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Flyers 2014 First-Day Live Draft Blog |
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HEXTALL: WE TRIED SEVERAL TIMES TO MOVE UP (10:30 PM EDT)
Flyers general manager Ron Hextall just got finished speaking to the media about the Flyers' selection of Travis Sanheim with the 17th overall pick.
I asked him if the way Sanheim got better and better over the course of the season made him someone the team ranked higher than some players (I didn't mention him by name but had Roland McKeown in mind as an example) who started the season with much more hype but may have stagnated or even went backward a bit from where they were initially expected to be by the end of the season.
"It's a matter of feel," said Hextall. He added that when determining upside one of the things the team considers is how much bigger, stronger and refined the player can become from season to season. If the same players drafted this year got ranked again next December, the list would undoubtedly look different.
Hextall said that the Flyers talked to several teams in recent days about trading up in the first round. He would not specifically comment on the rampant rumors of the team trying to trade with Florida for the first overall pick, but that is a moot issue at this point since no deal was made.
The Flyers general manager also said the team had offers to move down, including one that came just before they made the Sanheim pick.
At the end of the interview session, I asked if the Flyers will be targeting some of the forwards who fell out of the first round (such as Ivan Barbashev, Ryan MacInnis, Ryan Donato or perhaps even Brendan Lemieux).
"We are looking for the best available players still but, yes, I want to come out of this Draft with some forwards," he said.
Asked if the Flyers might try to jump up in the second round, Hextall sounded doubtful that was in the offing right now.
FLYERS SELECT SANHEIM WITH 17TH OVERALL PICK (9:00 PM EDT)
With the 17th overall pick of the first round, the Flyers selected Calgary Hitmen (WHL) defenseman Travis Sanheim.
The Flyers took a long time to come up to the podium. It was possible they were thinking of trading down -- most likely, they had Sanheim as the best available player at that point with the forwards they preferred the most off the board. Ultimately, they made the Sanheim pick.
Scouts crave "the four S" attributes in a defense prospect: size, speed, skill, and hockey sense. Shortly after the Flyers made the pick, Flyers scouting director Chris Pryor texted me that it is fair to say Sanheim has the potential to have all four of those attributes.
The speed is already there. The size should be as he fills out his still lanky 6-foot-3 frame, The hockey sense appears to be above-average. The skill level is the area that opened eyes in the second half of this past season as he gained confidence, but he has the tools to be a two-way defenseman.
Asked what made the difference over the course of the season, Sanheim said, "Just confidence. I played with confidence and did more things with the puck. That’s what you need to do to be successful in the Western Hockey League, and I felt like I did that in the second half."
Sanheim played very well for Team Canada at the Under-18 World Championships, which helped further propel him up some teams' final rankings.
"It was huge. I think I opened up a lot of scouts eyes and showed that I was capable of playing at the top level against the best kids in my age group. I showed that I could be one of the top guys and be relied upon in all situations, so it was a good tournament for me," said Sanheim.
This is what I wrote about Sanheim in my June 5 blog:
The 2014 NHL Draft may not have as many highly touted names as last year's crop of talent, but that by no means makes this a subpar year for NHL prospects. Every year, it is common to hear that, beyond the top few picks of the first round, there really isn't much of a difference between the projected ceilings of most of the players chosen in the top 40 to 50 picks.
That does not mean, of course, that no one thinks there will be breakout stars beyond the top couple picks or that some players will develop into NHL regulars while others will not. Likewise, it does not mean there won't be some pleasant surprises (or even a future star or two) to emerge from the later rounds.
What it means is that every team will have its own internal rankings of prospects that could, on the surface, differ widely from what other teams and Central Scouting produces. One team may have a player in its top 10 whereas another organization has the same player 35th and Central Scouting has him 15th on its North American/European list. The rankings vary widely but the disparities in the actual evaluations are usually subtle ones.
For example, in his most recent Draft-related podcast on TSN, former Calgary Flames general manager Craig Button opined that this year's draft could prove to be a rather deep one in terms of players who go on to become NHL regulars for a number of years. He added that he had puzzled over whom to leave off of his personal top 60 and top 100 rankings for TSN this year, whereas that is not is the case in other years.
One of the biggest late-risers in the 2014 NHL Draft class is Calgary Hitmen (WHL) defenseman Travis Sanheim. Although he doesn't get much notice among those who rely primarily on Central Scouting's ratings to determine the top prospects in each year's Draft class, the 53rd-ranked North American skater is very much on the radar screen of NHL teams to the point that it would not be much of a surprise -- or a reach by the team that selects him -- if he is taken in the first round of this year's Draft. Even in the Central Scouting ratings, Sanheim rose with a bullet from his mid-term (167th) to final ranking.
Sanheim reportedly met with all 30 NHL teams at the recent Combine. A team not meeting with a player is not necessarily due to a lack of interest (for instance, the Flyers did not meet with Sean Couturier in 2011 but selected him with the eighth overall pick). However, when a team does meet with a player, they do so because they like something about the player on the ice and want to find out a little more about him.
In Sanheim's case, the odds are pretty good that even teams that were simply doing a little extra due diligence on the player but have early first-round picks would consider taking him if they were to acquire an additional pick later in the round. If he makes it to the second round, Sanheim is a strong potential candidate to be taken by the first team that does not have a higher-ranked player on their internal list fall to them.
Sanheim fits the profile of the type of defenseman that NHL teams look for nowadays. He has a 6-foot-3 frame that still needs to fill out a bit but also has good wheels and two-way upside.
An untouted first-year WHL player, Sanheim kept things very simple early in the season. He posted three points through the first 21 games of the season as he focused mainly on positional play. His physical profile, skating and first-pass ability along with his general reliability in his own zone were sufficient to get him the 167th spot on the Central Scouting mid-term list.
Thereafter, Sanheim got increasingly comfortable and started to assert himself offensively. As his role grew into that of all-situations player, Sanheim's point totals rose steadily. Paired with fellow 2014 Draft prospect Ben Thomas, Sanheim finished the season with five goals, 29 points and a plus-25 ranking.
Sanheim also made a strong final impression on NHL scouts. Once again paired with Thomas, he had a very strong Under-18 World Championships tournament for Canada, posting six assists and a plus five rating in seven games while also taking care of business in his own of the ice.
Travis' twin brother, Taylor, is a forward whose WHL rights belong to the Brandon Wheat Kings. He was limited to nine games -- all at the Junior A level -- this season. In the meantime, Travis shot up the charts among NHL scouts. The Sanheim twins turned 18 on March 29.
Travis Sanheim's rapid development this season, which was partially hastened by an injury to Hitmen captain Jaynen Rissling (a Washington Capitals prospect), was remarkable. Rather than being a "reach" of a first-round Draft candidate, he may actually be a fairly safe pick relative to the inherent risks of drafting defensemen and nurturing them through their learning curve.
Does Sanheim currently project as a franchise defenseman in the NHL? No, and he may not be a number two, either. He's going to have to get stronger physically and become more assertive.
However, assuming that he continues developing and stays healthy, Sanheim has all the tools to become the type of two-way defenseman that moves the puck efficiently, join the play on offense and provide containment-style coverage in his own zone without being outmuscled by the league's big, strong forwards. He has a lot of offensive upside, too, as he showed as the season moved along. Those players are highly desirable.
Players like Sanheim will never be "sexy" draft picks when they lacked eye-catching point totals in their draft year. However, he fits the profile of many long-tenured NHL defensemen when they were his age. That is not a guarantee of an NHL career but he's off to a good start in the pre-Draft phase of his development.
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CALM BEFORE THE STORM (7:45 AM EDT)
For the first time in NHL history, Philadelphia is the host city for the NHL Draft. The first round of the 2014 NHL Draft will take place tonight, with rounds two to seven being held tomorrow.
The Flyers own the following picks in the Draft:
Round 1 - 17th overall pick
Round 2 - 48th overall pick
Round 3 - 86th overall pick (acquired from Boston in the Andrej Meszaros trade)
Round 4 - None
Round 5 - 138th overall
Round 6 - 168th overall
Round 7 - 198th overall
Apart from the Draft selections over the weekend, the NHL Draft is always a time in which a flurry of trade discussions go on and some come to fruition before and during the Draft. With the start of free agency season kicking off on Tuesday, NHL teams are also very busy sizing up potential signings.
Over the course of the next two days, I will update my blogs frequently whenever there is something Flyers-related of note. I will start a separate Day Two blog tomorrow morning.
This early morning has been the calm before the storm. The weather, however, is gorgeous.
Yesterday, I exchanged a text with Flyers scouting director Chris Pryor. He said that it is "fair to say" that the big reason this year's draft crop is considered an average one is three-fold.
1) The crop of available forwards has no shortage of players with high-level skills. However, many of them have question marks about size and/or at least one major aspect of their total games or makeup.
2) The pool of defensemen is thin. Scouts look for defensemen with the four S's: size, speed, skill, and hockey sense. The more elements that are in place, the higher the projected upside. Beyond Aaron Ekblad, there are few defensemen who have demonstrated that they already have all of the aforementioned attributes. Every one else is either undersized and/or questionable in at least one other area -- and not even Ekblad is a slam dunk to blossom into the elusive "franchise defenseman" that every team in the NHL covets.
The Draft prospect defensemen who do have both the size and speed are either raw in their skills or questionable in their poise and/or reads. Those who have speed, skill and sense are lacking in size; Julius Honka being a prime example. The ones with the best pure skills in the draft, Anthony DeAngelo, has size and other highly publicized issues surrounding him (although some hockey people insist the "character" issue with DeAngelo is highly exaggerated and will not be a problem as he matures).
3) Goalie drafting is always a roll of the dice because of the extremely lengthy learning curve that most goalies undergo. Even some top NHL goalies did not mature into such until their mid-20s and some even in their late 20s. Beyond Thatcher Demko, this year's goalie crop is typically raw and assessments of their upside is highly speculative.
Size and athleticism are the raw materials that NHL scouts look for nowadays in goaltenders. In the current era, smaller goaltender had better be very advanced and polished at a young age to even get a sniff at an NHL future.
So there you have the framework for this year's Draft: In talking to scouts from four different NHL teams, the long-term expectation is that there will be a fair number of solid hits (perhaps even a home run or two) but there could also be a high volume of strikeouts.
I asked a scout from another organization if the heightened risk factor in this year's draft class could wind of elevating some of the "safer" picks in the Draft -- players with reasonable floors as two-way third-line forwards or as number four to six defensemen -- in the Draft. He said yes, depending on a team's risk-tolerance level for the upside of the alternatives.
For example, forwards Jared McCann and Connor Bleackley fit the mold of being rather safe picks. Is it tougher to use that terms for defensemen because they have a longer learning curve as pros, but Haydn Fleury and Travis Sanheim seem to be relatively safe picks who are still on the upswing in their development.
Personally, I consider Dylan Larkin and Adrian Kempe to be among the safer potential non top-10 picks in this year's Draft. There are some NHL scouts who question their ceilings, but I have not spoken to anyone who fears major risk of either being an outright bust.
I have seen Kempe play more than any other prospect in this year's draft. That's because I regularly watched online streams of Modo games; primarily for the purpose of watching 2013 second-round pick Robert Hägg but also to see how draft prospects Kempe and William Nylander (who shuttled around between Allsvenskan and the SHL) were coming along. I ended up seeing Kempe play about 20 times.
I have to be honest: I was more impressed by Kempe than Nylander. Keep in mind that Kempe is the youngest likely first-round pick in this year's Draft, born just two days ahead of the birthday cutoff for eligibility for 2014. The Hockey News' quoted scout comparison of Kempe to Magnus Pääjärvi was way off the mark from my observations. I saw a style much more reminiscent of retired former Flyers forward Mikael Renberg. Kempe is not afraid to get his nose dirty along the walls and go to the net. He also protects the puck quite well and plays what THN accurately described as a "heavy" game.
As Kempe matures physically, I think he will wind up playing at similar size to Renberg (who had about the same physical makeup as Kempe as a teenage player). Kempe actually has better pure speed than Rennie did, and Renberg was no slouch in the skating department. Before a series of major injuries hurt his effectiveness, Renberg may have had a better natural scoring touch than Kempe but there really isn't a huge gap that could not be made up. That is especially true in light of the fact that Kempe has already shown he can score some goals at the SHL level despite being relegated to fourth-line duty as a 17-year-old with Modo.
As for Larkin, he is the most complete player of the USNTDP trio that also includes Sonny Milano and Alex Tuch. Tuch is also a relatively safe pick, with excellent size and enough skill to play in the NHL but does not appear to have top-notch hands or creativity. Milano is a riskier puck because he undersized and somewhat undisciplined on the ice but has very high-level puck skills and finishing ability. Larkin is a balanced all-around talent who conducts himself with unusual maturity on and off the ice.
*****
I got back into town yesterday after a nightmarish return trip from Texas. I was originally supposed to get in on Wednesday evening. Due to severe thunderstorm in the Dallas area and a five-hour flight delay from Tyler, TX to Dallas, I ended up having to spend Wednesday night at DFW Airport.
The terminal was like a makeshift shelter for stranded travelers, with people sleeping on cots. Before going to "bed" for a couple hours, I wrote yesterday's Flyers blog for HockeyBuzz. When I finally landed back in my hometown, I almost felt like kissing the ground!
I headed straight to the Wells Fargo Center from the PHL Airport, retrieving my press credentials from the NHL-run trailer outside the arena. By retrieving my press pass a day early, I avoided the long and slow-moving line there will be today. Last year in Newark, it took an hour from the time I got in line to the time I stepped out of the trailer.
My most memorable NHL Press Trailer experience happened during the 2010 Stanley Cup Finals between the Flyers and Blackhawks. As long as it took for me to get a photo taken (now that the NHL has one on file, I can skip that step) and get my pass printed, it took poor Bill Barber even longer. He was there already in the credential trailer when I stepped in and was still there when I left.
The Hockey Hall of Famer, whose retired number hangs in the rafters of the Wells Fargo Center, somehow had his name accidentally omitted from the NHL's admittance list even though Barber still did work for the Flyers. He stood around patiently as NHL employees and an intern worked on straightening things out.
Let's put it this way: There is something amiss when Bill Barber has to wait longer than Bill Meltzer for the NHL to admit him to a Stanley Cup Final game. That would be true anywhere but especially in the city where Barber played a key role in bringing two Stanley Cups as a player and was later a Jack Adams Award winning head coach.
If Barber wasn't such a humble and unassuming man -- let's say, he was a Hall of Fame baseball player instead of hockey player -- he might have said something like "Look up in the rafters of the arena. There's my [bleeping] admission pass!" Of course he didn't. He just stood around while assorted anonymous people such as myself got their passes faster and went on their way.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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