Seems like a pretty ridiculous question right? One that lies under the umbrella of
Betteridge's law of headlines maybe? Probably. However, it's a good segway to establishing the idea that it isn't as radical a statement as it may seem on the surface. For those of you that scoffed at that or are confused by that, I urge you to read on.
The other night on twitter our friend of the blog and JFTC writer, Andrew (
@Andrewleafman) , tweeted out the following:
The LRT (Last retweet) he is referencing is the following chart from Dominic Galamani of
OwnThePuck.com:
The chart is just another representation and example of what we have already known about Jake Muzzin for several years: He's pretty good at hockey. Particularly at keeping the puck out of his own net while helping his team put it in the other.
Muzzin has been an analytics monster for several years running now, and after a slow start to this season is back to his normal averages of at or above 60% corsi for. That number is real solid when you consider the quality of minutes Muzzin gets. He still has his critics though. I'm sure you've heard it before from plenty of people as well, but Muzzin isn't excelling in those numbers simply because he is paired with Drew Doughty.
In fact, it's quite the opposite. Players have been better when paired with Jake Muzzin. Doughty in particular is a 54.68 Corsi for % without Muzzin, versus a 62.62 with him. Interesting. So Muzzin is making Doughty a better possession player. In fact, basically everyone on the team is a better possession player with Muzzin.
That chart is compiling the data from the last three seasons as well, so this isn't just some isolated thing. Muzzin has simply been one of the best defenders on the team and in the league for some time, and he makes his teammates better.
Now, is he Norris worthy?
Hmmm that's a tough one for me. If you follow me on twitter and followed the debate between Andrew, Myself, and other JFTC writer Nick (
@Dightkwing), the ultimate conclusion in my corner was basically "Not yet."
Why do I say this if he is so dominant in the basic concept of helping his team score goals while preventing them? Isn't that the basic concept of defense? And if Muzzin has been one of the best of the best in said category doesn't that default to being the best defenseman? You could definitely make a solid argument for that, and Mr. Lifland, among others, is a perennial voice behind No. 6 using these numbers.
Here is where I draw my line in the sand though. Unfortunately for Jake Muzzin the Norris trophy is the best
OVERALL defenseman, and there are a few things he is lacking.
1. His ice time
Muzzin does wonderfully with his time on ice. However, it isn't as much as past Norris winners or players who are constantly in the discussion for the award. I'm talking about guys like Chara, Keith, Subban, Karlsson, Suter, Weber, and Doughty.
For example, Suter, Doughty, and Karlsson all lead the league this year in average time on ice so far with a 29:13, 28:58, and 27:43 respectively.
Here's a look at the top 10 in 2013-14:
and 2012-13:
Where did Muzzin rank in those years and in this season?
2012-13 -
159th with an average of
17:53
2013-14 -
123rd with an average of
19:06
2014-15 -
31st with an average of
23:24
Those average ice time numbers are definitely not Norris quality. Granted, Muzzin has seen a steady increase year after year as he has gained more confidence in his game and ability, you cannot put him on the same level as a Suter or Karlsson. With an increase in ice time, quite simply you have more opportunity to mess up. Guys like Suter, like Doughty, like Karlsson, they still have maintained continual seasons of good corsi for % numbers (Suter has had his ups and downs) while maintaining an average ice time that is almost 10 minutes more than that of Jake Muzzin. The possibility of Muzzin faltering in some of his good possession numbers if his ice time is increased to the levels of 26-30 minutes is always a possibility. Now, we HAVE seen Muzzin play these sorts of minutes, particularly in the playoffs, and not lose a step. That being said he has to maintain that level of play and minute usage and also maintain the good analytics numbers for the ENTIRETY of an 82-game regular season.
2. Production
This one is definitely arguable to a degree, as production from a defenseman isn't everything. But hey, ya know what? Neither are fancy stats! AHHHH There I said it. But production, that one also isn't everything. It's a balance that you have to have of both good defensive play AND production. Insert Mike Green of the Capitals, who is essentially a forward playing defense, and has never won a Norris with seasons up in the 70 point range (He should have won in 2008-09 over Chara though IMO). The general consensus was that Mike Green wasn't the best
OVERALL defenseman due to his heavy offensive orientation. That being said, production STILL matters. Over the last five seasons the lowest point total a Norris winning defenseman has had is 50 points when Zdeno Chara won it back in 08-09. In fact, the lowest point total a FINALIST has had over the past five years is 44 points, and that was Chara again in 2010-11.
*Note: I prorated the lockout shortened season statistics to be as comparable as possible.
Muzzin hasn't even come close to the same levels of production. In 2012-13 he had a prorated point total of around 30 points, and the following year he had 24.
Now, this year he is on a much better ppg pace and would see himself finish with exactly 50 points. That is within the Norris range.
With this in my mind, consider again that if he opted to be more offensive it could take away from his good corsi for % levels. Coming back to Mike Green who I said should have won the Norris in 08-09, he put up a 76 points season while being a 54.4% corsi for. That's quite good. In comparison, Chara won it that year with a 55.2%, but only 50 points. Both very good years nonetheless.
3. That special something
The least important of the three, but still something to take into consideration. Maybe it's confidence or dominance or the ability to simply take over a game. All of the aforementioned players have that quality. Some do it with offensive prowess, like Doughty, Karlsson, Green or Subban. Some do it with huge minutes and defensive and physical domination like a Chara, Suter, or Weber. One thing is for certain though, they have the ability and it feels like it can come at any moment. Muzzin, to me at least, doesn't have that quality yet. Again, he showed flashes of it in the playoffs but hasn't done it on a regular enough basis to be considered an elite level defenseman. There is a certain fear and cautiousness that opposing teams have when it comes to lining up against the aforementioned group, and Muzzin's name is not on that list yet.
With all of this in mind there is one giant asterisk to put in place: YET. Add yet to almost everything that applies to Muzzin not being of Norris caliber yet. I think I have made a pretty clear case as to why our good friend Andrew is jumping the gun in his statement that Muzzin has had Norris caliber years the last two years. However, at only 25 years of age and an upward trend in all of the categories that people look at for the Norris trophy, it may be just a matter of time for the young blueliner. I compare him to Duncan Keith a little, who I feel Muzzin plays a similar style too. Muzzin is probably a little more physically engaging while Keith is a little more offensive oriented, but they both play fairly steady and low risk games. Keith really hit his stride after about his 3rd year, and by his 5th season in the league he had his first Norris trophy with the Hawks. He now has two, the second of which he won last year.
When you look at his corsi chart, well, that seems about right.
Muzzin is still very much in the early stages of his graph, but it wouldn't surprise me if it turns out to be fairly similar to that of Keith's, if it doesn't altogether avoid the slumping years after he won his first Norris.
So what I'm saying is Jake Muzzin for Norris in 2016-17. Book it. Not really, but maybe, why not?
The most crucial point to all this is that Jake Muzzin is a stud in the waiting. He isn't Norris caliber yet. Realistically he is probably just inside or outside the top 10 in defensemen in the league currently. Overall though the Kings covet one of the best possession defensemen in the NHL, and he just has a few more hurdles to leap before we start talking about him in the elite category. At just 25 year's old, a free agent signing, and with a cap hit of $4MM AAV until 2019-20 how could you not be excited at what his future holds?
Follow me on twitter for news and notes about the Kings and the NHL
Also be sure to like HockeyBuzz on facebook!
++++I AM CURRENTLY LOOKING FOR ADVERTISERS! If you, or anyone you know would be interested in placing an ad on the blog here at HockeyBuzz then send me a PM!+++++ 
Los Angeles Kings Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»