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I have a few quick thoughts about NHL expansion.
It is coming, there is no way around it, the NHL will be expanding by at least two teams. There are markets that are hungry for it.
The immediate reaction is that it will further dilute an already diluted product. There is some truth to that but not to the extreme people think. If the NHL moves to a 32 team league there really shouldn't be too noticeable a difference. You are talking about 30 more forwards, 16 more defensemen, and six more goalies in the league. There are plenty of guys buried in the AHL that probably deserve more of a shot than they have been given. With the rise of analytics more teams will see just how useless the Colton Orr's, Frazer McLaren's , John Scott's, Craig Adam's, and Tanner Glass' etc... of the world are. With information becoming more mainstream I think the quality of players that are targeted will lead to better players in the league. Will some teams still employ anchors on their team? Sure, but the ratio won't be any worse in my opinion.
If you are a fan of a team that has the resources to spend to the cap ceiling you should be for expansion.
I personally draw the line at two expansion teams. Four teams is overkill and unnecessary. You can always relocate the bottom rung teams over time and put them in more desirable markets. It is a last resort kind of strategy, but it does exist. If the current ownership in Florida puts forth a real solid effort and still comes up short they may be one of those teams that could be in the discussion of relocating. The drama in Phoenix always seems to lend itself to relocating, something I think that is long overdue.
The players may not receive a cent from the expansion fees (which should go above 1 billion) because it falls outside of hockey related revenue (HRR), but over the long term they will certainly benefit from the added jobs which should lead to better job security in the league. Also HRR will increase with expansion teams through ticket sales, merchandise, etc... This will positively impact the players (and owners).
Las Vegas could be an opportunity for the NHL to do something revolutionary that their other major sports counterparts haven't done. It is rare for the NHL to be able to say something like that. The crowds will most likely be blasé because it will be dominated by tourists, but a team in Vegas would never have to worry about corporate sponsorship which is one of the biggest variables in acquiring a team. They already have an arena in place with NHL capacity.
I really like Seattle as a market. The Pacific Northwest really enjoys their junior hockey but the only NHL teams in the area are San Jose and Vancouver. That leaves a fairly large void in between. Problem here is that there is no arena and as of this moment it is not on an aggressive path to become reality.
Quebec City is building an arena, they will have tons of fan support and mostly all NHL fans agree that they should get a team back. Problem here is that the conferences are already unbalanced. You can't really put another team in the East until you put some more in the West.
Toronto can handle another team and I think it is a great idea to put another team in that market, even if they have to share the ACC. If the New York City metro area can have three teams, Toronto can most certainly have two. Once again the problem is finding a balanced number of teams in both conferences. If the league wants to expand to 32 teams in a business move, why not maximize the business investment? A second Toronto team would print money much like the Leafs do.
Kansas City seems like the dark horse candidate in all of this. They do have a beautiful new arena, but no NHL or NBA tenant. Previously, Kansas City was used as a pawn by Mario Lemieux to successfully gain enough leverage in an effort to build the Consol Energy Center. The NHL failed once before in Kansas City but that didn't stop the league from trying Atlanta again.
In a nutshell if the league expands to 32 teams you really shouldn't see a discernable difference in the quality of play. Up that to four teams and I think it is a real problem. Not to mention 4 divided by 34 isn't a clean number for balanced divisions/conferences.
Like it or lump it, expansion will be here. Let's just hope they keep it to two teams and pick very successful locations.
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Brand new Hockey Hurts podcast is up for your listening pleasure. We touch on expansion in more detail, discuss some of the new hires by Toronto and Edmonton, and try to figure out just what the hell the Sharks are doing with Joe Thornton. Click
here
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