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Eric Staal and the C...and what to do about last year of contract

April 23, 2015, 11:20 PM ET [21 Comments]
Matt Karash
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
A couple days ago, I did a round of what to do with Alexander Semin. You can find that HERE.

Tonight I will take a turn at what to do with Eric Staal. His situation and production did not fall off the cliff as drastically as Semin's, but he has had 2 consecutive down years in terms of point production which is only amplified by the overall performance of the team. He has also captained the team to 5 consecutive (did not count 1st half season miss as just his) playoff misses. Sadly, when other teams' fans are living the playoffs, it has become the norm of late to spend this time of year debating whether Eric Staal is a good captain.

In this blog, I will tackle 2 somewhat interrelated Eric Staal topics:
1) Is he a good captain and/or the right captain going forward for the Canes?
2) What should GM Ron Francis do with his current contract situation?

So on his captaincy...I think it is incredibly hard to judge the performance of a captain from outside the organization. At the end of the day, the results are what we judge, and they are all that matter. But is that right? My Canes point of reference witnessed Ron Francis and Rod Brind'Amour both preside over some very very bad hockey teams - just as bad as the past couple years for the Canes. Ron Francis mostly did it after his team pinnacle as a captain when he led the team to the 2002 finals. And Rod Brind'Amour actually did it before and after leading the team to the Stanley Cup win in 2006. By nearly unanimous accounts (and I agree), both of these players were great captains. My point is that it is not as simple as looking at the Canes string of playoff losses and passing swift and harsh judgment on Eric Staal in this role. And while I think it is fairly easy and even reasonably objective to grade Staal on his statistical production, I think is much harder to measure what he is doing as a captain. There are no stats for it, and a significant portion of the work happens behind closed doors, in the locker room and other places that do not show up on TV or in the newspaper.

But I am actually okay with my own inability to judge Eric Staal as a captain. I regularly have opinions about everything under the sun and am always game for playing backseat coach or GM, but I am hands off with the captain thing for 2 reasons. First, I acknowledge that the fans' view of this role is not enough to really grade it. Second, I thing the team is incredibly well equipped to evaluate Staal in this role and make the right call.

Look at the players who would have input:
--GM=Ron Francis: Obviously knows a thing or 2 about being a captain on winning teams.
--Assistant Coach=Rod Brind'Amour: Ditto.
--Glen Wesley and Cory Stillman: There are 3 more Stanley Cup rings wearing letters.
--Joe Nieuwendyk: He might not be as involved in his role, but yet another resource.
--Bill Peters: He spent a few years in a good organization with good leadership, consistent organizational success and a good current example in Pavel Datsyuk.

So put more simply, if the current Canes brain trust things that Eric Staal is the right guy to wear the C in Raleigh, who am I to suggest different? With Staal's contract up after 1 more year, GM Ron Francis has a pretty easy out on this coming up.

The second topic on Eric Staal is his contract situation. In case visitors are not up to speed, Eric Staal has 1 year at a whopping $9.5M salary/$8.5M cap hit remaining on his current contract and also a no trade clause. So the basic choices seem to be A-Re-sign him this summer; B-Trade him this summer (his approval required obviously); C-Play at least part of the way into next season before doing anything which leaves a re-signing or trade deadline deal as options. Canes Country ran a fan poll on these options. You can see results HERE.

Awhile back either in a blog or a comments section, I posted my thoughts on what to do with Eric Staal's contract situation. In a nutshell, I suggested that Ron Francis should buy low and re-sign him this summer coming off a disappointing season for a hometown discount or at least a reasonable price. My only caveat is that he checks out okay with both management (mostly Ron Francis) and the coaching staff (Peters gave him a decent endorsement despite the team's failure to make the playoffs). Assuming this pre-requisite checks out okay, my thinking goes like this:

--He is still a good NHL player and scorer if he can bounce even modestly from his 2015-16 production. Point totals are coming down in the NHL these days. Scorers who everyone is happy with (because their teams won) seemed to be pegged at 70 points this year. Players who played almost all of the possible 82 games and finished between 66 and 73 points included Getzlaf, Zetterberg, Nash, Tarasenko, Giroux, Stamkos, Toews and HSedin.

--With the current playoff drought the Canes will be hard-pressed to lure someone of similar caliber to replace him.

If either the brain trust votes no on his leadership role or if he just simply wants to leave (does not seem so per interviews but who knows with athletes always saying the right thing these days), then I say cut ties this summer and move forward sooner rather than later.

My wild guess is that Eric Staal gets a vote of confidence and either wants to or is at least willing to consider staying. If that is the case, I would make the commitment to him and the team and work to re-sign him this summer. But I would not in any way consider this a "sign him at all costs" project - quite the opposite actually. Eric Staal will have collected $58 million on his current contract, and unless the Canes break through in its final year in 2015-16, the team will have made exactly $0 in playoff revenue and taken multiple steps backward financially. He is also coming off a down year production-wise.

If I am Ron Francis, I would lay it on real heavy this summer and challenge him to decide if he really, truly wants to remain a Hurricane.

One quiet morning at PNC Arena, I would schedule a heart-to-heart meeting. It goes like this. "Eric, as you know, we need to figure out the long-term for you and this franchise. With a falling season ticket base and no playoff money for multiple years, the franchise is not in the greatest financial position right now. But you know from experience how great this hockey market can be. We are not looking to do a multi-year, from the bottom rebuild. We are looking to win again with the current core, and I want you to be the leader of it. I cannot right now win an open market bidding war for your services. But what I can offer you is a reasonable contract and more importantly a path to have your #12 up in the rafters here (pointing to #s 10, 17 and 2). Do you want to stay and lead this franchise back to greatness?"

In today's sports world, it is only players at the tail end of their career with minimal market value who truly take big discounts and even then it is usually for 1-year deals to chase a 1st Stanley Cup. So I am not naïve to think that Eric Staal is going to sign for next to nothing when he has significant market value for 1 more big contract. In today's free agent frenzy July, I think his market value is in a range of $6-7.5M as long as the term is not too long (4-5 years takes him to 34 or 35). My bet is that he would get on the higher end of that using Jason Spezza as a recent comparable. So if I am Ron Francis, I would push him to do the right thing for the organization and take a hometown discount to $5.5M for 4-5 years. The fact that Skinner and Jordan Staal sit at $6M/year could complicate this a little. The pecking order thing maybe makes $6M+ a little the right number. I would consider stretching that far as long as term is only 4-5 years. I do not think Eric Staal is currently in the same category as Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, etc. but when you look at the caliber of players who have signed for $4M+ very recently, he is easily a bargain at $5.5M and even $6M.

What say you Canes fans? Am I wrong to just trust the leadership on the captain thing? Is 6 years of no playoffs with Eric wearing the C enough to make you just want to trade him and move on? What do you think his fair market value is next summer if he gets there? And how much is a reasonable discount to ask for?

Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63

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