Welcome to another edition of the Hockeybuzz hotstove.
With the Toronto Maple Leafs in the midst of a 9-1-1 run that has seen them shoot up the standings, the hotstove examines if they are a legitimate contender in the Eastern Conference.
Todd Cordell
I have to say no on this one, but I do really like some of the things going on in Toronto. Depth signings (and waiver claims) such as Mike Santarelli, Daniel Winnik, David Booth and Richard Panik have certainly paid off and have made the Leafs a much better team, but I don't think they can contend with the beasts of the East come playoff time.
Popular opinion (and one I agree with) suggests centers and defense are the two most important positions. While they have some talent at both, I don't think they're good enough at either to take out the likes of Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, etc.
Let's look at the No. 1 center position, for example. Could anyone see Tyler Bozak playing as well or better than a guy like Steven Stamkos, Sidney Crosby or John Tavares in a seven-game playoff series? I can't, and I don't think the rest of the roster is good enough to make up for the difference.
Again, I like some of the things Toronto is doing but I think they're a piece or two away from taking the next step.
Ryan Wilson
I believe they can make the playoffs, but they won't be a realistic contender. They have a gamebreaker in Phil Kessel and a pretty decent goaltending tandem. It will be important for them to not run into any more injury issues. Having Lupul and Booth back in the lineup really helps their depth.
Here's the problem for Toronto, they are still a bad possession team that relies on a high PDO. This worked in the 2012-13 season when they had a Score-Adjusted fenwick of 45.2% and a PDO of 1030. This year they have a SAF of 45.7% and a PDO of 1018. They don't have the luxury of only playing half the year. There is a longer time frame for regression to rear it's ugly head. To be a true contender you can't be one of the bottom five teams in puck possession.
Colin Dambrauskas
This is a question going through any and all Maple Leafs fans at this moment; Are we actually a good team?
It's sort of a tricky question because frankly, if you look at the standings there are a few teams who should be doing better than they are and I feel will slowly move back up in the standings. I find it hard to believe that a team like Boston will remain out of a secured playoff spot for much longer, and then you have teams like Washington, Philadelphia and the Rangers who will certainly keep things interesting down the stretch.
I suppose what this all means is that fans should expect teams under the Leafs in the standings at this moment to possibly (even likely) heat up and challenge for the position in which the Maple Leafs currently find themselves.
Now, to answer the question more specifically. I do in fact feel that this Leafs team can and will make the playoffs, however I still do not feel that they are a "legitimate playoff" team. I say this because at this point in time, much of the team are still new and, well, inexperienced when it comes to the playoffs. Heck, most of the core share one playoff year worth of experience - not always a recipe for success.
That being said, provided that this team continues to focus on their 200ft defensive game, Randy Carlyle continues to effectively roll four lines, and guys like Clarkson, Kadri, & Santorelli keep doing the little things so well, their current 9-1-1 pace could in fact be an indication of what this group can offer when firing on all cylinders!
Still, I maintain that this group will be tested, and tested well come January when teams around them really start to heat up. So this could certainly be, as history has previously offered, an interesting wrap up to the year for this group.
Tim Chiasson
No.
On average, over the last five years, there are three teams that make the playoffs without being in the top-16 in score-adjusted fenwick. Even the Leafs assistant GM, Kyle Dubas, said they can't keep winning games like this but here we are getting closer to the halfway mark of the year and Toronto is only two points back of the division lead.
Eventually poor possession catches up to you, whether it's in the regular season or playoffs, but unless the Leafs have a total meltdown like they did last season they might have done enough so far to get them to the dance.
While they may make the playoffs it doesn't make them a contender. If they continue to be outplayed they will start to implode and we've been shown nothing on significance to make everyone believe that the Leafs are going to be a top possession team any time soon.
Adam French
They can contend, but aren't a contender.
I think it's safe to say any team can win the East. Obviously there are more traditional or simple picks, like the Penguins and Lightning this season, but in reality, the East is a strange beast. The East is where a Montreal team can laugh their way through the Bruins, cause Rask to implode, Chara to lose his mind and Lucic to lose his...can't really say mind. Unlike the West where it seems like some kind of Vietnam simulator to get through, the East often seems like tactical match ups where some teams simply aren't designed to beat others...or MA Fleury and the Pens forget how to play inexplicably.
What I'm getting at is that two weeks ago the Leafs were entering laughingstock territory, with some tweaks and lessening what is probably the worst defensive line this side of the Oilers ice-time to reflect more zone starts, things are turning around. But I don't think the Leafs are as good as the hot streak entails, nor as bad as the humiliating defeats suffered earlier. They're somewhere in between, so they can "contend" with any team in the East, I don't doubt that, but I hesitate to put them in the "prime contender" category just yet.
I will say this however, Jonathan Bernier has had some ups and downs this year, but he has shown he can be very hard to beat when on his game. Holland proving to be a very reliable defensive player with some pop, along with Kadri taking strides in his own end have really allowed the Leafs to become a three line team. Something that will serve them well. Heck...pretty sure Panik has more goals this season from the fourth line than the entire fourth line combined for the past three seasons.
James Tanner
Sorry Leafs fans, but no they are not. The team is deep, but they have problems. Mainly they lack an elite number one centre and an elite number one defenseman. They are routinely outshot and are one of the NHL's worst possession teams. Its not impossible that they will make the Playoffs, but it is unlikely unless they add at least one of their two primary needs.
The Leafs get outshot every game, they have been relatively injury free, they havn't blown a single lead when leading after two periods and they are one of the highest scoring teams in the NHL and they have gotten great goaltending.
Despite all those things, they aren't exactly lapping the competition and when the scoring dries up (and it will, they aren't the second best offensive team in hockey) and injuries happen, when they blow a couple leads etc. the team will most likely plummet.
I haven't even mentioned special teams yet, and the Leafs dominate those as well. Both PK and PP are likely to get lower as time goes on and then well, you know what happens.
There is of course one way the Leafs can contend - trade the future to the Coyotes for Yandle and Hanzal.
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