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Another Tragic Weekend For Leafs? |
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TORONTO (Mar. 24) -- When the National Hockey League schedule comes out for next season, the Maple Leafs will be hoping for a light slate of games in the fourth week of March. This particular juncture of the schedule has been terribly unkind to the Leafs for two years running, and the Stanley Cup playoffs could be nothing but a dream once again if the Blue and White drops a second straight game to Buffalo tonight at the Air Canada Centre.
I'm sure Leaf fans are feeling the pain today of last night's third-period collapse at HSBC Arena -- a 4-1 lead for Toronto in the third period wound up as a 5-4 regulation-time victory for the Sabres after a sensational comeback by the NHL's top team. And, that is something distraught Leaf supporters must be mindful of today. As I mentioned in one of my radio reports for this morning, Leaf fans can go one of two ways: Either dump all over their favorite team for gassing the game last night, or try to understand why so many people are picking Buffalo to win the Stanley Cup this spring. There aren't many teams in the league that could have maintained focus and roared back the way the Sabres did -- with four goals in an 8:45 span of the final frame. And, don't forget, Buffalo was playing without four of its most significant parts: Tim Connolly, Maxim Afinogenov, Ales Kotalik and Toni Lydman -- all injured. That shows you how competent and deep the Sabres really are, and why they should be strong favorites to raise the Cup if they return to health during the playoffs.
For the Leafs... well, it's an unwelcomed deja vu. It was one year ago this weekend that the Buds went into Montreal full of confidence for a two-game set against the Canadiens. They left the Bell Centre with their playoff hopes dashed after 5-1 and 6-2 thumpings. Even a remarkable 9-1-2 run over the final 12 games -- with back-up J.S. Aubin starring in goal -- could not compensate for the two spankings by the Canadiens. And, the Leafs will be in a painfully similar spot, 52 weeks later, if they drop another game to Buffalo tonight. As it stands, Toronto is clinging to post-season life in the Eastern Conference -- not because the Leafs are so many points removed from eighth place, but as a result of the teams stacking up between them and the final playoff spot. If everything goes to hell for the Leafs today, they could be mired in 11th spot in the East, with the nearest team (the Islanders) three points ahead. The Islanders, Montreal and Carolina stand in the way of a berth in the Cup tournament right now, and the worst-case scenario today and tonight would have the Leafs losing to the Sabres; the Islanders winning at Philadelphia; Carolina knocking off San Jose at home and Montreal beating Washington at the Bell Centre (all in regulation time). As you can see, this would not be an unfathomable set of results. The Hurricanes have the toughest chore, as San Jose is blazing-hot at the end of a four-game road trip.
A reversal of that scenario -- Leafs beating Buffalo; Philly knocking off the Islanders; the Sharks winning in Raleigh and the Capitals upsetting the Habs (all in regulation) -- would leave Toronto tied in points with Montreal and Carolina (82), but alone in ninth spot ahead of the Habs, as the Leafs will maintain a game in hand on Montreal after today's action. Chances are, however, the infamous "three-point games" will come into play, and the standings will be further jumbled as a result.
Whatever the case, the Leafs are in tough this weekend, playing a divisional foe that will be the odds-on favorite of many observers to win its first Stanley Cup this spring. Buffalo is a complete package, with quality and depth throughout the organization, a respected and battle-hardened coach, and arguably the best young goalie in the NHL today. If the Leafs lose again tonight, they will feel frustration, but they should not feel shame.
Toronto Maple Leafs Blogger • 
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