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The data from this blog is from Corey Sznajder's amazing manual data tracking project.
You can choose to donate to Corey's project by clicking here. If you hit a certain donation level you too can have access to all of data he has charted to this point (~45-50 games).
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Last year the Pittsburgh Penguins had one of the worst bottom six forward groups amongst Stanley Cup contenders in the playoffs. The shortcomings of this forward group caused more responsibility to be thrust upon superstars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
Crosby and Malkin are amazing, but you can't just lean on two guys to prop up huge deficiencies in this day and age. All championship caliber teams have balance in their lineup, or at least way more balance than Pittsburgh had in 2013-14.
What are the root causes for this underachieving by the bottom six? Why were they so woefully bad?
The answers aren't really that complicated, they had minimal puck skills and most of them lacked foot speed as well. These are things we saw on a nightly basis.
Why rehash this stale narrative? Well I happen to have objective data that can put exact numbers on this groups' shortcomings. I can also show what the numbers look like for Pittsburgh's current personnel group heading into next year.
One big problem with the Penguins bottom six forwards last year was their inability to generate possession. They were consistently playing out of their own end. While this problem tends to lead people to focus on what happens in the defensive zone, I think there are other important areas of the ice where possession is won and lost.
One of the major areas where you can see the better players succeed and the lower end players fail is on zone entries.
Can your players consistently gain the offensive zone with full control of the puck? Or do your players find themselves more times than not in a situation to where they have to dump the puck in?
* To be clear I understand that every player will find themselves in a situation where dumping the puck in is the only option, but there is a big difference between that being the exception to the rule and it being the rule.
Here is the difference between carrying the puck in with possession on entry versus dumping the puck in
There is a big difference here in a team's ability to generate offense between the two approaches to zone entry. You can probably guess where the rest of this blog is headed.
It is time to see how individual players who were with the Penguins bottom six last year performed, as well as their new additions for the 2014-15 season:
These numbers include the first ~45-50 games of the 2013-14 season. For the players who weren't with the Penguins the entire season, the data from their former teams is included as well (Goc, Stempniak, Pyatt, Comeau, Downie, and Spaling).
You can see why under the radar trades such as Stempniak and Goc were much needed last year. Those two players immediately became two of the better bottom six options in successful zone entries. It is also probably why they were leaned on to fill voids in the top six at various times last year.
Our eyes all told us that players like Adams, Glass, Pyatt, and Vitale were not getting the job done. This data objectively shows how far away they are from doing a respectable job. Keep in mind that Tanner Glass actually earned a three year contract this past offseason that pays him above the league minimum.
Also, for those hoping that Zach Sill can be an option which will bring positive improvement from last year, he looks more like Craig Adams Jr. and expectations should be extremely tempered.
A new front office regime has brought changes to the Penguins bottom six group for the 2014-15 season. General Manager Jim Rutherford brought in new players Nick Spaling, Blake Comeau, and Steve Downie while retaining Marcel Goc and Brandon Sutter. Craig Adams, Jayson Megna, Zach Sill and Beau Bennett remain holdovers.
The good news for Pittsburgh is that they shredded three of the underachieving players from the roster for next season (Glass, Pyatt, Vitale).
The bad news is that Stempniak is no longer with the team despite his incredibly low contract demands (1 year 700k NYR) . Brian Gibbons was a competent player in gaining zone entries, he too would have been a cheap option (550k two way deal CBJ) for Pittsburgh to keep around in their bottom six.
Interesting to note is that Brandon Sutter and Marcel Goc have similar numbers. This is
just another example of the two players being close in value despite their differences in cap hits.
Did the moves Pittsburgh made this offseason put them in a better spot to improve upon their low zone entry success rate from 2013-14?
Pittsburgh's zone entry success percentage for the bottom six as whole was 42.1% in 2013-14.
The bottom six options who are currently in the Penguins organization for 2014-15 have a group percentage of 41.3%.
A big reason for the slight drop off are the losses of Stempniak and Gibbons. Losing Glass, Pyatt, and Vitale was a step in the right direction, but losing Stempniak and Gibbons could be considered a step backwards. Steve Downie, Blake Comeau, and Nick Spaling all find themselves in the middle grouping of players. They are all better at zone entries than the very low end players, but are not better than Stempniak and Gibbons.
Basically the 2014-15 potential bottom six eliminated the higher end and lower end players and will enter the year in a middle ground. The 2014-15 numbers could take another drastic hit if Beau Bennett is pulled into regular top six duty, which is a realistic possibility given the lack of top six winger depth.
This is where the loss of a player like Jussi Jokinen really hurts the Penguins. By having another top six winger the Penguins would have benefited from the trickle-down effect. Either Beau Bennett or Pascal Dupuis would be able to greatly improve the bottom six forward grouping. As it stands now both players will likely be in the top six.
The Penguins do have a chance to benefit from the trickle-down effect, albeit a long shot. If Kasperi Kapanen were able to make the team it would allow Pittsburgh to drop down either Dupuis or Bennett.
If Kapanen cannot make the leap to the NHL this season the Penguins will have to figure something out. Even though the Penguins have been applauded for adding value depth players, their overall impact is still probably not enough to get the Penguins to a championship caliber level.
Zone entries by the bottom six forward group is one area where Pittsburgh needs to see improvement on in 2014-15. The status quo from last year is not good enough. The more players that can successfully gain the offensive blue line with control, the more offense that will be generated and that means less offense that Crosby and Malkin will be required to generate. Sid and Geno need help, they can only do so much.
Could the Penguins coaching change from Dan Bylsma to Mike Johnston assist in making some of these numbers better? Yes, there is certainly the potential for that. Whether the numbers improve by player personnel changes or changes in coaching philosophy the fact remains the numbers need to improve.
This will be something to keep a keen eye on as the season progresses.
Thanks for reading!
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