It is an eyesore and it is a talking point.
The Kings have been bad on the road. Or at least that is what their record would convey.
With a feeble 5-8-6 record on the road, the fourth fewest road wins in the NHL, it is hard to argue anything else. They have been bad on the road.
However, when you have a team like the Kings that dominates possession metrics it is hard to believe that the woes will continues. Our best friend, regression.
We touched briefly on some of the Kings home/away numbers in the last blog, and it was surprising that they weren't all that different. The only real major differences were the results.
That could be contributed to any number of things, but first look at how similar the numbers and chances have been.
Using the chart provided by
WarOnIce.com, you can see that the Kings have maintained a similar formula of high chances for with limited chances against. Both home and away.
Home
Away
And in terms of all-situations scoring chances, the Kings also hold some really good numbers.
They are second overall in the league in away scoring chance +/-, with a +44 (insert band reference here). At home they are 14th in the league with a +82. Both the prorated chances over 60 are similar.
Away scoring chances for/against -
27.9/25.6
Home scoring chances for/against -
29.2/25.3
So what gives? Why the stark difference in record? From a numbers standpoint, the Kings really shouldn't have a near 20-point difference in their home/away records.
One theory is that it is just pure dumb luck, or lack thereof, that they have such a good record at home and such a bad record away. You could make equal arguments that the Kings didn't deserve to win as many games at home to start the year. Think back to game earlier in the year, like the October 19th 2-1 win over the Wild. Ya know, the one that looked like this:
It was a 2-1 Kings victory that they probably shouldn't have had, but they got it anyways. Just how you could make the case that Calgary didn't exactly deserve the victory they got against the Kings last week. In essence it balances out over the course of the year, but depending on where you get those victories it can make your records look very deceiving.
One major difference at home versus the road is the starts. If there is one thing that stands out amongst the Kings underlying numbers in home and away scenarios it is the bad starts.
At home the Kings are a positive in first periods in every imaginable category. Fenwick, corsi, scoring chances, etc. They are plus in all differentials in the first period at home. Get them on the road and it's a different story. as expected, minus in every category. Instead of being a top 10 team in most of the possession metrics they are average to below average in the league.
In fact the Kings allow the most goals against in road first periods in the league. With an average of 3.5 goals against per/60. That number at home is 2.1.
That is a huge factor in the Kings road record. Thinking about it logically, if you get down that early to a team at home it makes the job of shutting the game down and controlling play that much easier. When you look at the second and third period goals against on the road as well, they are amongst the best in the league at 2.4 and 2.6 respectively. Also, all of the fenwick and corsi numbers also correct themselves to more suitable levels as the games progress. Some of this may be attributed to score effects, as the Kings get down early and opposing teams basically park the bus.
Still, the idea coming out of the Kings camp that starts are of the utmost concern are 100% correct. At the current state of things, the Kings are probably one of the worst first period road teams in hockey. Some of it is bad luck. Some of it is just poor play.
It might be as simple as that. Correct the first period, correct the start, and the record corrects itself.
The other factor is the special teams, which can be a unforeseen variable in a lot of games. The Kings convert on the powerplay at a
26.3% rate at home. Fourth best overall in the NHL. They get an average of 3.6 power plays as well.
On the road it is clicking at a 12.9%, 24th in the NHL. They receive just about as many power plays as well, with 3.3 a game.
Switch to the PK, which is 10th overall at home with an
85.1% kill rate. However, the
road rate is currently at a stellar 74.2%. 28th in the entire NHL. The times shorthanded are almost identical, at just over three powerplays given up a game both home and road.
Is there an explanation for that? Not really. Maybe they have simply face better powerplay teams on the road than at home. The real truth is that they just lose the coin flip that is a the powerplay on the road more often than they win it.
The special teams numbers, as bad as they may seem, leave room for correction as the year progresses into the second half. That will help out significantly in some of the games the Kings have dropped on the road.
The biggest concern that should be in the mind of the Kings coaching staff currently though is the start of games. That has lost the Kings many games that they have played well in, and will continue to be a thorn in their side if they can't find a way to get up for games. Especially in opposing buildings.
Only then will the bad road record sort itself out.
The team began a long home stand last night against Nashville, and won't have to think about travel or road games until near the end of January.
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