(1) Last night's 5-2 blowout loss was a frustrating one indeed. I mentioned after the victory in Washington that the team needed to establish more of the same going forward in order to legitimize any kind of turn-around -- that is, winning the possession battle (something Ottawa's done next to never this year)
and, consequently, winning the scoring battle.
I think the working theory with most teams who have decent special teams (I think the team's power-play is above average, maybe better than that; I think the penalty kill is below average and has been for a while) and decent goaltending is that, if you can dominate the most important game-state of even-strength, you can win more hockey games than not. After all, it's what Ottawa's more or less done for the last two years under Paul MacLean.
This year has been a nightmare on that front. Incidentally, I've found it difficult to ever really blame the goaltending at any one point prior to last night's games. In a situation where you are just getting absolutely smoked on the shot-clock night-in and night-out, it's hard to fault the only guy on the ice who can't drive possession in either direction.
So, the good news: Ottawa looked much, much better at evens again last night. They out-shot Vancouver in "score close" situations, and just blasted them over the course of the game; that, primarily, due to score effects. There's obviously been a super low bar set by this team this year on that front, but it's still a good thing to see. Repeat it, you'll win more regularly.
Unless, of course, you give up four goals on the first fifteen shots.
Do you blame Craig Anderson for a stinker performance? I mean, I guess he shoulders a good portion of it, if only because he's been bad all season long. This is a really good data-point (again) as to why goaltender regression over a long sample is inevitable. Last year, not a single puck could beat him in any direction. This year, he's getting whiplash watching the red light flicker on behind him. His .894 SV% and 3.54 GAA are nothing better than fringe back-up numbers at this point. Again, goaltender regression: he'll correct this at some point and move back towards his career averages. Like last year was far too high, this year was far too low.
I can't put all of the blame on Anderson here, though. I've defended MacLean at most every turn so far this year, but I cannot for the life of me figure out his line of decision making in the net. I've said this a half-dozen times already, but maybe the
only thing
we know about goaltenders is that their save percentages tail wildly in the event that they play both legs of a back-to-back situation. Barring some extreme depth chart talent disparity (like, you've got Henrik Lundqvist and an AHL call-up), the reasonable argument is to always give the first goalie rest during the second-game.
What makes this most objectionable? Anderson's been totally out-played by "back-up" Robin Lehner to start the year. MacLean seems to think that Anderson, still, is a better option than Lehner. It's hard to really gauge what Anderson is at this point because he's in such a slump, but Lehner's numbers through the first 1000+ shots of his career have been exceptional. Behind the same defense and same team this season, Lehner's went .937 SV% and 2.38 GAA -- which, mind you, are within a reasonable standard deviation of his career numbers.
I don't think this is a difficult thing to figure out, either way. Even if the idea is that both goalies are pretty comparable, it's mind-boggling you'd go with the same guy twice in two days. It was dumb when MacLean did it a week ago, and I said as much. It was even dumber when MacLean did it last night, and I said as much. The good thing is that both goalies gave up a bunch of goals in those spots.
I say good thing because perhaps the 0-for-2 on that front will stop MacLean from doing it any further.
(2) Here's something I never thought I'd say in a thousand lifetimes: Joe Corvo, relatively speaking, is a strong presence on the back-end.
Again, low bar here. His competition after the first-pairing is as bad as it gets around the National Hockey League. I wrote yesterday though that in the Washington game, his positives -- his ability to exit the zone, move the puck, and sustain offensive pressure from the blue-line in -- definitively out-weighed his classic Joe Corvo moments in the defensive zone.
You're not going to get rid of those defensive lapses at this point in his career. That's who he is. But what makes Corvo a better option than Jared Cowen, Eric Gryba, and even Mark Borowiecki is that when he's on the ice, the team's playing a hell of a lot more offense than defense. And that's a credit to Corvo, who doesn't make the same mistakes over, and over, and over with the puck.
And, he's an upgrade right now over Patrick Wiercioch, too. I don't know why Wiercioch has found himself in MacLean's doghouse for most of this year, but he hasn't done enough for me to justly defend his game, either. Too many lapses, not enough offense.
I don't know whether to laugh or to cry that Joe Corvo should be a guaranteed starter going forward, but it's the honest truth of the situation. He's better than most of the options right now. And, even knowing what he's capable of doing off of the puck, I trust him because he can drive possession in a second or third-pairing role. That's what this team needs.
(3) Very quietly, Clarke MacArthur -- who has led the team in possession (
measured by Relative Corsi) for most of the year -- has fallen into second place. Who jumped him? The kid, Mika Zibanejad.
Zibanejad's mostly blessed every line he's played on this season, including assisting Jason Spezza's much-maligned trio in a slow-but-steady turnaround. Last night, Zibanejad led all forwards in shot-attempt margin. On the ice, his unit generated 24 even-strength shots, yielding just nine in the process.
The cool thing is that he's also scoring a chunk of goals. I say it's the cool thing because a lot of time, coaches react to the raw scoring far too quickly, promoting guys who don't deserve it and are riding fluky percentages, or demote guys who don't deserve it and are getting bitten by the percentages soundly. Zibanejad's dominating possession and scoring goals, and I don't see how the coaching staff can sour on him at any point in the near future.
**
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