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Welcome to another edition of the Hockeybuzz hotstove.

With training camps opening league wide and preseason just a few days away, hockey is in the air.

As the regular season quickly approached, the hotstove will continue to preview what we'll see in the upcoming year.

In this edition of the hotstove we'll be predicting who will win the Selke award.

Todd Cordell: Travis Zajac

This pick will be considered off the board by the casual fan or someone who doesn't watch a lot of Devils hockey (most people), but those in the analytics community will suggest it's not as far fetched as it sounds.

I've been carrying Zajac's water for the better part of a few seasons now, because he's a guy who goes up against top competition every night and regularly defends against Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Alex Ovechkin, etc. yet he gets little credit.

Earlier this summer I looked at how Zajac's numbers stacked up with the three Selke finalists in 2013-14, and he was actually right there with Anze Kopitar, Patrice Bergeron and Jonathan Toews.



note: ES SCF% is even strength scoring chance for%.

As you can see, the only area Zajac really lagged behind is 5 vs 5 point production. Generally at least 60 points are required on top of the strong defensive work to be put into the conversation for Selke. With Mike Cammalleri, the NHL's 7th most efficient 5 vs 5 goal scorer last year, now in the mix and Jaromir Jagr on his other side, Zajac should be able to pick up his production offensively.

If he's able to do that, he'll be a legitimate candidate for the award.

Michael Stuart: Patrice Bergeron

I’m debating between two names here. Patrice Bergeron of the Boston Bruins and Anze Kopitar of the Los Angeles Kings are both supremely good two-way players. My gut tells me to give the edge to the former. Bergeron is my pick to take home the Selke Trophy this season.

People often remark that the Selke has become much less about pure defense and much more about who can produce offense without sacrificing defensive proficiency. Maybe that’s true. Still, I don’t think anyone can take away Bergeron’s title as one of the premier defensive forwards in the game today. Look at his superhuman possession numbers as evidence of that.

When Bergeron is out on the ice, the Bruins control the play. All the little things he does (i.e. the back-checking, the stick-checking, the battling, etc.) are reflected in the possession numbers. If you’re asking this blogger, the best type of defense is when you don’t let your opponent have the puck. That Bergeron manages to put up 60+ points on top of that is only a bonus for the Bruins.

Kopitar’s time will come, but I really do believe that Bergeron win the Selke for the second straight year.

Ryan Wilson: Patrice Bergeron

There are three guys that jump to the top of everybody's mind when discussing the Selke Trophy these days: Patrice Bergeron, Jonathan Toews, and Anze Kopitar. Sidney Crosby should be grouped in there as well but his offensive contributions will always over shadow his defensive prowess (especially last year in a shutdown role). I am picking Patrice Bergeron because his possession game is ridiculously good and he receives offensive zone starts in the 46% area. Toews was at 64% last year and Kopitar was at 54%, if these trends hold true Bergeron is used in a more classic defensive role. Since you are splitting hairs between each player's defensive ability, I'll go with the guy in the more defensive role. All candidates I have named are great.

Jan Levine: Derek Stepan

This past season, Patrick Bergeron won the Selke Trophy, which is awarded to "the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game." Of course, as we have seen in the past, just because you are great defensively, does not mean you will win the award. Solid offense is a contributing factor, as it helps with name recognition for the voters.

Recently, Pavel Datsyuk won the award. While he is phenomenal defensively, his offensive prowess didn't hurt him in the vote. The days of Bob Gainey or Guy Carbonneau winning the Selke based mainly or solely on his defensive prowess seems long gone. So what's my point? Mainly that while you need to be excellent defensively, balancing that with great offense is key to winning the Selke,

Why all the lead in to my vote? For those of us in New York, who have watched Derek Stepan since he as a rookie, we have raved about his defensive ability. Last year, he helped make up for the defensive deficiencies of Chris Kreider and aided Rick Nash in being better on that side of the ice. While Stepan may not have been as good as he was two years ago when NY was the top seed in the East, he still was pretty darn good.

This season, if he can be as good as he was two years ago but augments that by taking the next step up offensively, I think he has s good shot to be in the running. Bergeron is great, Datsyuk, if healthy, will be up there again, same with Toews and Kopitar, but what you see from those names, offensive ability helps drive the recognition of their defense. If Stepan can take that next step up in production and improve on faceoffs to close to 50%, it may get his D more notice, putting him in contention to win the award.

Matt Henderson: Patrice Bergeron

My unabashed man-crush on Patrice Bergeron will continue for another season when he wins the Selke this coming year. He is a Corsi genius in an age where Corsi is becoming a big part of the main stream. His biggest opponent is fellow Corsi Wizard Anze Kopitar but the edge, in my mind, goes to Bergeron who gets fewer Offensive Zone Starts and more Defensive Zone Starts. When I think of the best Defensive forward in the NHL my mind goes directly to Bergeron. Wonderful player.

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Predicting a couple surprise teams for 2014-15

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