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Mr. Smyth goes to Long Island + Spinning PMB and Wednesday Thoughts

March 1, 2007, 12:11 AM ET [ Comments]

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Fresh Smyth of Uniondale *

Now this is the story all about how
My life got flipped turned upside down
And I'd like to take a minute just sit right there
I'll tell you how I because the prince of a town called Uniondale

In Western Alberta born and raised
On the ice rink is where I spent most of my days
Chilling out, passing, skating in the mall
And all shooting some pucks inside of Rexall
When a contract offer came I said "it's not that good"
Started making trouble in negotiations
I turned down one little offer and my GM got scared
And said "you're moving with Marc-Andre Bergeron and Poti in Uniondale"

I whistled for a cab and when it came near the
License plate said "Wang" and had a 15-year contract on the mirror
If anything I could say that this team was rare
But I thought now forget it, yo home to Uniondale
I pulled up to the arena about seven or eight
And I yelled to the GM "Yo Snow good to see ya"
Looked at my kingdom I was finally there
To settle my throne as the prince on Uniondale.

******************

PROLOGUE


(If you don't feel like reading more about Smyth, I'd suggest scrolling down for a while to get to the game thoughts.)

Earlier today on this very site I saw that Mr. Tencer write that greed is the main reason that Ryan Smyth is no longer an Oiler. I respect his opinion but I'm going to have to disagree.

Smyth was the Oilers' leading goal scorer for the last four seasons, and in six of the last seven years. He was the face of the franchise and should have been an Oiler for life. Here are three reasons why Ryan is no longer in Edmonton:


1. When the Oilers were handing out cash left and right this summer, they neglected their best player.

2. Smyth has played for significantly less than his market value for most of his career. He was not rewarded for that.

3. When the time came to get the deal done, Edmonton wouldn't step up and give Smyth what he wanted/deserved, based on fair market value.



The Oilers offered $27 mil. Smyth wanted $28.5. This was about respect and both sides dug in. I truly don't believe that the Smyth camp thought he would be dealt if he didn't accept the $27 mil. This was a deal that could have and should have gotten done.

There will be many who read this and think that all players are vastly overpaid and that Smyth should have been happy with whatever he was offered. Afterall, none of us can fathom making that kind of money. But this isn't a debate about whether hockey players are overpaid.

This was a story about respect, rewarding loyalty and paying market value for a top scorer.

******************

CHAPTER ONE: RESPECT


In the summer, the Oilers spent a great deal of money on three players:

Ales Hemsky
Year 1 - 59 GP, 6 G, 30 PTS
Year 2 - 71 GP, 12 G, 34 PTS
Year 3 - 81 GP, 19 G, 77 PTS

At age 23, Hemsky signs for: $24.6 mil over 6 years

Shawn Horcoff
Year 1 - 49 GP, 9 G, 16 PTS
Year 2 - 61 GP, 8 G, 22 PTS
Year 3 - 78 GP, 12 G, 33 PTS
Year 4 - 80 GP, 15 G, 40 PTS
Year 5 - 79 GP, 22 G, 73 PTS

At age 28, Horcoff signs for: $10.8 mil over 3 years

Fernando Pisani
Year 1 - 35 GP, 8 G, 13 PTS
Year 2 - 76 GP, 16 G, 30 PTS
Year 3 - 80 GP, 18 G, 37 PTS

At age 29, Pisani signs for: $10 mil over 4 years

If you add up their stats, the three players total 145 goals in 11 seasons, with two 50+ point years and ONE twenty goal season.

In the summer, these three players were handed $45.4 million over 13 seasons.

That's an annual average of $3.5 million per season each for Hemsky, Horcoff and Pisani.

In eleven seasons Smyth scored 265 goals and the most he earned in a season was $3.5 mil:



Ryan Smyth
Year 1 - 48 GP, 2 G, 11 PTS ** $513,450
Year 2 - 82 GP, 39 G, 61 PTS ** $490,979
Year 3 - 65 GP, 20 G, 33 PTS ** $314,730
Year 4 - 71 GP, 13 G, 31 PTS ** $900,000
Year 5 - 82 GP, 28 G, 54 PTS ** $675,000
Year 6 - 82 GP, 31 G, 70 PTS ** $1.8 mil
Year 7 - 61 GP, 15 G, 50 PTS ** $2.525 mil
Year 8 - 66 GP, 27 G, 61 PTS ** $3.025 mil
Year 9 - 82 GP, 23 G, 59 PTS ** $3.45 mil
Year 10 - 75 GP, 36 G, 66 PTS ** $3.5 mil
Year 11 - 53 GP, 31 G, 53 PTS ** $3.5 mil

The Oilers should have taken care of their star player while they had their checkbook out in the summer. It truly showed a lack of respect for Smyth to take this right down to the deadline when those three players received an average salary equivalent to Smyth's highest annual salary.

When Ryan was making $3.5 mil a year (this year and last) he was one of the top goal scorers in hockey. Those three contracts were given out after Horcoff and Hemsky each had just one good year, and Pisani had one playoff run to remember.

******************

CHAPTER TWO: REWARDING LOYALTY


As I mentioned earlier, nobody really has sympathy for underpaid hockey players. But Smyth has played for less and remained loyal to the city and to the organization throughout his career.

I took a quick look at players from the 94 draft (when Smyth went #6 overall) plus the draft classes immediately before and after Smyth's year. Using data from hockeyzoneplus.com, here is how much some of the players have earned thus far in their careers:

Total accumulated salary (career):

Paul Kariya $64,686,100.00
Jarome Iginla $34,025,000.00
Saku Koivu $32,670,000.00
Daniel Alfredsson $32,472,431.00
Jason Allison $31,700,000.00
Jason Arnott $28,736,198.00
Pavol Demitra $27,640,000.00
Chris Gratton $26,193,000.00
Todd Bertuzzi $25,813,413.00
Patrick Elias $23,924,498.00
Jeff Friesen $23,033,000.00
Miro Satan $21,866,861.00
Ryan Smyth $20,982,013.00

Petr Sykora $20,576,000.00
Radek Bonk $19,587,499.00
Shane Doan $18,544,000.00
Steve Sullivan $18,425,000.00
Milan Hejduk $17,500,000.00

Of course that doesn't include goalies or defencemen but you could always add Theodore ($24,619,968), Pronger ($59,950,500), Jovanovski ($30,240,000), Redden ($26,649,000), McCabe ($25,683,000), Ohlund ($22,250,000) and Tverdovsky ($21,120,000) to the mix as well.

When you go down that list and think of how many of those players you would want on your team over Smyth, it's clear that he's offered a significant hometown discount for his services in recent years.

To put it simply, look at how the other Canadian teams have taken care of their stars - Iginla, Koivu and Alfredsson are all between $32 mil and $34 mil.

Smyth is under $21 mil, less than Gratton, Friesen and Satan and slightly more than Sykora and Bonk.



This time the Oilers should have stepped up and met his asking price. If it was just a couple hundred thousand separating the parties, than I'm guessing it was a matter of principle more than anything. Smyth should have been rewarded for his loyalty to the organization, even if that meant slightly overpaying him. If they were willing to go to $5.4, what's the difference anyways?

******************

CHAPTER THREE: MARKET VALUE


One could easily make the argument that $5.7 mil is a fair number for Ryan Smyth.

Taking the past two seasons combined, Smyth had 67 goals in 128 games. The 67 goals puts him in 15th in the league over that span, slightly ahead of Jokinen, Iginla and Alfredsson.

When you take into account that Smyth missed a few games this year and last, only Jagr (0.61 GPG), Gagne (0.61 GPG), Heatley (0.60 GPG), Kovalchuk (0.59 GPG), Cheechoo (0.56 GPG), Selanne (0.54 GPG) and Jagr (0.53 GPG) have scored at a better pace since the lockout.


Isn't an elite goal scorer worth $5.7 mil a season? Well a player's value can only be determined by what a team is willing to pay. And when you consider the following deals signed this year, I think it's a no-brainer:

Chara: 5 years, $37.5 mil
Savard: 4 years, $20 mil
Johnsson: 4 years, $19.4 mil
Kubina: 4 years, $20 mil
McCabe: 5 years, $28.75 mil
Redden: 2 years, $13 mil
Blake: 2 years, $12 mil
Arnott: 5 years, $22.5 mil
Jovanovski: 5 years, $32.5 mil
Doan: 5 years, $23 mil
Weight: 2 years, $7 mil
Luongo: 4 years, $27 mil
Havlat: 3 years, $18 mil
Tanguay: 3 years, $15.75 mil
Gaborik: 3 years, $19 mil
Elias: 7 years, $42 mil
Briere: 1 year, $5 mil
Gomez: 1 year, $5 mil

If you think that Smyth will be easily replaced, you're mistaken. The Oilers will have trouble attracting top flight talent, even if they are willing to pay market prices, due to intense competition between teams.

I've read suggestions that Smyth could potentially be replaced by two players for the same price, but when you consider how far $5.7 mil goes these days, it's very disturbing. Guys who get between $2.5 mil and $3.5 mil per on the open market are not impact players. Would you rather have two of these guys, or Ryan Smyth?

Samsonov, Sturm, Corvo, Peca, Langenbrunner, Witt, Cullen, Straka, Havlid, Salei, Kuba, Pothier, Pisani, Sykora, Parrish, Mitchell, Morris, Boynton, Modin

Ryan Smyth was worth $5.7 mil a year to this team and will surely get that much or more on the open market.

******************

EPILOGUE:


How do you run out of time when you're negotiating with your franchise player and rush to make a deal?

I wonder if all those people who laugh over 15-year contracts are also laughing about a team that can't keep it's star despite revenue sharing and cost certainty.

For all those who are saying the Islanders overpaid, I disagree. Yes the Oilers did receive the equivalent of three 1st rounders, but didn't acquire any blue chip prospects. There is a great difference between a top 5 pick and the number 15 pick overall. Both Nilsson and O'Marra were drafted 15th, and in all liklihood the pick this year will be in the same neighborhood. So let's take a look at twenty years of 15th overall picks and how many NHL games they've each played to date:

1983 Bob Errey 895
1984 Trevor Stienburg 71
1985 David Latta 36
1986 Mark Pederson 169
1987 Joe Sakic 1301
1988 Reggie Savage 34
1989 Jason Soules 0
1990 Mark Greig 125
1991 Alexei Kovalev 977
1992 Jason Bowen 77
1993 Mats Lindgren 387
1994 Alexander Kharlamov 0
1995 Jeff Ware 21
1996 Dainius Zubrus 670
1997 Matt Zultek 0
1998 Mathieu Chouinard 1
1999 Scott Kelman 0
2000 Artem Kryukov 0
2001 Igor Knyazev 0
2002 Jesse Niinimaki 0

For every Sakic, there is a Stienberg, Soules and Reggie Savage. For every Kovalev, there is a Kelman, Kryukov and Kharlamov. In fact, only four of the twenty - Sakic, Kovalev, Errey and Zubrus have gone on to successful careers. That's just 20%.


So where do the Oilers possibly go from here?

Well I have one suggestion. Considering how close the negotiations apparently were (Mr. Meehan has said that up until 2:40 he thought the deal would get done), I'd send Kevin Lowe, Craig MacTavish and anyone else in the organization who would be willing, to go knock on Ryan Smyth's door at 12:01 am the night free agency starts with a jersey for him. I'd do anything possible to get him to re-sign for that $5.7 mil before he gets a chance to talk to Detroit or Anaheim, because this guy is an Oiler and should be in Edmonton with his heart.

Over the years we've seen his blood and teeth on the ice at Rexall. Smyth has given everything he has to this organization. I think it's extremely unfortunate to all involved that they didn't find a way to keep him.

******************

TONIGHT'S GAMES:

That's (hopefully) my last word on the trade deadline. It's all looking ahead and focusing on the action on the ice from here on in.

Just three games tonight but some thrilling action..

The Sens outplayed Carolina for much of the game and Emery shined in the third to pickup shutout #5.

It's too bad that people still think of the Yashin-Bonk-Havlat-Lalime Sens when they talk about how this team will do in the playoffs.

We'll probably hear more about no-touch icing after Gleason took a dangerous hit from Neil in the third. I really don't know why there is still resistance..

Carolina lost back-to-back games against Ottawa which will definitely hurt their playoff chances. Something just isn't right with this team - they came out way too flat for such an important game.

Freakin' Saprykin made his debut and played just 7:36, registering just 1 shot on goal. Smart move by Freakin' to decide not to wear #91 at least..

Flames fans may have been getting worried tonight but I just knew the Flames would pull it out. How did I know? They were at home..

Regehr tied it up pretty late with a shot through traffic that had eyes.

Backstrom left the game after the first with a lower-body injury. Still no word on Fernandez either.

These teams play three more times the rest of the way - 4 in 19 is a bit much..

Young Josh Harding came on for Backstrom and almost picked up his first win of the year. He played extremely well, especially considering the circumstances.

Iginla was clutch in the shootout as he wired home a wrister for the only goal of the SO.

Kiprusoff had a nice pokecheck on Saku2.

In the play of the night (although there were a few great ones) on the final shot, PMB cut in from the boards, did a spin-o-rama and Kipper stuck with him somehow and got his pad on the shot.

Kipper was 0-4 and 1-11 for his career in the shootout. In those four losses he'd stopped just 2 of 9 shots.

The three-point game isn't good news for the very slim homes of Edmonton and Colorado. Calgary and Vancouver now have 77 points and Minnesota has 76.

The Nashville-San Jose game was a treat to watch. I wish this was a playoff game so I could have kept watching all night.

Forsberg had quite a bit of jump tonight, especially in OT.

Guerin played his first for SJ and didn't look at all out of place with Thornton/Cheechoo in playing 20:30 but couldn't get on the scoresheet.

Billy couldn't become the fourth player to score in his first two minutes with a new team. From Elias Sports Bureau, via the NHL:

Kyle Calder, acquired by Detroit in a three-way trade on Monday, scored at the 1:46 mark of the first period in his Red Wings debut in Chicago on Tuesday night. This season, three other NHL players scored a goal within the first two minutes of their first game with a team: Dan Hinote for St. Louis (Oct. 5 at 0:36), J.P. Dumont for Nashville (Oct. 5 at 0:39) and Todd Fedoruk for Philadelphia (Dec. 2 at 1:37).

Radulov made a sweet move, showing his great hands in the shootout by going to the backhand and tucking it through Nabokov's legs. Radulov also scored a PP goal earlier, assisted from Weber and Suter - three great young players combining for a huge goal.

Great goaltending tonight by both Vokoun and Nabokov. Vokoun made some huge stops throughout and what a save by Nabokov as time expired in OT.. He also stopped Erat earlier in the game on a penalty shot.

In the shootout, Dumont came in and slid it through Nabokov's legs to end the game. The shootout felt really anitclimactic for this one. Still better than ending in a tie though.

Have a great Thursday,

Danny Tolensky - [email protected]
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