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Five key factors in drafting Alexei Cherepanov |
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In a series of recent email exchanges with an NHL scout, I learned a few of the issues teams near the top of the NHL draft may be consideringing when evaluating Alexei Cherepanov against his North American competitors.
Interestingly, in this one scout's opinion at least, the lack of a transfer agreement was not a huge limiting factor in drafting Cherepanov. (He admitted others do view it as a concern).
He pointed out that 1) Russian team efforts to block top young players from coming over have proven unsuccesful so far, 2) Cherepanov probably won't be brought over from Russia for another couple seasons(he didn't think Cherepanov would opt for a team in the CHL), and 3) Vladislav Tretiak has been working hard to create some kind of compromise between the Russian Hockey Federation, IIHF and NHL-- which is the only major holdup remaining on a new transfer agreement to replace the one that expired at the start of this season.
On the other hand, these issues may push him out of the top 3 in the draft, depending on where teams rank the top North American prospects against him at the end of the season:
1) Cherepanov was not very well known prior to this season. Unlike other players scouts have watched extensively, Cherepanov (who comes from southwestern Siberia) was not watched very widely until the last year or so.
2) Although Cherepanov was a dominating player for Avangard Juniors (posting 31 goals and 61 points in 28 games before moving up), his collection of skills really didn't jump out until this year. The scout says Cherepanov still lacks the speed of someone like Pavel Bure or the all-around skills of Alex Ovechkin.
3) While Cherepanov's stellar WJC against 19-year-old competition carries a lot of weight, teams also have to consider his quiet gold medal game against Canada and so-so performances in other tournaments (including the recent Five Nations Tournament against players his own age)
4)With Avangard, Cherepanov typically plays on a line with Anton Kuryanov, a center who has emerged as one of the best players in the RSL. Scouts need to evaluate how much of Cherepanov's immediate RSL success comes from the quality of (and his chemistry with) his center, and how much of it translates to the game over here.
By the way, Cherepanov has scored in two of the last three games for Avangard, earning star of the game honors while running his season totals to 15 goals and 26 points in 41 games.
5)When you are picking near the top of the draft, sometimes there is less of a tendency to swing for the fences if there's no clear consensus on player rankings and to aim instead for a safer pick who still has a decent upside.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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