FLYERS SHOULD AVOID KESLER TEMPTATION
* Last night, TSN
reported that Vancouver Canucks center Ryan Kesler still wants out of Vancouver despite the front-office and coaching changes. That would be contingent on a trade being worked out with a team for which Kesler is willing to play. Darren Dreger said that is believed Kesler still has six teams on his list and the Flyers and Anaheim are among the teams. Pierre LeBrun said Vancouver's trading price remains quite high -- they want NHL roster players in return -- and Bob McKenzie added that teams are more likely to pursue Kesler than the reportedly available Jason Spezza.
My view: I hope is that Flyers general manager Ron Hextall steers clear of such a trade unless something could be worked out where Vancouver takes Vincent Lecavalier as part of the deal. I simply don't see that happening.
I would not be in favor of seeing the Flyers offer up Brayden Schenn as the lure to acquire Kesler. That would be exactly the type of trade that Hextall stressed several times at his introductory press conference that he would NOT make unless he felt the team could be put over the top by trading young players and/or high end Draft picks for an established veteran who is considerably older and more expensive on the salary cap.
While Kesler is still in his prime at age 29, he is now three seasons removed from his stellar 2010-11 season when he played at a superstar level the entire year. Kesler has had some serious injury setbacks in his recent past and has not looked nearly as energetic and effective for quite some time. He looks like an "old" 29, and the 43 points Kesler produced in 2013-14 were just two more than Schenn (at age 22) produced this year in his third NHL season.
Back in 2006, the Flyers signed a then-unproven Kesler to a $1.9 million offer sheet as a restricted free agent. At the time, Kesler was experiencing growing pains in his early NHL career and Flyers GM Bob Clarke rolled the dice in the event that Vancouver was frustrated with the progress of their former first-round pick.
Despite the annoyance at giving Kesler more of a raise than they were prepared to offer at the time, Vancouver quickly matched the offer sheet to retain the player. The reasons both for the offer sheet and the match became evident within the next few years: Kesler blossomed into a complete player who also grated on opponent's nerves.
Even though the offer sheet did not work, the Flyers were wise to try and pounce on Kesler when he was in the upward cycle of his development. Eight years later, acquiring Kesler would mean overpaying in trade and tolerating a fair amount of risk that he never has another season that remotely approaches his career year.
Also, while Kesler has played wing as well as center and versatility is a positive, the Flyers need to stop playing so many natural centers out of position. Former GM and new club president Paul Holmgren recently opined that it is "easy" for a natural center to play wing, but that has often not proven to be the case.
At the top of his game, Kesler would bring qualities that the Flyers want to add to the lineup. But when will Kesler be back at the top of his game again, and how much risk is there in depleting depth and potentially not filling other needs relative to the likelihood of reaping the reward that a strong bounceback season would bring?
In my opinion, the drawbacks and risks right now outweigh the potential payoff.
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WILL KAPANEN DROP IN DRAFT?
Over the course of the last year, KalPa Kuopio right winger Kasperi Kapanen has consistently been hyped as one of the top 10 prospects for the 2014 NHL Draft. He was ranked as the top European prospect (among those playing this season in Europe) by Central Scouting in both their mid-term and final lists.
Nevertheless, it is not a slam dunk that Kapanen will taken within the top 10 picks of a Draft. There is always a certain degree of volatility in the actual draft selection order -- even within the top 10 -- and there is a lot of parity in this year's Draft crop. There is an abundance of solid prospects but few players who have demonstrated superstar-caliber upside to this point in their young careers.
Kapanen probably will not be taken within the first six or seven of the Draft, which will be held at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. Thereafter he could go at any time or just as easily could tumble. Once a player starts to drop on Draft day, all bets are off on how many teams bypass him until his name is called. That is because teams keep their own internal rankings and all it takes is for one available player's name to be higher on a club's given list. Additionally, the gradations are usually subtle ones even if the ranking spots vary widely.
It is not far-fetched to imagine a scenario in which Kapanen falls to the middle or even latter stages of the first round -- the although it is equally possible that his name is called early. If he does somehow make it down to the 17th spot, the Draft-hosting Philadelphia Flyers will have an interesting and difficult decision to make.
The Flyers would not take Kapanen solely because his father, Sami, was a popular and highly respected player for the team and Kasperi lived locally for a time while growing up. If they were to select him, it would be because he's the best available player, according to the consensus of Chris Pryor's scouting staff, Pryor himself and general manager Ron Hextall. That may or may not be the case, depending on how the first 16 picks would shake out. Again, it only takes one available name to be ranked higher for the team to go with someone else.
Three Reasons why Kapanen might NOT drop
1. Long-range outlook. One thing that separates professional scouts from armchair ones and pundits is that the better pro scouts do not look first at a player's statistics from the past season. They also don't go solely on what the player did in a given game, playoff series or international tournament.
Rather, they start with the player's skill set, physical profile and as much reliable information as they can glean on his mental makeup and character and then try to project how those will mature over the next three to five years. In many cases, they have been tracking the player over multiple years of pre-Draft development.
Kasperi Kapanen did not have a dominating 2013-14 season, even against his same-age international peers at the U18 World Championships. Nevertheless, the reason why Central Scouting -- and the NHL team that eventually selects him -- had him so on on their list all year was that they are projecting him favorably in the big picture.
Kapanen has a strong natural skill level and good speed. He already plays among grown men in the SM-liiga (although the caliber of that league has significantly slipped in recent years) and does not look out of place. Even last year, at age 16, he clearly belonged at the Finnish pro level. Add to that the fact that he has character and work ethic reminiscent of his father -- who was and still is off the charts in those qualities -- and you get the basis for arguing that he will be better than most of this Draft class when you take his development out over multiple years.
2. Qualities that cannot be taught. Kapanen is an undersized player, although not quite as small as his father. While it is dangerous to focus too much on bloodlines, there are instantly recognizable similarities between Kasperi and Sami in terms of innate hockey sense and competitiveness.
Sami could compete effectively against much bigger players because he had superior hockey sense, work ethic and never gave up on a play. Furthermore, he cared only about his team and about winning. Nothing else mattered, and that was why Kapanen's value to his teams always exceeded his offensive statistics. Kasperi has those same traits.
As with the elder Kapanen, Kasperi makes smart plays and takes good routes to the puck on top of having good speed. He grasps systems, and knows how to play to the score and situation. He will never be the biggest or strongest physically. He doesn't have the most explosive shot. But he is a smart and competitive player who has the potential to win a lot of the little battles that go into winning hockey games. He has two-way upside, especially over the long term.
3. High floor and respectable ceiling. Kapanen is one of the safer picks in this year's draft, despite his lack of size and underwhelming WJC and SM-liiga offensive season. A worst-case scenario for him if he stays healthy is that he might develop into a useful bottom-six NHL forward along the lines of the New York Rangers' Carl Hagelin or, yes, Sami Kapanen in the latter stages of his NHL career.
That's a mighty high projectable development floor for a 17-year-old player. Meanwhile, Kapanen has the skill ceiling of someday developing into a top-six NHL forward. A year ago, some scouts were saying his ceiling was of a bonafide first-line NHL player. That has been downgraded a tad to a ceiling of a top-six forward. Combined with the other qualities he can bring, that would still be a nice return on investment that justifies a first-round selection.
Three Reasons why Kapanen might drop
1. He's Finnish but can he finish? Kapanen may not have true "home run" potential as an offensive player for two reasons. The more significant of the two reasons, which was evident this season both in what has become a mediocre SM-liiga and at the U18 Worlds, is that Kapanen can sometimes struggle to finish scoring chances.
This is not just a matter of lacking an overpowering shot, although Kapanen has been known to shoot muffins. It is the quickness of the shot release and the movement on the shot that matter more than the sheer velocity. Kapanen's release seems to be fine but, in limited viewing of watching him play, he seemed to put a lot of them right into the goalie's chest or pads or else miss the net. He also seems to get a lot of seemingly open shots blocked. Incidentally, unlike his lefthanded-shooting father, Kasperi shoots righthanded.
The other reason why Kapanen's scoring prowess may not be of elite caliber is that he is sometimes prone to making an extra pass rather than shooting the puck. That is an age-old criticism of many European players and, to some extent, the (largely positive) stereotype of the hard-working and team-oriented Finnish player who is unselfish to a fault is an accurate description of this player.
On the flip side, Kapanen is good on breakaways and can score opportunistic goals either on the forehand or backhand. He is also good at working the puck past defenders. Kapanen shields the puck well and accelerates quickly to find daylight.
2. Undersized players are prone to dropping minus a significant skill disparity. If Kapanen were 6-foot-1 with the aforementioned pros and cons, I think the chances of him dropping out of the top 10 of the Draft would be lower. As a 5-foot-10 player in a Draft year with so much parity of talent, the chance that a physically bigger and stronger player may edge him out by a spot or two on teams' rankings. How many teams? That remains to be seen.
There is no real concern that Kapanen will be one of those European-trained players who struggles to adapt to the smaller rink. That is not just because his father was a good NHL player and Kasperi lived over here for part of his life. More importantly, he has the hockey sense and work ethic to play in any system or style.
3. The over-exposure effect: Kapanen has been on NHL scouts' radar screens for quite a few years. Even by age 15, he was being touted as a future NHL player with the potential to someday match or even exceed his father's NHL career. Keep in mind that Sami was a former NHL All-Star who had a 69-point season and cracked the 20-goal mark five straight years during the heyday of the clutch-and-grab, neutral zone trapping era.
What tends to happen with heavily scouted players is that familiarity starts to breed second-guessing. The flaws get focused on to a higher degree, especially if the player's Draft year is something less than spectacular. The shine wears off and suddenly there are other other players that narrow the gap, catch up or even surpass (whether temporarily or permanently) the kid who well ahead of them a year or two earlier.
From Central Scouting's perspective, Kapanen and the equally long-awaited William Nylander were still able to edge out the others to hang onto their top two preseason spots in both the midterm and final rankings. NHL teams may or may not agree in their internal rankings.
With all due respect to a fellow HockeyBuzz blogger, who deemed Kapanen's top Central Scouting rating a laughable product of his bloodlines and called his season "disastrous", there are plenty of legitimate reasons why he occupied that spot.
Vladimir Ruzicka Jr. entered the 2006-07 season touted as a likely top-two European list player and a probable high-end first-round pick in the NHL Draft. Like Kapanen, he had the hockey pedigree and famous surname going for him. He, too, had been considered something of a prodigy well ahead of his draft year. Unlike Kapanen, Ruzicka even had a huge frame working in his favor.
What happened? Ruzicka had a TRULY disastrous season and plummeted in the rankings throughout his Draft year. He looked slow, unmotivated and proved to be over his head against adult pros. In the actual 2007 NHL Draft, Ruzicka dropped all the way to the fourth round before Phoenix selected him.
That same year, Angelo Esposito entered the season in the pole position to be the top-ranked North American player and most pegged him as the probable first overall pick. He, too, had a truly disastrous season and both his final rankings (8th on the North American list) and eventual Draft spot (20th overall) reflected it.
Both Ruzicka and Esposito proved to be one-dimensional players; and since neither were putting up points at nearly the anticipated pace, were often utterly useless and dowright lazy players. Kapanen, on the other hand, is NOT a one-dimensional talent and to call his season disastrous is way out of line with reality.
The scouts I have spoken with said that Kapanen continued his across-the-bard development and there is a comfort level that he has the tools to be a good pro who contributes in a variety of ways. Even though it would have nice if his offensive development took a leap this year instead of baby steps, he was already starting from a good place and remains a top prospect.
Kasperi Kapanen could end up being drafted long before the Flyers' turn comes up at 17th overall. He could also conceivably slip to the later stages. Once that is done, all that matters is what the player does in the years to come. His surname, Central Scouting rating and final Draft position won't shield him. The fact that Kapanen seems fully prepared to work for his keep no matter where he is drafted bodes well.
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COMPENSATORY MESZAROS PICK LIKELY TO BE A THIRD-ROUNDER
When the Flyers traded defenseman Andrej Meszaros to the Boston Bruins at the trade deadline, they received a conditional 2014 Draft pick. The default pick acquired would be the Bruins' third-round pick (86th overall). There was also a series of conditions whereby the Flyers would instead receive Boston's second-round pick (56th overall).
Most of these conditions have since gone by the wayside: The Bruins did not reach the Eastern Conference Finals and Meszaros only dressed in four playoff games (he would have had to dress in at least two-thirds of Boston's postseason games).
The only remaining possibility for getting the 56th overall pick would be if the Bruins were to re-sign impending unrestricted free agent Meszaros to a new contract before the NHL Draft. In all likelihood, that will not happen. Boston was not satisfied with Meszaros' overall play despite the five points in he posted in 14 regular season games and two assists in four playoff tilts.
Boston probably will not re-sign Meszaros at all. As such, the final condition of the trade (if the Bruins re-sign Meszaros for next season at some point after the Draft, the Flyers would pick up the Bruins' 2015 fourth-round pick in addition to the 2014 third round pick).
In addition to likely picking up the 86th overall pick of the draft, the Flyers own the 17th (first round), 48th (second round), 138th (fifth round), 168th (sixth round) and 198th (seventh round) selections.
The Flyers do not hold their own third round or fourth round picks in this year's Draft. Both are now held by the New York Islanders. The third rounder went to New York (along with a 2015 second rounder) in the Andrew MacDonald deal. The fourth round pick was traded in the Mark Streit deal last June.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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