Justin Braun might be getting a little more credit than he deserves in San Jose.
I've been on the fence this year about Braun and the legitimacy behind his placement on the first pairing and what his actual value is in the top four. I've stated many times he should be on the top pairing - but that's due to who he gets partnered with.
Don’t get me wrong, I like Braun, but I question his perceived value above the #4 defender spot.
This all ties into why I believe the Sharks need another top-four defenceman.
Braun Needs Vlasic
Without Marc-Edouard Vlasic, over the past three seasons, Braun’s play drops significantly on both sides of the puck. He produces less offense and struggles more in the defensive zone. Without Vlasic, he no longer has that all-star caliber cushion to fall on.
Over the last three seasons, Braun has played just over 2800 minutes at 5v5 with just over 1400 of those while paired with Vlasic. Let’s look at Braun/Vlasic CF% WOWY as well as 5v5 points WOWY.
This is pretty cut-and-dry. Without Vlasic, Braun struggles to hit an even on-ice shot attempt differential. Vlasic continues to play at a high level with or without Justin Braun. So how much is Vlasic really carrying Braun overall?
Braun just doesn’t produce at the same rate offensively as when he’s with Vlasic, or when he’s forced to be the top guy on the pairing. He hasn’t scored a single 5v5 goal without Vlasic in the last three seasons. Keep in mind the TOI with and without Vlasic is nearly equal over the past three seasons.
Perhaps more troubling than the three seasons combined is the GA60 with and without Vlasic this year for Justin Braun.
With Vlasic, Braun has a GA60 of 1.59 – a great number. Without Vlasic, that number plummets so much that I’m sure NASA had to be called in to track it. The magic number for GA60 without Vlasic this year is 4.15.
Watching Braun over the past three seasons – and under more scrutiny this year – it has me wondering what his true value is in the top four, especially if he isn't going to play with Vlasic. His new $3.8M per season contract is an absolute steal – if he’s going to play with Vlasic.
If he isn't, I’m not so sure it’s as great of a deal - considering it's less than 500K than what Vlasic makes - and it’s why I’d prefer the Sharks to acquire another top four defender. It's also why I like Dillon over Braun in the pecking order, he’s just not as dependent on another player.
Thanks for reading.
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