The tale of 2014-2015 is one that differs significantly from 2013-2014 despite little change in the roster. The main pieces were still in place for the Sharks during both seasons but the results were completely different. San Jose went from a 111 point team to an 89 point team. The idea the Sharks needed to ‘take a step back’ I’m sure didn’t include a 22 point drop in the standings with almost the same roster.
The Sharks possession was almost the complete opposite this season from what it was the previous year.
The dip from December – March torched most of the Sharks 2014-2015 season. They didn’t play anywhere near the great hockey they played in the previous season.
For the year, Marleau and Couture dropped around 3% CF each while Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski remained within 0.04% and 0.18% of their previous season totals. Those are your major minute players for the Sharks up front and the struggles of the second line had a major impact on the Sharks forgettable season. The impact trickled down to the defenders with Vlasic and Braun suffering as a result because Marleau and Couture are the forwards they play the most 5v5 minutes with.
The 2014-2015 Sharks spent only two months above 53% compared to the five months the 2013-2014 Sharks spent above that mark. By the time this year’s Sharks got themselves back up above 53% - April - it was too late. They were a capable team that didn’t always ice the ideal lineup, but the real hindrance on possession was the struggles of guys like Marleau, Couture and Wingels.
The Sharks shot under league average in each of the last two seasons. It made little impact on the 13/14 season because possession was so strong and they could afford to be slightly below average shooting because they had average goaltending and a great possession game. This year when the Sharks received below average shooting and average goaltending there was nothing to save them. They weren’t playing strong hockey and couldn’t compensate for missing numbers. The difference was 0.4% at 5v5 - on the lower end for this year, which didn’t help.
Shooting percentage in general is full of luck. The 0.4% difference might seem trivial just looking at the small number but that 0.4% of worse luck cost the Sharks 8 goals over their 1960 5v5 shots on goal – the difference in being in the bottom 10 for 5v5 GF and being smack dab in the middle. San Jose took nearly 200 more shots in 13/14 and shot more successfully at a higher percentage – which placed them in the top five 5v5 GF. That goes back to possession – they gave themselves a better opportunity in the offensive zone. San Jose went from being the 5th highest scoring 5v5 team to the 9th worst when the drop shouldn’t have been that significant had they not struggled in possession as dearly.
The Sharks 5v5 save percentage for 13/14 was 92.2%, for 14/15 it was 92.0% - barely any difference. The Sharks tenders did basically what they did the year before – come in slightly below the league average.
Without the significantly better possession game, the below league average numbers hurt a lot more. More luck in the shot percent department or above average goaltending and the Sharks would have been able to outrun the possession numbers and get into the playoffs – but everyone would have known they weren’t a contending team at the end of the day based on what they did for possession.
The end result of all this is that the Sharks can get back to being a playoff team with a possession fix. The goaltending isn’t going to get much better based on who is available unless they make a trade. The shooting percentage is luck driven and can’t drop much more – only three teams shot worse at 5v5 than San Jose. If you’re going to be an average team shooting and in goal then you need a strong possession game if you want to compete. The foundation of a strong possession game gives you a chance for luck to even out.
Providing certain players can get their game back to a higher level the Sharks will be alright as long as the coaching staff – whether it’s McLellan or someone else – can settle down with in-game management and trust what works. Do they still need a boost on defence? Sure they do, but they need Couture’s line to get the job done as well or they're going to struggle to get back to the post-season.
Thanks for reading.
San Jose Sharks Blogger • 
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