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Coyotes Commitment To Vets Belies Common Sense, Hurts Future |
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The Arizona Coyotes lost last night to a team that they would like very much to emulate. The Wild showed the Coyotes exactly how to execute an up-tempo game with a well-balanced group of forwards, an active defense and a strong goaltender.
The Wild won, 2-0 and that was only because Mike Smith played very well and was the only reason this game wasn't 4 or 5-0. The Coyotes came close to scoring maybe three times. A generous three.
What set the two teams apart was the forward lines. The Wild have three lines that are better than any line the Coyotes can throw out and it showed all game. The third Wild line, which would be by far and away the Coyotes best line if last night was any indication of how they usually play.
Niederreiter-Haula-Fontaine controlled the play when they were on the ice and the Coyotes had no answer for Niederreiter who's stat line of 1 single shot and under 14 minutes of ice time is not representative of what he did last night. His line seemed to constantly have the puck and create havoc in the Coyotes zone. At one point he stripped Smith of the puck behind the net and almost scored a wrap around. They seemed to just bowl through defenders at will and had an energy I haven't seen anyone display on the Coyotes outside of Doan, all season.
When you can ice a third line this effective, it's hard to lose hockey games.
Conversely, the Coyotes bottom 9 forwards combined for 4 shots in about 40 minutes of ice-time. This team, who boasts - like Minnesota - a very active defense, and whose main offensive move is to shoot from the point and get bodies in front of the net, has a brutal bottom six that is not capable of any offense what-so-ever.
Now don't get me wrong, Moss, Chipchura, Klinkhammer, Vitale, McMillan, and Crombeen are, individually, useful to somewhat useful players, but as a collection they are sub-NHL quality. While other teams are moving away from pure grinders, the Coyotes ice a fourth line that has zero offensive talent.
Then there is the fact that they so many guys playing way too high in the lineup: Korpikoski is not a second line player, Vermette is not a first line centre and Shane Doan - who played very well, again, last night - isn't a first line winger anymore.
When this team jettisoned virtually every single one of its prospects before the season started, I thought it was due to market concerns and that they couldn't afford to have a non-competitive team that would miss the playoffs and so they would thus try to grind their way to victory.
Now, if this team wants to play a more passive style of hockey - 4 men back - they could probably do this. But their aggressive, high energy approach is not working because the forwards are just too slow and frankly, most of them are terrible. B.J Crombeen? Why not just strap eight skates on some sort of cephalopod?
Whenever Crombeen is on the ice, it's a joke. Outside of Vitale and maybe Moss, who I would term as very good fourth liners, the entire bottom six is barely NHL quality - healthy scratch material. And that means for 20 minutes every night the Coyotes are too slow and badly outmatched against most teams.
For an NHL team to dress Crombeen, Klinkhammer and Chipchura in the same game, in 2014, seems insane.
If the reason this roster is constructed like it is to win a bunch of 2-1 games and be the 8th seed for financial reasons then I believe they made a massive miscalculation because I don't think this team can do that.
I mean, think about it - they have undoubtedly the worst first line in the NHL and it doesn't get better as you move down. At least the Vermette, Boedker, Doan line has been effective in every game so far. Still, while that line has done reasonably well, some coaching decisions remain questionable. Why, for instance, does Vermette have to start every power-play on the top unit?Why isn't (when healthy) Martin Hanzal the first line centre? It makes no sense.
Or it does - because I've been thinking about this a lot, and I don't necessarily believe the Coyotes sent all the young players away for financial reasons anymore. What I think, is that they did it because they believe they owe it to their Veterans to ice the most competitive team possible and that - due to outdated thinking that values experience over talent - this was the best way to do it. Subsequently, Vermette, who is considered a member of the veteran core and a Coyote of longstanding stature, get's to play over Gagner because he's Vermette, not because he is a stronger offensive player.
There was a pre-season quote given to Craig Morgan sometime after the Coyotes cut Domi, and I'm paraphrasing, but Don Maloney said something like "Ask Mike Smith, what he thinks of a 'youth movement,' ask Vermetter, ask Doan, ask Yandle."
Based on this quote, the way the team has been constructed and deployed, I think they are doing the old 'last kick at the can' with this core group of veterans. If they believe winning sells and that this would achieve that, then it makes perfect sense. It's just that, it doesn't sell if you don't win, and they can't win this way. Not only is it a misguided philosophy, it actively hurts the team going forward because they are not learning what players they have in the minors can do at the pro level. I think this is a mistake. I think it's extremely regressive thinking. And, I think it hurts the franchise's long-term ability to eventually ice a winner. The team as it is currently constructed and deployed has no chance to make the playoffs.
They could easily have sold their fans on a youth movement. Casual fans aren't coming out to see Antoine Vermette anyways and won't get excited until the playoffs are a real possibility. Meanwhile I don't think selling fans on Youth and Potential is really that hard. In some ways it's easier because you can sell "potential" like it's snake oil - there literally is nothing you have to do but convince people it's there. Since results don't matter when you sell potential you could argue that marketing and ticket wise, this would actually have been the less risky, higher reward strategy than what they have done.
And trust me, this team's system is loaded with Youth and potential. I don't like watching frigging Kyle Chipchura turn the puck over yet again. I don't want to watch Chipchura get in Yandle's way as Yandle tries to carry the puck out of his own end (worst breakout ever, by the way). I would way rather watch Lucas Lessio and Tyler Gaudet, Henrik Samuelsson or Justin Hodgman because at least they have potential and will likely still be here in a year or two.
Covering this team, I read everything I can about them and it honestly seems that the local reporters are just happy to have an NHL team to cover - there is almost zero criticism of management and/or ownership - even though they are, in my opinion, doing a poor job and an even worse job explaining why.
Mike Smith doesn't want a youth movement? That's your excuse? Then trade Mike Smith.
Well, I may be a homer - and I am, I cheer openly for the team and I honestly thought their youth and defense as well as growth seasons from Gagner, Hanzal and Boedker would be amazing to watch this year and way better than people thought they would be - but I did not expect them to retain every single boring, slow, player they had and ice not a single prospect on forward.
(Except for McMillan who does what he can in 8 minutes every night and is actually pretty good on the PK).
Furthermore, the deployment of Sam Gagner has been abjectly awful. The team has scored so far because of an unsustainable 30% power-play and an active defense. But this can't last. Last night there was almost no sustained pressure in the Wild's end. The broadcast team credited them with a generous seven scoring chances for the game, but they played sloppy all night and were, in my opinion, lucky to even be in a position to pull their goalie at the end of the game.
Down by 2 with seven minutes left, they don't put out Gagner, their most creative forward outside of Boedker, and they generate exactly zero chances to score. It was brutal.
Just to get back to the comparison with Minnesota for a second, the Wild iced a fourth line of Cooke-Carter-Zucker. Now, Zucker is not star, but he has more offensive potential than just about anyone the Coyotes skated at forward last night outside of Gagner and Boedker. Zucker Carter and Cooke were way better than I've ever seen the Coyotes fourth line be. To say that these guys are an improvement over Moss and Crombeen is to say that Sidney Crosby is a bit better at hockey than my Grandma.
What's clear after two weeks, six games, and a 2-3-1 record is that this team is too slow on forward, lacks offensive punch and doesn't grind or hit the way you would think a roster constructed in this way would.
If I take any positives out of this game, it's that Shane Doan is playing like he's ten years younger and Keith Yandle - despite one pretty ugly giveaway that by all rights should have made it 1-0 Wild in the first - continues to play extremely well. I'd actually say he's been superior to OEL so far this season. Mike Smith playing his best game of the season is also a positive.
I know this can still turn around - getting Hanzal back will help, the defense is good, and Smith, if he plays like he did last night, will all contribute to this being a competitive team, but it might not be enough. There are just too many guys playing too high in the lineup - Martin Erat is not recovering his scoring touch, not now, not ever - and they would be better off to start moving out the veterans now.
By being too beholden to the veterans on this team, the Coyotes are shooting themselves in the foot. Instead of learning what they have in guys like Lessio, Gaudet, et al. they are trying to force it with guys who - sure- maybe they've given a lot to the team, city and organization, but let's face it, they are just not that good.
Trade Doan. Now. He looks rejuvenated and today is the absolute peak on what his return will bring. Trade Vermette, same deal. Does someone need a goalie? Smith might good to trade too. Maybe Dubnyk can start, but it'd be good to see what we have in Jake Visentine.
The bottom line is this: the team can't win by catering to the vets and giving them the ice-time and opportunities they want and expect. Yes, Smith, Vermette and Doan probably have zero desire for a youth movement. So move them instead.
Best case scenario for this current roster: First round playoff matchup and 3 home dates against St.Louis, while being a rather run-of-the-mill team to cheer for.
Worst case scenario: 9th or 10th place and a mid-round pick.
If, however, they picked up some assets for their vets, they would have a chance at a franchise altering draft choice in the top-five of next years draft, be way more fun to watch, easier to cheer for and finally, most importantly, they'd learn what kind of players they have. Because, I'm sorry, you just don't know how Samuelsson is going to be in the NHL until he plays in the NHL. Also, a top five pick is worth a losing season. A pick between 5 and 15 really isn't.
Up next, the Panthers at home on Saturday. So that should be good, unless, that is, the Panthers youthful team skates the Coyotes into the ground, which isn't so unlikely as it might seem.
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