first round playing less than their best hockey. But coming off a huge and at times dominant win in game 6, they do appear to be trending upward.

They also have home ice. And Kane has not played his best playoff hockey yet—though he seems close.

EVEN


PREDICTION

So it’s about as even as it can get—on paper.

In reality, it all depends on what the players and coaches do. Injuries could be a factor.

Bickell has been a force versus the Wild the last two postseasons. And the Hawks need him to do the same this year. Specifically, finishing checks and parking (and staying) in front of Dubnyk. The latter paid huge dividends versus Nashville and Rinne.

The Hawks need to avoid giving up 2- and 3-goal leads. They will almost certainly not be able to overcome those with Dubnyk playing the way he has been for the last 30 games or so.

Conversely, I believe the Hawks’ forwards and activated defense can put more pressure on the Wild defense over the course of the series than the Blues could. And that is due as much to know-how and experience and depth as talent. The Hawks’ “fourth” line, of Marcus Kruger, Andrew Shaw, and either Desjardins or rookie Teuvo Teravainen, which can both shutdown and sustain offensive pressure, could be a difference maker as the series wears on.

A wildcard in this series could be Teravainen. As precarious as the Hawks’ depth is on defense, it’s pretty remarkable at forward. Teravainen, with the right linemates and matchups, could be a problem at some point for the Wild’s depth defensemen. He is very creative around the net, and also knows how to get the puck up in close—which is Dubnyk’s one weakness.

This series has all the earmarks of a 7-game war.

My head says too close to call.

My heart says Chicago in 7.

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